Issued 2026-09-25 at $21.76 · now $21.76 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, TYRA has typically landed between $15.95 and $29.63 — a range of −26.7% to +36.2% from the issuance price $21.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,242 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-15 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($21.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TYRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $21.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.91 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.27–$24.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.95–$29.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,242 windows spanning 2021-09-15 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-17 | −53.3% | −53.3% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-16 | −50.2% | −50.2% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-18 | −48.7% | −48.7% | +5.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-10-06 | +128.2% | +0.0% | +128.2% |
| 2021-10-05 | +115.2% | +0.0% | +115.2% |
| 2023-01-06 | +97.5% | +0.0% | +97.5% |
1,242 overlapping windows · 2021-09-15 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Safety and Preliminary Anti-Tumor Activity of TYRA-300 in Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma and Other Solid Tumors With FGFR3 Gene Alterations (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Efficacy and Safety of TYRA-300 in Participants With FGFR3 Altered Low Grade, Intermediate Risk Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of TYRA-300 in Children With Achondroplasia: BEACH301 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2A/B Efficacy and Safety of Dabogratinib in Participants With Low Grade Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+10.2%
n=5
Feb
60%
+10.6%
n=5
Mar
40%
−2.3%
n=5
Apr
40%
−7.3%
n=5
May
20%
−5.4%
n=5
Jun
60%
+4.3%
n=5
Jul
60%
+17.7%
n=5
Aug
60%
−7.6%
n=5
Sep
60%
+4.8%
n=5
Oct
40%
−5.1%
n=5
Nov
80%
+10.1%
n=5
Dec
60%
−2.4%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 9,078,529 @ $22.03 | $200.0M | +357.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,616,986 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Verjee Rehan | director | Purchase | 972 @ $20.58 | $20K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 972 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Sale | 14,295 @ $36.97 | $529K | −33.6% of holding | −6.3% | −56.1% | 28,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 5,872 @ $33.37 | $196K | −3.8% of holding | +28.6% | −27.9% | 146,981 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 2,128 @ $31.50 | $67K | −1.4% of holding | +28.6% | −27.9% | 152,853 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 6,983 @ $28.44 | $199K | −4.3% of holding | +4.7% | +3.4% | 155,998 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 1,017 @ $29.08 | $30K | −0.7% of holding | +4.7% | +3.4% | 154,981 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | MORE ROBERT J | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $25.00 | $250K | −0.3% of holding | +19.9% | +10.7% | 3,823,425 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $22.64 | $181K | −4.7% of holding | +27.5% | +14.0% | 162,981 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | MORE ROBERT J | director | Sale | 246,871 @ $20.25 | $5.0M | −6.1% of holding | +17.6% | +42.5% | 3,833,425 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 49,956 @ $16.32 | $815K | −22.6% of holding | +50.5% | +82.2% | 170,981 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 75,633 @ $16.07 | $1.2M | −25.5% of holding | +40.8% | +92.7% | 220,937 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 18,572 @ $16.11 | $299K | −5.9% of holding | +41.3% | +98.1% | 298,070 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $17.07 | $26K | −0.5% of holding | +41.3% | +98.1% | 296,570 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 110,228 @ $16.02 | $1.8M | −25.8% of holding | +45.0% | +104.9% | 316,642 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Sale | 1,111 @ $16.00 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | +40.6% | +118.2% | 426,870 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Sale | 9,568 @ $9.78 | $94K | −25.3% of holding | +6.1% | +124.9% | 28,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Sale | 10 @ $10.35 | $104 | −0.0% of holding | +3.0% | +125.3% | 37,799 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 11,813 @ $10.13 | $120K | +0.1% of holding | +1.7% | +102.8% | 10,259,291 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-16 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Sale | 6,814 @ $10.38 | $71K | −15.3% of holding | +1.7% | +102.8% | 37,809 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 120,167 @ $10.20 | $1.2M | +1.2% of holding | −0.2% | +102.1% | 10,247,478 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $10.31 | $155K | −25.2% of holding | −0.2% | +102.1% | 44,623 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 31,307 @ $10.20 | $319K | +0.3% of holding | −5.3% | +106.0% | 10,127,311 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $10.31 | $309K | −33.5% of holding | −5.3% | +106.0% | 59,623 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 186,850 @ $10.19 | $1.9M | +1.9% of holding | −4.9% | +107.6% | 10,096,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 213,334 @ $10.04 | $2.1M | +2.2% of holding | −7.5% | +101.3% | 9,909,154 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 997,864 @ $9.63 | $9.6M | +11.5% of holding | −10.8% | +96.1% | 9,695,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 3,511 @ $13.76 | $48K | −0.8% of holding | −15.3% | −26.6% | 443,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 1,890 @ $13.76 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | −15.3% | −26.6% | 3,700,705 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-23 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 4,825 @ $16.26 | $78K | −0.1% of holding | −19.0% | −37.0% | 3,702,595 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 3,993 @ $16.36 | $65K | −0.1% of holding | −20.9% | −37.9% | 3,707,420 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-17 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 12,808 @ $16.40 | $210K | −0.3% of holding | −23.6% | −42.3% | 3,711,413 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 461 @ $16.40 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | −23.6% | −42.3% | 447,396 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 6,944 @ $16.29 | $113K | −0.2% of holding | −25.4% | −41.2% | 3,724,221 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 835 @ $16.29 | $14K | −0.2% of holding | −25.4% | −41.2% | 447,857 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-25 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 4,706 @ $16.84 | $79K | −0.1% of holding | −10.1% | −43.0% | 3,731,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-25 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 566 @ $16.84 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −10.1% | −43.0% | 448,692 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-08 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,220,681 @ $16.25 | $19.8M | +16.3% of holding | −0.0% | −38.8% | 8,697,956 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-07 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 19,720 @ $17.32 | $342K | −0.5% of holding | −8.2% | −41.0% | 3,735,871 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-07 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 2,371 @ $17.32 | $41K | −0.5% of holding | −8.2% | −41.0% | 449,258 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-06 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 46,856 @ $17.18 | $805K | −1.2% of holding | −11.0% | −39.3% | 3,755,591 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-06 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 5,635 @ $17.18 | $97K | −1.2% of holding | −11.0% | −39.3% | 451,629 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-05 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 9,367 @ $16.77 | $157K | −0.2% of holding | −14.7% | −38.3% | 3,802,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-05 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 1,126 @ $16.77 | $19K | −0.2% of holding | −14.7% | −38.3% | 457,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-04 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 960 @ $17.01 | $16K | −0.0% of holding | −13.0% | −38.5% | 3,811,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-04 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 116 @ $17.01 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −13.0% | −38.5% | 458,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-01 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 23,938 @ $16.54 | $396K | −0.6% of holding | −12.7% | −43.2% | 3,813,378 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-01 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 2,878 @ $16.54 | $48K | −0.6% of holding | −12.7% | −43.2% | 458,579 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-01 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 604 @ $17.16 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | −12.7% | −43.2% | 3,812,774 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-01 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 73 @ $17.16 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −12.7% | −43.2% | 458,506 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-31 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 89,390 @ $16.46 | $1.5M | −2.3% of holding | −11.1% | −38.9% | 3,837,316 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-31 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 10,750 @ $16.46 | $177K | −2.3% of holding | −11.1% | −38.9% | 461,457 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-30 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 9,889 @ $16.17 | $160K | −0.3% of holding | −5.7% | −32.0% | 3,926,706 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-30 | Fuhrman Alan | director | Purchase | 9,500 @ $16.00 | $152K | +283.7% of holding | −5.7% | −32.0% | 12,849 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-30 | Kjellson Nina S | director | Sale | 1,189 @ $16.17 | $19K | −0.3% of holding | −5.7% | −32.0% | 472,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-21 | Harris Todd | director | Sale | 13,188 @ $28.16 | $371K | −1.0% of holding | −44.0% | −58.7% | 1,355,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-21 | Harris Todd | director | Sale | 5,896 @ $27.32 | $161K | −0.4% of holding | −44.0% | −58.7% | 1,369,115 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-18 | Harris Todd | director | Sale | 43,636 @ $27.01 | $1.2M | −3.1% of holding | −44.0% | −55.5% | 1,375,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-17 | Harris Todd | director | Sale | 15,194 @ $25.84 | $393K | −1.1% of holding | −41.3% | −54.7% | 1,418,847 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-17 | Harris Todd | director | Sale | 200 @ $26.37 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −41.3% | −54.7% | 1,418,647 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
76 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Rueb Yuliya | officer | Award / grant | 2,925 | 11,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Fuhrman Alan | director | Award / grant | 951 | 37,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Harris Todd | director | Award / grant | 864 | 1,438,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 13,160 | 13,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Gulfo Adele M. | director | Award / grant | 13,160 | 13,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Verjee Rehan | director | Award / grant | 13,160 | 13,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Simson Jake | director | Award / grant | 13,160 | 13,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Rothenberg Stephen Michael | director | Award / grant | 13,160 | 13,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Moran Susan | director | Award / grant | 13,160 | 13,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | MORE ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 13,160 | 13,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Harris Todd | director | Award / grant | 265,000 | 265,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Rueb Yuliya | officer | Award / grant | 8,333 | 43,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Rueb Yuliya | officer | Award / grant | 28,000 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Warner Douglas J | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Warner Douglas J | officer | Award / grant | 85,000 | 85,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fuhrman Alan | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 36,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fuhrman Alan | director | Award / grant | 67,000 | 67,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ashar Bhavesh | officer | Award / grant | 50,295 | 50,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ashar Bhavesh | officer | Award / grant | 15,013 | 15,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Harris Todd | director | Award / grant | 79,000 | 1,437,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Dable Habib J | director | Award / grant | 44,400 | 44,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Disposition | 53,172 | 28,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Option exercise | 53,172 | 81,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Option exercise | 53,172 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Option exercise | 14,295 | 42,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Option exercise | 14,295 | 53,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Harris Todd | director | Award / grant | 1,463 | 1,358,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fuhrman Alan | director | Award / grant | 1,376 | 16,164 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Ashar Bhavesh | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Fuhrman Alan | director | Award / grant | 701 | 14,788 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Fuhrman Alan | director | Award / grant | 170,000 | 170,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Harris Todd | director | Award / grant | 570,000 | 570,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Warner Douglas J | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Bensen Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 170,000 | 170,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Simson Jake | director | Award / grant | 22,200 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Moran Susan | director | Award / grant | 22,200 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Rothenberg Stephen Michael | director | Award / grant | 22,200 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Award / grant | 22,200 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Verjee Rehan | director | Award / grant | 22,200 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 22,200 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.