TXOTXO Partners, L.P.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.80 · now $14.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TXO has typically landed between $13.21 and $16.63 — a range of −10.7% to +12.4% from the issuance price $14.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

879 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-01-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TXO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$13.21worst · -10.7%$16.63best · +12.4%
  • now $14.8 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.72 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.08–$15.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.21–$16.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 879 windows spanning 2023-01-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-11-18−19.7%−19.7%+0.0%
2025-12-05−18.7%−18.7%+0.0%
2025-11-19−18.5%−18.5%+0.0%
3 best
2024-04-19+29.0%−2.3%+29.0%
2024-04-18+28.1%−2.0%+28.1%
2024-04-22+26.1%−2.6%+28.6%

879 overlapping windows · 2023-01-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
100%
+8.6%
n=3
Feb
75%
+2.9%
n=4
Mar
75%
+1.2%
n=4
Apr
25%
−3.9%
n=4
May
50%
+3.5%
n=4
Jun
50%
−1.6%
n=4
Jul
100%
+2.2%
n=4
Aug
50%
+1.4%
n=4
Sep
25%
−0.9%
n=4
Oct
0%
−5.5%
n=3
Nov
0%
−2.6%
n=3
Dec
0%
−6.7%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$15$102026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $1.8M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $361K — SIMPSON BOB R2026-08-11: 1 insider purchase, $1.4M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $708K — SIMPSON BOB R2026-08-07: 1 insider purchase, $1.4M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-06-23: 1 insider purchase, $800K — SIMPSON BOB R2026-06-22: 1 insider purchase, $461K — SIMPSON BOB R2026-06-03: 1 insider purchase, $5.1M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-06-02: 1 insider purchase, $3.1M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-27: 1 insider purchase, $866K — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-26: 1 insider purchase, $456K — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-22: 1 insider purchase, $1.4M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-21: 1 insider purchase, $3.4M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $1.2M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-18: 1 insider purchase, $767K — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-15: 1 insider purchase, $2.0M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $839K — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $6.3M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-05-08: 2 insider purchases, $2.2M — SIMPSON BOB R, ADAMS WILLIAM H III2026-05-07: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — SIMPSON BOB R2026-04-01: 2 insider sales, $674K — Simpson Gary D., Clum Brent W.2026-01-31: 3 insider sales, $463K — Clum Brent W., Agosta Scott T., Simpson Gary D.2025-12-11: 1 insider purchase, $24K — KEVIL PHILLIP R2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $24K2026-01: 3 open-market sales, $463K2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $674K2026-05: 13 open-market purchases, $21.6M2026-06: 4 open-market purchases, $9.5M2026-08: 5 open-market purchases, $5.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed same daydirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-08-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed same daydirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-06-03, filed same daydirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-27, filed same daydirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed same daydirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed 5 days after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed same daydirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed same daydirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed same daydirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ADAMS WILLIAM H III — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SIMPSON BOB R — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Simpson Gary D. — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed same daydirector Clum Brent W. — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed same daydirector Clum Brent W. — Sale on 2026-01-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Agosta Scott T. — Sale on 2026-01-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Simpson Gary D. — Sale on 2026-01-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector KEVIL PHILLIP R — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase125,000 @ $14.32$1.8M+1.3% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open9,500,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-12SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $14.43$361K+0.3% of holding+8.0%not yet — horizon still open9,375,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $14.27$1.4M+1.1% of holding+8.1%not yet — horizon still open9,350,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $14.17$708K+0.5% of holding+11.1%not yet — horizon still open9,250,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $13.52$1.4M+1.1% of holding+13.2%not yet — horizon still open9,200,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-23SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase63,282 @ $12.64$800K+0.7% of holding+4.9%not yet — horizon still open9,100,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase36,718 @ $12.55$461K+0.4% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open9,036,718Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-03SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase369,153 @ $13.91$5.1M+4.3% of holding−7.5%not yet — horizon still open9,000,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-02SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase230,847 @ $13.41$3.1M+2.7% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open8,630,847Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase65,592 @ $13.20$866K+0.8% of holding−0.4%not yet — horizon still open8,400,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-26SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase34,408 @ $13.27$456K+0.4% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open8,334,408Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-22SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase104,451 @ $13.77$1.4M+1.3% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open8,300,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-21SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase245,549 @ $13.70$3.4M+3.1% of holding−6.6%not yet — horizon still open8,195,549Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-20SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase90,152 @ $13.35$1.2M+1.1% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open7,950,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase58,251 @ $13.17$767K+0.7% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open7,859,848Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase151,597 @ $12.95$2.0M+2.0% of holding−5.2%not yet — horizon still open7,801,597Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-14SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase64,475 @ $13.02$839K+0.8% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open7,650,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase85,525 @ $12.98$1.1M+1.1% of holding+3.8%not yet — horizon still open7,585,525Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase500,000 @ $12.67$6.3M+7.1% of holding+13.2%not yet — horizon still open7,500,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase162,365 @ $12.50$2.0M+2.4% of holding+11.4%not yet — horizon still open7,000,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-08ADAMS WILLIAM H IIIdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $12.41$124K+8.4% of holding+11.4%not yet — horizon still open128,951Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-07SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase87,635 @ $12.43$1.1M+1.3% of holding+11.2%not yet — horizon still open6,837,635Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-01Simpson Gary D.directorSale27,234 @ $12.38$337K−4.5% of holding−10.5%not yet — horizon still open581,018Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01Clum Brent W.directorSale27,234 @ $12.38$337K−3.3% of holding−10.5%not yet — horizon still open800,340Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-31Clum Brent W.directorSale19,571 @ $12.07$236K−2.3% of holding+7.4%+9.6%827,574Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-31Agosta Scott T.officerSale10,689 @ $12.07$129K−4.9% of holding+7.4%+9.6%205,474Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-31Simpson Gary D.directorSale8,126 @ $12.07$98K−1.3% of holding+7.4%+9.6%608,252Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11KEVIL PHILLIP RdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $11.90$24K+7.3% of holding−9.8%+3.9%29,384Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-19ADAMS WILLIAM H IIIdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $15.26$153K+10.2% of holding+4.0%−19.4%108,284Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15SIMPSON BOB RdirectorPurchase2,250,000 @ $15.00$33.8M+50.0% of holding−1.8%−21.9%6,750,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15HUTTON KEITH AdirectorPurchase700,000 @ $15.00$10.5M+17.0% of holding−1.8%−21.9%4,820,215Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15King Luther JrdirectorPurchase500,000 @ $15.00$7.5M+19.5% of holding−1.8%−21.9%3,061,530Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15Massaro Lawrence SdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $15.00$300K+512.8% of holding−1.8%−21.9%23,900Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14KEVIL PHILLIP RdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $15.18$46K+12.3% of holding−1.6%−24.1%27,384Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01Clum Brent W.directorSale31,517 @ $19.08$601K−4.7% of holding−11.8%−43.7%638,820Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-01Simpson Gary D.directorSale31,517 @ $19.08$601K−7.2% of holding−11.8%−43.7%408,053Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-31Clum Brent W.directorSale7,702 @ $18.59$143K−1.6% of holding+4.4%−22.8%470,337Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31Agosta Scott T.officerSale5,775 @ $18.59$107K−3.5% of holding+4.4%−22.8%159,498Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-30ADAMS WILLIAM H IIIdirectorPurchase14,000 @ $16.93$237K+17.8% of holding+7.5%−13.8%92,784Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-19HUTTON KEITH AdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $15.85$317K+0.5% of holding+17.4%−6.1%4,120,215Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-18HUTTON KEITH AdirectorPurchase60,000 @ $16.04$963K+1.5% of holding+15.6%−5.7%4,100,215Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17HUTTON KEITH AdirectorPurchase40,000 @ $15.64$625K+1.0% of holding+22.6%+3.3%4,040,215Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-17KEVIL PHILLIP RdirectorPurchase500 @ $15.75$8K+2.5% of holding+22.6%+3.3%20,484Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16KEVIL PHILLIP RdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $16.25$16K+5.4% of holding+21.9%+3.4%19,484Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16KEVIL PHILLIP RdirectorPurchase500 @ $16.05$8K+2.6% of holding+21.9%+3.4%19,984Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

27 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-03-27HUTTON KEITH AdirectorGift720,0004,100,215Form 4
2026-01-31Agosta Scott T.officerAward / grant35,556195,054Form 4
2026-01-31King Luther JrdirectorAward / grant10,667751,111Form 4
2026-01-31Agosta Scott T.officerAward / grant21,109216,163Form 4
2026-01-31Clum Brent W.directorAward / grant155,556794,376Form 4
2026-01-31Clum Brent W.directorAward / grant52,769847,145Form 4
2026-01-31Massaro Lawrence SdirectorAward / grant10,66734,567Form 4
2026-01-31Simpson Gary D.directorAward / grant155,556563,609Form 4
2026-01-31Simpson Gary D.directorAward / grant52,769616,378Form 4
2026-01-31ADAMS WILLIAM H IIIdirectorAward / grant10,667118,951Form 4
2026-01-31KEVIL PHILLIP RdirectorAward / grant10,66740,051Form 4
2026-01-31Settle Rick JacobdirectorAward / grant10,66737,383Form 4
2025-04-01Simpson Gary D.directorAward / grant100,000439,570Form 4
2025-04-01Massaro Lawrence SdirectorAward / grant3,9003,900Form 4
2025-04-01Simpson Gary D.directorAward / grant100,000339,570Form 4
2025-04-01Clum Brent W.directorAward / grant100,000570,337Form 4
2025-04-01Clum Brent W.directorAward / grant100,000670,337Form 4
2025-01-31Agosta Scott T.officerAward / grant21,110141,193Form 4
2025-01-31ADAMS WILLIAM H IIIdirectorAward / grant5,50098,284Form 4
2025-01-31Settle Rick JacobdirectorAward / grant5,50026,716Form 4
2025-01-31Agosta Scott T.officerAward / grant24,080165,273Form 4
2025-01-31KEVIL PHILLIP RdirectorAward / grant3,90024,384Form 4
2025-01-31Clum Brent W.directorAward / grant52,770417,839Form 4
2025-01-31Clum Brent W.directorAward / grant60,200478,039Form 4
2025-01-31King Luther JrdirectorAward / grant3,900747,344Form 4
2025-01-31Simpson Gary D.directorAward / grant52,770231,480Form 4
2025-01-31Simpson Gary D.directorAward / grant8,090239,570Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.