TXTTextron Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $80.71 · now $80.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TXT has typically landed between $72.49 and $88.73 — a range of −10.2% to +9.9% from the issuance price $80.71.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($80.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TXT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $80.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$72.49worst · -10.2%$88.73best · +9.9%
  • now $80.71 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $80.93 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $77.34–$84.52
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.49–$88.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-24−64.1%−64.1%+3.0%
2008-09-25−63.6%−65.1%+0.0%
2009-01-06−62.0%−62.0%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+184.3%+0.0%+184.3%
2009-03-12+142.6%−1.2%+168.0%
2009-03-13+128.2%+0.0%+171.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$16.6B
market cap
$5.23
EPS (TTM)
18.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$14.8B
'20'25
Net income$921M
'20'25
Free cash flow$884M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.54
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $80.71$74.34$166.68
  • DCF (intrinsic)$104.22
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$160.32
  • Analyst target · range $97.00–$110.00$104.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$80.71

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Mar
63%
−0.8%
n=19
Apr
47%
+5.0%
n=19
May
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Jun
37%
−1.5%
n=19
Jul
63%
+4.6%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.9%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Oct
44%
−1.8%
n=18
Nov
83%
+4.6%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$101$782026-05-06: 1 insider sale, $234K — CLARK R KERRY2026-05-01: 1 insider purchase, $989K — Kennedy Thomas A2026-02-17: 2 insider sales, $4.7M — Lupone E Robert, Bamford Mark S2026-02-13: 6 insider sales, $25.3M — DONNELLY SCOTT C, Duffy Julie G, Bamford Mark S, Atherton Lisa M …2026-02: 8 open-market sales, $30.0M2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $989K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $234K↑ buys↓ salesdirector CLARK R KERRY — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kennedy Thomas A — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed same dayofficer Lupone E Robert — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bamford Mark S — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DONNELLY SCOTT C — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector DONNELLY SCOTT C — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Duffy Julie G — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Bamford Mark S — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Atherton Lisa M — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradedirector DONNELLY SCOTT C — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-06CLARK R KERRYdirectorSale2,517 @ $93.09$234K−22.6% of holding−2.7%not yet — horizon still open8,611Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-01Kennedy Thomas AdirectorPurchase10,300 @ $95.98$989K+104.4% of holding−8.9%not yet — horizon still open20,162Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Lupone E RobertofficerSale28,056 @ $98.84$2.8M−21.2% of holding−7.5%−25.6%103,991Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Bamford Mark SofficerSale19,808 @ $97.96$1.9M−71.6% of holding−7.5%−25.6%7,872Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13DONNELLY SCOTT CdirectorSale130,168 @ $98.15$12.8M−13.5% of holding−5.1%−24.5%831,869Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13DONNELLY SCOTT CdirectorSale89,229 @ $98.79$8.8M−10.7% of holding−5.1%−24.5%742,640Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Duffy Julie GofficerSale19,857 @ $98.70$2.0M−34.9% of holding−5.1%−24.5%37,039Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Bamford Mark SofficerSale9,533 @ $98.68$941K−35.8% of holding−5.1%−24.5%17,072Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13Atherton Lisa MdirectorSale7,600 @ $98.68$750K−20.5% of holding−5.1%−24.5%29,473Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-13DONNELLY SCOTT CdirectorSale222 @ $99.66$22K−0.0% of holding−5.1%−24.5%742,418Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-25Duffy Julie GofficerSale22,283 @ $79.36$1.8M−37.2% of holding+0.7%+9.8%37,624Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-25Duffy Julie GofficerSale6,260 @ $79.40$497K−14.3% of holding+0.7%+9.8%37,624Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-25Bamford Mark SofficerSale2,000 @ $73.50$147K−9.9% of holding+6.7%+2.0%18,223Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Bamford Mark SofficerSale5,451 @ $72.68$396K−23.0% of holding+6.3%+3.2%18,223Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

103 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-29NOWELL LIONEL L IIIdirectorAward / grant2,06120,493Form 4
2026-04-29CLARK R KERRYdirectorAward / grant2,06111,128Form 4
2026-04-29Ambrose Richard FdirectorAward / grant2,06111,302Form 4
2026-04-29Garrett Michael XdirectorAward / grant2,0618,598Form 4
2026-04-29Mendez Echevarria Maria CristinadirectorAward / grant2,0612,439Form 4
2026-04-29James Deborah LdirectorAward / grant2,06120,505Form 4
2026-04-29Kennedy Thomas AdirectorAward / grant2,0619,862Form 4
2026-04-29Zuber Maria TdirectorAward / grant2,06120,558Form 4
2026-04-29MIONIS ROBERTdirectorAward / grant2,0615,176Form 4
2026-03-01DONNELLY SCOTT CdirectorWithheld for tax19,777735,658Form 4
2026-03-01Lupone E RobertofficerWithheld for tax2,423107,155Form 4
2026-03-01Atherton Lisa MdirectorWithheld for tax2,00852,051Form 4
2026-03-01Duffy Julie GofficerWithheld for tax1,86439,091Form 4
2026-03-01Bamford Mark SofficerWithheld for tax5648,604Form 4
2026-03-01Bamford Mark SofficerAward / grant4,4244,424Form 4
2026-03-01Duffy Julie GofficerAward / grant3,91640,955Form 4
2026-03-01Duffy Julie GofficerAward / grant13,36913,369Form 4
2026-03-01Atherton Lisa MdirectorAward / grant27,11854,059Form 4
2026-03-01Rosenberg David MathewofficerAward / grant6,10214,253Form 4
2026-03-01Rosenberg David MathewofficerAward / grant20,83420,834Form 4
2026-03-01Atherton Lisa MdirectorAward / grant92,59392,593Form 4
2026-03-01DONNELLY SCOTT CdirectorAward / grant13,017755,435Form 4
2026-03-01DONNELLY SCOTT CdirectorAward / grant44,44544,445Form 4
2026-03-01Lupone E RobertofficerAward / grant5,587109,578Form 4
2026-03-01Lupone E RobertofficerAward / grant19,07519,075Form 4
2026-03-01Bamford Mark SofficerAward / grant1,2969,168Form 4
2026-02-17Lupone E RobertofficerOption exercise28,056132,047Form 4
2026-02-17Bamford Mark SofficerOption exercise4,95027,680Form 4
2026-02-17Bamford Mark SofficerOption exercise5,65822,730Form 4
2026-02-17Lupone E RobertofficerOption exercise28,0560Form 4
2026-02-17Bamford Mark SofficerOption exercise4,9500Form 4
2026-02-17Lupone E RobertofficerOption exercise28,0560Form 4
2026-02-17Bamford Mark SofficerOption exercise5,6580Form 4
2026-02-17Bamford Mark SofficerOption exercise4,9500Form 4
2026-02-17Bamford Mark SofficerOption exercise5,6580Form 4
2026-02-15Mendez Echevarria Maria CristinadirectorAward / grant378378Form 4
2026-02-13DONNELLY SCOTT CdirectorOption exercise219,619962,037Form 4
2026-02-13Duffy Julie GofficerOption exercise19,85756,896Form 4
2026-02-13Atherton Lisa MdirectorOption exercise7,60037,073Form 4
2026-02-13Bamford Mark SofficerOption exercise4,59624,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2026-01-152025-12-11$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-04$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-03-272025-02-25$1–15K
Michael GarciaHousesale2022-08-232022-07-12$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-08-172020-07-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-06-172020-05-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-03-092020-02-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-02-102020-01-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-11-092018-10-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-06-082018-05-08$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.