TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $170.07 · now $170.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TXRH has typically landed between $153.22 and $193.54 — a range of −9.9% to +13.8% from the issuance price $170.07.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($170.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TXRH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $170.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$153.22worst · -9.9%$193.54best · +13.8%
  • now $170.07 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $171.84 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $163.35–$180.33
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $153.22–$193.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−52.4%−52.4%+11.0%
2020-02-19−46.2%−52.9%+10.0%
2020-02-20−45.6%−53.8%+7.8%
3 best
2008-11-19+65.0%−9.5%+65.0%
2008-11-21+58.7%+0.0%+82.4%
2008-11-20+57.4%−6.3%+70.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+2.1%
n=20
Feb
80%
+4.9%
n=20
Mar
55%
−0.0%
n=20
Apr
60%
+3.8%
n=20
May
60%
+2.4%
n=20
Jun
60%
−0.4%
n=20
Jul
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Aug
40%
−1.4%
n=20
Sep
55%
−1.0%
n=20
Oct
65%
+2.3%
n=20
Nov
75%
+3.2%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$214$1552026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $102K — Marshall Lloyd Paul2026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $133K — Carroll Hugh J2026-08-21: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Morgan Gerald L.2026-08-17: 2 insider sales, $337K — EPPS DONNA E, Humpich Keith2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $625K — MOORE GREGORY N2026-07-02: 1 insider sale, $82K — Renfroe Sean G2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $89K — Colson Christopher C.2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $60K — Abell Jane Grote2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $178K — Marshall Lloyd Paul2026-05-11: 2 insider sales, $706K — Warfield Curtis, MOORE GREGORY N2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $761K — Tobin Regina A.2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $169K — Carroll Hugh J2026-03-13: 1 insider sale, $850K — Mujica Hernan E.2026-03-06: 2 insider sales, $438K — MOORE GREGORY N, EPPS DONNA E2026-01-20: 1 insider sale, $980K — Morgan Gerald L.2026-01-12: 1 insider sale, $936K — Morgan Gerald L.2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $167K — Carroll Hugh J2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $238K — MOORE GREGORY N2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $377K — Mujica Hernan E.2025-08-18: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Tobin Regina A., MOORE GREGORY N2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.4M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $405K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $2.2M2026-05: 5 open-market sales, $1.0M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $82K2026-08: 6 open-market sales, $4.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Marshall Lloyd Paul — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carroll Hugh J — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Morgan Gerald L. — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed same daydirector EPPS DONNA E — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Humpich Keith — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MOORE GREGORY N — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Renfroe Sean G — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Colson Christopher C. — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Abell Jane Grote — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marshall Lloyd Paul — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Warfield Curtis — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MOORE GREGORY N — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Tobin Regina A. — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carroll Hugh J — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mujica Hernan E. — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed same daydirector MOORE GREGORY N — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed same daydirector EPPS DONNA E — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed same daydirector Morgan Gerald L. — Sale on 2026-01-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Morgan Gerald L. — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Carroll Hugh J — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MOORE GREGORY N — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mujica Hernan E. — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Tobin Regina A. — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MOORE GREGORY N — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26Marshall Lloyd PaulofficerSale500 @ $204.65$102K−4.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,826Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-25Carroll Hugh JdirectorSale650 @ $203.99$133K−18.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,883Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-21Morgan Gerald L.directorSale15,000 @ $202.17$3.0M−15.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open80,970Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17EPPS DONNA EdirectorSale820 @ $206.56$169K−16.9% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open4,042Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17Humpich KeithofficerSale819 @ $204.11$167K−3.9% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open20,318Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11MOORE GREGORY NdirectorSale3,000 @ $208.32$625K−10.0% of holding−12.1%not yet — horizon still open26,900Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-02Renfroe Sean GofficerSale426 @ $192.53$82K−33.1% of holding+6.7%not yet — horizon still open860Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-26Colson Christopher C.officerSale499 @ $179.22$89K−3.3% of holding+7.0%not yet — horizon still open14,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Abell Jane GrotedirectorSale339 @ $177.43$60K−13.6% of holding−1.9%not yet — horizon still open2,161Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Marshall Lloyd PaulofficerSale1,000 @ $178.34$178K−8.8% of holding−5.9%not yet — horizon still open10,326Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Warfield CurtisdirectorSale2,640 @ $183.05$483K−33.0% of holding−8.3%not yet — horizon still open5,361Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11MOORE GREGORY NdirectorSale1,250 @ $178.14$223K−3.9% of holding−8.3%not yet — horizon still open30,900Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-19Tobin Regina A.officerSale4,450 @ $171.00$761K−24.4% of holding−12.3%not yet — horizon still open13,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16Carroll Hugh JdirectorSale988 @ $170.96$169K−53.3% of holding−9.3%−13.8%866Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13Mujica Hernan E.officerSale5,000 @ $170.00$850K−24.3% of holding−8.2%−8.2%15,552Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06MOORE GREGORY NdirectorSale1,700 @ $171.59$292K−100.0% of holding−4.7%−3.7%0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06EPPS DONNA EdirectorSale850 @ $172.45$147K−14.8% of holding−4.7%−3.7%4,892Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-20Morgan Gerald L.directorSale5,000 @ $196.00$980K−5.2% of holding−7.3%−11.7%91,774Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-12Morgan Gerald L.directorSale5,000 @ $187.13$936K−4.9% of holding−2.0%−7.3%96,774Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-04Carroll Hugh JdirectorSale1,000 @ $167.27$167K−35.0% of holding+5.1%−7.4%1,854Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03MOORE GREGORY NdirectorSale1,400 @ $170.00$238K−4.2% of holding+2.3%−6.7%32,150Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21Mujica Hernan E.officerSale2,189 @ $172.40$377K−11.1% of holding−13.1%−4.9%17,553Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18Tobin Regina A.officerSale3,153 @ $173.53$547K−17.1% of holding−7.6%+1.0%15,261Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18MOORE GREGORY NdirectorSale3,000 @ $173.06$519K−8.0% of holding−7.6%+1.0%34,550Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23EPPS DONNA EdirectorSale800 @ $186.52$149K−14.7% of holding−8.0%−22.5%4,632Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-12MOORE GREGORY NdirectorSale1,000 @ $187.62$188K−2.6% of holding−3.9%−31.8%38,050Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05Tobin Regina A.officerSale3,154 @ $185.64$586K−14.6% of holding−2.1%−19.8%18,414Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Warfield CurtisdirectorSale3,281 @ $183.67$603K−32.5% of holding−4.7%−18.5%6,801Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Jones Wayne L.directorSale500 @ $185.00$93K−20.8% of holding−2.8%−14.7%1,900Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-28Colson Christopher C.officerSale580 @ $181.94$106K−4.6% of holding−3.6%−14.8%12,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-27Warfield CurtisdirectorSale4,190 @ $178.80$749K−29.4% of holding+1.3%−14.0%10,082Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24MOORE GREGORY NdirectorSale2,700 @ $168.26$454K−100.0% of holding+6.9%−4.7%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24Mujica Hernan E.officerSale2,050 @ $170.66$350K−10.7% of holding+6.9%−4.7%17,162Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-10Colson Christopher C.officerSale1,370 @ $179.46$246K−12.0% of holding−8.4%−3.4%10,000Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

159 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20EPPS DONNA EdirectorGift493,944Form 4
2026-08-17EPPS DONNA EdirectorGift493,993Form 4
2026-07-02Humpich KeithofficerWithheld for tax63621,137Form 4
2026-07-02Renfroe Sean GofficerWithheld for tax3671,286Form 4
2026-07-02Renfroe Sean GofficerOption exercise1,2180Form 4
2026-07-02Carroll Hugh JdirectorOption exercise2,6673,533Form 4
2026-07-02Carroll Hugh JdirectorOption exercise2,6670Form 4
2026-07-02Humpich KeithofficerOption exercise2,11421,773Form 4
2026-07-02Humpich KeithofficerOption exercise2,1140Form 4
2026-07-02Renfroe Sean GofficerOption exercise1,2181,653Form 4
2026-05-11MOORE GREGORY NdirectorGift1,00029,900Form 4
2026-03-18Humpich KeithofficerGift30019,659Form 4
2026-03-09EPPS DONNA EdirectorGift304,862Form 4
2026-03-09Humpich KeithofficerGift10019,959Form 4
2026-03-05Ingram Elizabeth KdirectorAward / grant1,0001,000Form 4
2026-02-27Morgan Gerald L.directorWithheld for tax3,33995,970Form 4
2026-02-27Tobin Regina A.officerWithheld for tax94618,228Form 4
2026-02-27Doster Travis C.officerWithheld for tax50836,632Form 4
2026-02-27Colson Christopher C.officerWithheld for tax50814,999Form 4
2026-02-27Mujica Hernan E.officerWithheld for tax50820,552Form 4
2026-02-27Marshall Lloyd PaulofficerWithheld for tax37311,326Form 4
2026-02-27Colson Christopher C.officerAward / grant1,68915,507Form 4
2026-02-27Marshall Lloyd PaulofficerAward / grant1,52911,699Form 4
2026-02-27Morgan Gerald L.directorAward / grant7,53599,309Form 4
2026-02-27Tobin Regina A.officerAward / grant2,59819,174Form 4
2026-02-27Doster Travis C.officerAward / grant1,68937,140Form 4
2026-02-27Mujica Hernan E.officerAward / grant1,68921,060Form 4
2026-01-08Morgan Gerald L.directorWithheld for tax5,139101,774Form 4
2026-01-08Tobin Regina A.officerWithheld for tax1,20216,576Form 4
2026-01-08Doster Travis C.officerWithheld for tax78235,451Form 4
2026-01-08Mujica Hernan E.officerWithheld for tax78219,371Form 4
2026-01-08Colson Christopher C.officerWithheld for tax78213,818Form 4
2026-01-08Marshall Lloyd PaulofficerWithheld for tax68210,170Form 4
2026-01-08Tobin Regina A.officerOption exercise4,00017,778Form 4
2026-01-08Colson Christopher C.officerOption exercise2,60014,600Form 4
2026-01-08Colson Christopher C.officerOption exercise2,6000Form 4
2026-01-08Colson Christopher C.officerAward / grant2,7002,700Form 4
2026-01-08Colson Christopher C.officerAward / grant9,4009,400Form 4
2026-01-08MOORE GREGORY NdirectorOption exercise1,7001,700Form 4
2026-01-08MOORE GREGORY NdirectorOption exercise1,7000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.