Issued 2026-08-13 at $273.43 · now $273.43 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, TXN has typically landed between $243.30 and $314.19 — a range of −11.0% to +14.9% from the issuance price $273.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($273.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TXN has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $273.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $273.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $273.19 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $257.17–$289.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $243.3–$314.19
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −29.6% | −29.6% | +0.2% |
| 2008-10-30 | −26.8% | −26.8% | +2.2% |
| 2008-09-23 | −26.1% | −26.1% | +5.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-07 | +45.6% | +0.0% | +45.6% |
| 2026-03-24 | +45.0% | −4.2% | +45.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | +44.8% | +0.0% | +45.4% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$51.04
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$225.07
- Analyst target · range $225.00–$400.00$312.50
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$273.43
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
No Form 4 filings for this company are in our record yet.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | purchase | 2026-05-22 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Kevin Hern | House | sale | 2026-04-03 | 2026-03-18 | $500K–1M |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-22 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | purchase | 2025-12-19 | 2025-11-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.