Issued 2026-09-17 at $341.57 · now $341.57 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, TYL has typically landed between $297.98 and $386.78 — a range of −12.8% to +13.2% from the issuance price $341.57.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,686 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($341.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TYL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $341.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $341.57 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $340.42 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $323.43–$357.41
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $297.98–$386.78
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-13 | −35.2% | −35.2% | +2.0% |
| 2026-01-14 | −32.8% | −36.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-15 | −30.0% | −35.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-12 | +28.2% | −1.0% | +29.2% |
| 2011-10-03 | +27.6% | +0.0% | +32.5% |
| 2011-09-28 | +27.4% | −3.4% | +27.4% |
4,686 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$419.54
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$247.64
- Analyst target · range $340.00–$543.00$440.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-17$341.57
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 9,250 @ $372.79 | $3.4M | −8.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 100,392 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Sale | 8,500 @ $356.44 | $3.0M | −52.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,784 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Carter Glenn A | director | Sale | 1,624 @ $349.14 | $567K | −23.5% of holding | −10.4% | −17.9% | 5,298 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Sale | 1,662 @ $371.17 | $617K | −17.1% of holding | −4.8% | −10.4% | 8,034 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Sale | 1,379 @ $370.16 | $510K | −12.5% of holding | −4.8% | −10.4% | 9,696 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Sale | 1,133 @ $368.82 | $418K | −9.3% of holding | −4.8% | −10.4% | 11,075 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Sale | 720 @ $367.60 | $265K | −5.6% of holding | −4.8% | −10.4% | 12,208 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Sale | 280 @ $371.93 | $104K | −3.5% of holding | −4.8% | −10.4% | 7,754 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Pope Daniel M | director | Sale | 500 @ $355.40 | $178K | −14.8% of holding | +1.5% | −7.4% | 2,871 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Teed Andrew D. | director | Purchase | 1,600 @ $309.91 | $496K | +45.5% of holding | +10.6% | −0.4% | 5,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Diaz-Pedrosa Abigail Marshall | officer | Purchase | 610 @ $325.08 | $198K | +118.9% of holding | +14.8% | −1.0% | 1,123 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $448.51 | $449K | −5.5% of holding | −2.2% | −45.1% | 17,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $458.65 | $459K | −5.8% of holding | −2.4% | −45.2% | 16,148 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Carter Glenn A | director | Sale | 500 @ $458.73 | $229K | −13.6% of holding | −2.4% | −45.2% | 3,172 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $469.08 | $469K | −7.3% of holding | −4.6% | −46.2% | 12,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Carter Glenn A | director | Sale | 750 @ $538.30 | $404K | −19.1% of holding | −6.6% | −37.5% | 3,172 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 2,397 @ $559.32 | $1.3M | −21.8% of holding | −11.1% | −42.2% | 8,586 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 1,463 @ $562.83 | $823K | −17.3% of holding | −11.1% | −42.2% | 6,983 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 103 @ $560.30 | $58K | −1.2% of holding | −11.1% | −42.2% | 8,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 37 @ $562.04 | $21K | −0.4% of holding | −11.1% | −42.2% | 8,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 925 @ $552.25 | $511K | −8.2% of holding | −7.4% | −42.6% | 10,308 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 822 @ $554.69 | $456K | −8.3% of holding | −7.4% | −42.6% | 9,049 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 705 @ $558.01 | $393K | −8.5% of holding | −7.4% | −42.6% | 7,635 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 652 @ $558.98 | $364K | −8.5% of holding | −7.4% | −42.6% | 6,983 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 539 @ $556.47 | $300K | −6.1% of holding | −7.4% | −42.6% | 8,340 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 437 @ $553.72 | $242K | −4.2% of holding | −7.4% | −42.6% | 9,871 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | MARR JOHN S JR | director | Sale | 170 @ $555.57 | $94K | −1.9% of holding | −7.4% | −42.6% | 8,879 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 1,224 @ $584.71 | $716K | −1.4% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 85,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 700 @ $594.42 | $416K | −0.8% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 82,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 532 @ $585.41 | $311K | −0.6% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 84,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 500 @ $595.58 | $298K | −0.6% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 81,875 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 469 @ $583.11 | $273K | −0.5% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 86,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 400 @ $591.29 | $237K | −0.5% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 83,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 400 @ $587.90 | $235K | −0.5% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 84,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 352 @ $592.07 | $208K | −0.4% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 83,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 273 @ $586.32 | $160K | −0.3% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 84,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 200 @ $589.67 | $118K | −0.2% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 83,927 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 100 @ $597.82 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 81,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 100 @ $593.22 | $59K | −0.1% of holding | −9.1% | −47.8% | 83,075 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Cline Brenda A | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $616.65 | $1.5M | −49.8% of holding | −10.8% | −52.0% | 2,519 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 1,291 @ $581.87 | $751K | −1.5% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 83,735 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 980 @ $584.19 | $573K | −1.2% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 82,106 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 915 @ $575.34 | $526K | −1.1% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 86,110 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 649 @ $582.84 | $378K | −0.8% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 83,086 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 392 @ $576.47 | $226K | −0.5% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 85,718 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 269 @ $578.75 | $156K | −0.3% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 85,223 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 226 @ $577.83 | $131K | −0.3% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 85,492 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 206 @ $585.44 | $121K | −0.3% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 81,900 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 197 @ $580.62 | $114K | −0.2% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 85,026 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 78 @ $586.24 | $46K | −0.1% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 81,822 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 47 @ $589.39 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | −5.8% | −46.9% | 81,775 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Sale | 723 @ $581.07 | $420K | −5.0% of holding | −8.5% | −36.3% | 13,772 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Sale | 477 @ $580.20 | $277K | −3.2% of holding | −8.5% | −36.3% | 14,495 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Sale | 1,044 @ $587.20 | $613K | −6.5% of holding | −9.2% | −37.6% | 14,972 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 1,751 @ $585.11 | $1.0M | −2.0% of holding | −9.6% | −36.6% | 84,074 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 1,521 @ $586.15 | $892K | −1.8% of holding | −9.6% | −36.6% | 82,553 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Sale | 1,140 @ $585.88 | $668K | −6.6% of holding | −9.6% | −36.6% | 16,076 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 688 @ $587.64 | $404K | −0.8% of holding | −9.6% | −36.6% | 81,865 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 500 @ $584.18 | $292K | −0.6% of holding | −9.6% | −36.6% | 85,825 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Sale | 500 @ $580.79 | $290K | −0.6% of holding | −9.6% | −36.6% | 86,525 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
201 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Option exercise | 9,250 | 109,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Option exercise | 9,250 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Option exercise | 8,500 | 16,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Option exercise | 8,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Award / grant | 15 | 7,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Gift | 90 | 25,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Hawkins Ronnie D. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 452 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Teed Andrew D. | director | Option exercise | 452 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Carter Glenn A | director | Option exercise | 452 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Pope Daniel M | director | Option exercise | 452 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Carter Margot Lebenberg | director | Option exercise | 452 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Cline Brenda A | director | Option exercise | 452 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Hawkins Ronnie D. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 452 | 2,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Hawkins Ronnie D. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 452 | 2,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Teed Andrew D. | director | Option exercise | 452 | 5,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Teed Andrew D. | director | Option exercise | 452 | 5,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Cline Brenda A | director | Option exercise | 452 | 2,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Pope Daniel M | director | Option exercise | 452 | 3,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Carter Margot Lebenberg | director | Option exercise | 452 | 970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Carter Glenn A | director | Option exercise | 452 | 5,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Carter Margot Lebenberg | director | Option exercise | 452 | 970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Cline Brenda A | director | Option exercise | 452 | 2,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Carter Glenn A | director | Option exercise | 452 | 5,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Pope Daniel M | director | Option exercise | 452 | 3,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Carter Margot Lebenberg | director | Award / grant | 762 | 762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Teed Andrew D. | director | Award / grant | 762 | 762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Pope Daniel M | director | Award / grant | 762 | 762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Cline Brenda A | director | Award / grant | 762 | 762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Carter Glenn A | director | Award / grant | 762 | 762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Hawkins Ronnie D. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 762 | 762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Award / grant | 57 | 25,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Puckett Jeffrey David | officer | Award / grant | 15 | 7,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Carter Glenn A | director | Option exercise | 2,126 | 6,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Carter Glenn A | director | Option exercise | 1,624 | 4,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Carter Glenn A | director | Option exercise | 1,624 | 2,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Carter Glenn A | director | Option exercise | 2,126 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Withheld for tax | 5,912 | 97,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MOORE H LYNN JR | director | Withheld for tax | 3,995 | 87,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,609 | 23,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MILLER BRIAN K | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,877 | 19,042 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-17 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-10-22 | 2025-09-11 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.