TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc.Utilities · Regulated Electricas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $58.54 · now $58.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TXNM has typically landed between $55.40 and $62.44 — a range of −5.4% to +6.7% from the issuance price $58.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($58.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TXNM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $58.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$55.4worst · -5.4%$62.44best · +6.7%
  • now $58.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.79 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $57.83–$59.74
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.4–$62.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-02-06−52.9%−52.9%+0.0%
2008-02-07−48.9%−52.2%+0.0%
2008-02-08−46.6%−51.0%+0.0%
3 best
2008-03-17+43.8%+0.0%+43.8%
2008-03-07+41.9%+0.0%+48.8%
2008-03-19+39.0%+0.0%+43.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.4%
n=20
Feb
65%
−2.4%
n=20
Mar
85%
+3.1%
n=20
Apr
70%
+2.4%
n=20
May
65%
+0.5%
n=20
Jun
35%
−1.1%
n=20
Jul
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.8%
n=20
Sep
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Oct
80%
+3.7%
n=20
Nov
60%
+1.9%
n=20
Dec
55%
+0.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$59$552025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $104K — BAILEY VICKY A2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $104K↑ buys↓ salesdirector BAILEY VICKY A — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-14BAILEY VICKY AdirectorSale1,800 @ $57.74$104K−17.1% of holding+0.5%−5.5%8,725Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

137 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14COLLAWN PATRICIA KdirectorAward / grant73998,591Form 4
2026-06-10MULLARKEY MAUREEN TdirectorAward / grant2,69834,487Form 4
2026-06-10HUGHES JAMES ALTONdirectorAward / grant2,69822,217Form 4
2026-06-10Maestas StevendirectorAward / grant2,6988,992Form 4
2026-06-10Gutierrez Sidney M.directorAward / grant2,69832,135Form 4
2026-06-10CONLEY E RENAEdirectorAward / grant2,69839,971Form 4
2026-06-10BAILEY VICKY AdirectorAward / grant2,69811,692Form 4
2026-06-10BECKER NORMAN P.directorAward / grant2,69830,802Form 4
2026-06-10Montoya Lillian JdirectorAward / grant2,6988,992Form 4
2026-05-15COLLAWN PATRICIA KdirectorAward / grant69197,852Form 4
2026-03-07COLLAWN PATRICIA KdirectorWithheld for tax3,882772,504Form 4
2026-03-07COLLAWN PATRICIA KdirectorWithheld for tax3,280776,472Form 4
2026-03-07COLLAWN PATRICIA KdirectorWithheld for tax2,724767,809Form 4
2026-03-07TARRY JOSEPH DONdirectorWithheld for tax1,41458,223Form 4
2026-03-07TARRY JOSEPH DONdirectorWithheld for tax1,09756,513Form 4
2026-03-07TARRY JOSEPH DONdirectorWithheld for tax77055,186Form 4
2026-03-07Iverson BriandirectorWithheld for tax4149,119Form 4
2026-03-07Monroy Henry EofficerWithheld for tax2539,382Form 4
2026-03-07Bischoff Gerald RofficerWithheld for tax1641,633Form 4
2026-03-07Monroy Henry EofficerWithheld for tax1589,046Form 4
2026-03-07Bischoff Gerald RofficerWithheld for tax1501,779Form 4
2026-03-07Monroy Henry EofficerWithheld for tax929,135Form 4
2026-03-07Bischoff Gerald RofficerWithheld for tax861,474Form 4
2026-03-07COLLAWN PATRICIA KdirectorOption exercise8,57743,665Form 4
2026-03-07Monroy Henry EofficerOption exercise3119,204Form 4
2026-03-07Monroy Henry EofficerOption exercise3114,248Form 4
2026-03-07Monroy Henry EofficerOption exercise5003,567Form 4
2026-03-07Monroy Henry EofficerOption exercise1819,227Form 4
2026-03-07Monroy Henry EofficerOption exercise5009,635Form 4
2026-03-07Monroy Henry EofficerOption exercise1814,067Form 4
2026-03-07Bischoff Gerald RofficerOption exercise1691,560Form 4
2026-03-07Bischoff Gerald RofficerOption exercise3231,797Form 4
2026-03-07Bischoff Gerald RofficerOption exercise1692,384Form 4
2026-03-07Bischoff Gerald RofficerOption exercise2961,765Form 4
2026-03-07Bischoff Gerald RofficerOption exercise2961,929Form 4
2026-03-07Bischoff Gerald RofficerOption exercise3232,061Form 4
2026-03-07Iverson BriandirectorOption exercise1,1639,533Form 4
2026-03-07Iverson BriandirectorOption exercise1,1635,578Form 4
2026-03-07TARRY JOSEPH DONdirectorOption exercise1,70055,956Form 4
2026-03-07TARRY JOSEPH DONdirectorOption exercise2,42457,610Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.