Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.13 · now $42.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, U has typically landed between $30.58 and $58.04 — a range of −27.4% to +37.8% from the issuance price $42.13.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,472 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where U has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $42.13 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.9 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.73–$48.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.58–$58.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,472 windows spanning 2020-09-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −66.5% | −66.5% | +3.9% |
| 2022-04-12 | −61.0% | −66.4% | +4.4% |
| 2022-04-14 | −59.5% | −66.0% | +2.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-14 | +79.9% | +0.0% | +79.9% |
| 2026-06-25 | +66.7% | +0.0% | +66.7% |
| 2022-07-13 | +65.3% | −0.9% | +69.3% |
1,472 overlapping windows · 2020-09-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
17%
−10.1%
n=6
Feb
33%
−12.1%
n=6
Mar
33%
−3.2%
n=6
Apr
50%
−5.0%
n=6
May
50%
−3.7%
n=6
Jun
33%
+5.0%
n=6
Jul
83%
+7.6%
n=6
Aug
83%
+12.6%
n=6
Sep
50%
−0.2%
n=6
Oct
33%
−2.4%
n=6
Nov
100%
+26.1%
n=6
Dec
50%
−1.3%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 31,609 @ $43.38 | $1.4M | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 673,802 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 11,947 @ $43.86 | $524K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 661,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 1,964 @ $44.81 | $88K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 705,411 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 24,817 @ $45.28 | $1.1M | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 679,543 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 19,455 @ $45.27 | $881K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 708,515 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Sale | 15,713 @ $45.28 | $711K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,541,801 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $45.95 | $55K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 678,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 1,140 @ $45.93 | $52K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 707,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Boyden Rebecca Berenice | officer | Sale | 940 @ $45.26 | $43K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 308,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Sale | 670 @ $45.96 | $31K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,541,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Boyden Rebecca Berenice | officer | Sale | 92 @ $45.92 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 308,413 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,099 @ $27.37 | $57K | −0.3% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 727,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Sale | 138,993 @ $27.18 | $3.8M | −8.2% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,557,514 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 24,021 @ $27.18 | $653K | −3.3% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 704,360 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 19,009 @ $27.18 | $517K | −2.5% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 730,069 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Sale | 13,247 @ $27.18 | $360K | −3.5% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 370,654 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Boyden Rebecca Berenice | officer | Sale | 952 @ $27.20 | $26K | −0.3% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 309,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 6,205 @ $21.03 | $130K | −0.8% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 728,381 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,541 @ $18.76 | $48K | −0.5% of holding | +20.3% | +120.6% | 548,425 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 12,196 @ $18.07 | $220K | −2.2% of holding | −1.1% | +123.5% | 533,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Sale | 10,578 @ $18.07 | $191K | −2.7% of holding | −1.1% | +123.5% | 383,901 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 10,164 @ $18.07 | $184K | −1.8% of holding | −1.1% | +123.5% | 550,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $47.00 | $2.4M | −5.4% of holding | −10.5% | −49.9% | 873,146 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Helgason David | director | Sale | 300,000 @ $49.16 | $14.7M | −5.2% of holding | −8.2% | −52.3% | 5,439,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Helgason David | director | Sale | 93,312 @ $51.16 | $4.8M | −1.6% of holding | −8.2% | −52.3% | 5,739,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 86,423 @ $50.58 | $4.4M | −8.2% of holding | −8.2% | −52.3% | 961,723 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 37,200 @ $51.42 | $1.9M | −3.9% of holding | −8.2% | −52.3% | 924,523 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Helgason David | director | Sale | 8,347 @ $49.16 | $410K | −52.2% of holding | −8.2% | −52.3% | 7,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 1,377 @ $52.08 | $72K | −0.1% of holding | −8.2% | −52.3% | 923,146 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Helgason David | director | Sale | 306,688 @ $50.16 | $15.4M | −5.0% of holding | −4.9% | −52.9% | 5,832,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Sale | 14,407 @ $50.01 | $720K | −3.5% of holding | −4.9% | −52.9% | 394,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 187,130 @ $41.80 | $7.8M | −14.4% of holding | +1.8% | −43.8% | 1,111,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 62,870 @ $42.32 | $2.7M | −5.7% of holding | +1.8% | −43.8% | 1,048,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 1,988 @ $42.47 | $84K | −0.4% of holding | +5.3% | −39.4% | 561,130 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 27,742 @ $42.79 | $1.2M | −4.8% of holding | +4.6% | −36.5% | 546,129 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Sale | 25,125 @ $40.89 | $1.0M | −2.0% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 1,208,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 25,121 @ $40.89 | $1.0M | −4.2% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 578,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 21,231 @ $40.89 | $868K | −3.5% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 587,359 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 13,322 @ $42.11 | $561K | −2.3% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 565,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Sale | 13,084 @ $41.33 | $541K | −3.1% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 409,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Sale | 11,251 @ $42.04 | $473K | −0.9% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 1,197,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 9,699 @ $42.05 | $408K | −1.7% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 577,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Sale | 4,649 @ $42.43 | $197K | −0.4% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 1,192,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 3,789 @ $42.42 | $161K | −0.7% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 573,871 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Blum Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,250 @ $42.46 | $96K | −0.4% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 563,118 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Sale | 600 @ $42.47 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | +3.5% | −41.1% | 408,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Sale | 29,599 @ $41.41 | $1.2M | −6.5% of holding | +5.7% | −41.5% | 422,570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Sale | 817 @ $36.60 | $30K | −0.2% of holding | +18.5% | −40.5% | 452,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Dovrat Shlomo | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $42.87 | $1.3M | −15.9% of holding | +17.9% | −44.3% | 159,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 14,914 @ $42.75 | $638K | −2.4% of holding | +12.7% | −47.2% | 608,590 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-06 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 12,131 @ $41.01 | $497K | −1.9% of holding | +20.8% | −43.6% | 626,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Sale | 2,869 @ $41.74 | $120K | −0.5% of holding | +20.8% | −43.6% | 623,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 234,701 @ $37.94 | $8.9M | −15.2% of holding | +18.7% | −35.3% | 1,313,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 15,299 @ $38.55 | $590K | −1.2% of holding | +18.7% | −35.3% | 1,298,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Sale | 802 @ $36.22 | $29K | −0.2% of holding | +4.1% | −31.5% | 452,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Gupta Anirma | officer | Sale | 2,734 @ $37.85 | $103K | −1.5% of holding | −1.7% | −38.1% | 175,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 206,544 @ $39.72 | $8.2M | −11.5% of holding | −7.4% | −39.3% | 1,591,602 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 43,456 @ $40.36 | $1.8M | −2.7% of holding | −7.4% | −39.3% | 1,548,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Sale | 645 @ $46.52 | $30K | −0.1% of holding | −19.6% | −57.9% | 453,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Sale | 115,620 @ $45.50 | $5.3M | −5.9% of holding | −21.9% | −58.9% | 1,832,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Award / grant | 880,000 | 880,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Other acquisition | 461,106 | 1,083,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Durban Egon | director | Other acquisition | 21,537 | 21,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Durban Egon | director | Other acquisition | 21,537 | 21,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Durban Egon | director | Other acquisition | 21,537 | 21,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Durban Egon | director | Other acquisition | 21,537 | 21,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Lieb Michael | officer | Award / grant | 38,948 | 38,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Sisco Daly Robynne | director | Award / grant | 7,995 | 26,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Kim Bernard Jin | director | Award / grant | 7,995 | 22,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | SLTA IV (GP), L.L.C. | director | Award / grant | 16,176 | 80,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Schuler Barry | director | Award / grant | 13,015 | 59,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Smith Keisha | director | Award / grant | 10,226 | 50,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Whitehurst James M | director | Award / grant | 8,181 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 13,201 | 26,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Dovrat Shlomo | director | Award / grant | 12,086 | 61,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Kim Bernard Jin | director | Award / grant | 14,743 | 14,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Blum Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 200,653 | 749,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Boyden Rebecca Berenice | officer | Award / grant | 45,146 | 310,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Award / grant | 200,653 | 734,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Award / grant | 503,966 | 1,696,507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Option exercise | 120,000 | 1,342,812 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Option exercise | 120,000 | 1,880,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Bar-Zeev Tomer | director | Award / grant | 11,762 | 759,861 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Helgason David | director | Award / grant | 7,635 | 15,982 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | SLTA IV (GP), L.L.C. | director | Award / grant | 21,873 | 64,670 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 13,206 | 65,089 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Schmidt Campbell Mary | director | Award / grant | 7,635 | 44,235 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Schuler Barry | director | Award / grant | 13,206 | 46,813 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Whitehurst James M | director | Award / grant | 14,238 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Sisco Daly Robynne | director | Award / grant | 7,635 | 18,128 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Dovrat Shlomo | director | Award / grant | 12,174 | 49,509 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Smith Keisha | director | Award / grant | 10,730 | 40,114 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Gupta Anirma | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 692,942 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Award / grant | 130,264 | 668,380 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Blum Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 225,000 | 720,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Bromberg Matthew S | director | Award / grant | 319,829 | 1,355,884 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | The Felix | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 514,467 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Barrysmith Mark | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 484,862 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Yahes Jarrod | officer | Award / grant | 538,116 | 538,116 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-02-05 | 2024-01-10 | $1–15K |
| Deborah Ross | House | exchange | 2023-05-14 | 2022-11-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-12-06 | 2022-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-05-06 | 2022-04-21 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-05-06 | 2022-04-11 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.