Issued 2026-09-25 at $85.71 · now $85.71 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, TXG has typically landed between $62.18 and $117.30 — a range of −27.5% to +36.9% from the issuance price $85.71.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,736 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-09-12 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($85.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TXG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $85.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $85.71 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $85.15 (-0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $74.03–$96.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $62.18–$117.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,736 windows spanning 2019-09-12 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-12 | −42.8% | −44.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-10 | −40.6% | −40.6% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-23 | +83.8% | +0.0% | +83.8% |
| 2026-07-07 | +72.1% | −1.0% | +72.1% |
| 2026-07-08 | +70.3% | +0.0% | +73.8% |
1,736 overlapping windows · 2019-09-12 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
71%
+5.2%
n=7
Feb
57%
−3.6%
n=7
Mar
29%
−7.9%
n=7
Apr
43%
−4.2%
n=7
May
57%
+2.3%
n=7
Jun
71%
+8.8%
n=7
Jul
71%
+7.2%
n=7
Aug
57%
+3.8%
n=7
Sep
29%
−3.6%
n=7
Oct
57%
+0.6%
n=7
Nov
71%
+17.3%
n=7
Dec
29%
+1.0%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 9,900 @ $81.83 | $810K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,053,049 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 9,300 @ $80.90 | $752K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,062,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $82.36 | $231K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,050,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 2,270 @ $81.67 | $185K | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $79.62 | $159K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,072,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 1,325 @ $80.82 | $107K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,284 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 1,222 @ $82.28 | $101K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $78.23 | $78K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,074,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 614 @ $79.51 | $49K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 292 @ $78.20 | $23K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Taich Adam | officer | Sale | 31,428 @ $64.31 | $2.0M | −8.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 330,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Taich Adam | officer | Sale | 13,754 @ $65.26 | $898K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 316,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Taich Adam | officer | Sale | 1,206 @ $63.68 | $77K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | STUELPNAGEL JOHN R | director | Sale | 7,012 @ $60.66 | $425K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 341,424 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | STUELPNAGEL JOHN R | director | Sale | 6,814 @ $62.11 | $423K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 334,610 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | STUELPNAGEL JOHN R | director | Sale | 6,174 @ $62.61 | $387K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 328,436 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 6,494 @ $63.98 | $415K | −0.6% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,075,841 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $63.02 | $221K | −0.3% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,082,335 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 492 @ $64.75 | $32K | −0.0% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,075,349 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 18,545 @ $63.02 | $1.2M | −1.7% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,085,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Taich Adam | officer | Sale | 17,166 @ $63.02 | $1.1M | −4.5% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 362,732 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Hindson Benjamin J. | director | Sale | 13,818 @ $63.02 | $871K | −2.8% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 488,182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 1,646 @ $63.97 | $105K | −5.3% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,515 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 561 @ $62.73 | $35K | −1.8% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Teichmann Sarah A. | director | Sale | 2,273 @ $57.15 | $130K | −7.5% of holding | +35.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,058 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Teichmann Sarah A. | director | Sale | 5,278 @ $57.29 | $302K | −14.8% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,331 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | STUELPNAGEL JOHN R | director | Sale | 17,000 @ $57.58 | $979K | −4.6% of holding | +15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 351,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | STUELPNAGEL JOHN R | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $58.73 | $176K | −0.9% of holding | +15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 348,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 9,821 @ $35.32 | $347K | −0.9% of holding | +42.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,110,041 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 9,991 @ $34.28 | $343K | −0.9% of holding | +42.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,119,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 8,527 @ $33.29 | $284K | −0.7% of holding | +42.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,129,853 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 1,661 @ $36.16 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | +42.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,108,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 5,359 @ $32.59 | $175K | −14.3% of holding | +38.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,086 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 364 @ $33.27 | $12K | −1.1% of holding | +38.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 10,718 @ $24.71 | $265K | −0.9% of holding | +47.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,138,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 18,175 @ $24.44 | $444K | −1.6% of holding | +47.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,149,098 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Taich Adam | officer | Sale | 15,098 @ $24.44 | $369K | −3.8% of holding | +47.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 379,898 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Hindson Benjamin J. | director | Sale | 11,595 @ $24.44 | $283K | −2.3% of holding | +47.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 502,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $24.56 | $123K | −0.4% of holding | −21.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,167,273 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.52 | $98K | −0.4% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,172,273 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $19.13 | $191K | −0.8% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,177,273 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 14,292 @ $22.67 | $324K | −1.2% of holding | −3.3% | +221.2% | 1,205,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 1,860 @ $23.18 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | −3.3% | +221.2% | 1,203,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Teichmann Sarah A. | director | Sale | 7,579 @ $19.41 | $147K | −22.1% of holding | +10.6% | +246.5% | 26,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 9,632 @ $18.58 | $179K | −0.9% of holding | +8.9% | +239.8% | 1,061,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Taich Adam | officer | Sale | 8,968 @ $18.58 | $167K | −3.0% of holding | +8.9% | +239.8% | 288,417 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Hindson Benjamin J. | director | Sale | 7,826 @ $18.58 | $145K | −1.8% of holding | +8.9% | +239.8% | 424,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 13,261 @ $19.00 | $252K | −1.3% of holding | −20.6% | +25.6% | 1,021,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Taich Adam | officer | Sale | 11,888 @ $19.00 | $226K | −3.8% of holding | −20.6% | +25.6% | 297,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Hindson Benjamin J. | director | Sale | 8,283 @ $19.00 | $157K | −1.9% of holding | −20.6% | +25.6% | 432,605 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Taich Adam | officer | Sale | 22,315 @ $13.79 | $308K | −6.7% of holding | −15.7% | +26.4% | 309,273 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 9,348 @ $13.79 | $129K | −1.0% of holding | −15.7% | +26.4% | 945,892 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Hindson Benjamin J. | director | Sale | 7,486 @ $13.79 | $103K | −1.7% of holding | −15.7% | +26.4% | 440,888 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 9,343 @ $8.30 | $78K | −0.9% of holding | +23.1% | +80.2% | 1,083,625 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Hindson Benjamin J. | director | Sale | 7,485 @ $8.30 | $62K | −1.6% of holding | +23.1% | +80.2% | 448,374 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Taich Adam | officer | Sale | 4,044 @ $8.30 | $34K | −1.2% of holding | +23.1% | +80.2% | 331,588 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 7,942 @ $10.63 | $84K | −0.9% of holding | −12.8% | +21.8% | 871,540 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Saxonov Serge | director | Sale | 5,092 @ $11.07 | $56K | −0.6% of holding | −10.3% | +16.4% | 879,482 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Hindson Benjamin J. | director | Sale | 4,573 @ $11.07 | $51K | −1.3% of holding | −10.3% | +16.4% | 335,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | MATEO ALAN | director | Purchase | 40,000 @ $11.14 | $446K | +184.4% of holding | −0.7% | +23.0% | 61,691 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
45 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Saxonov Serge | director | Gift | 100 | 1,075,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Saxonov Serge | director | Gift | 4,000 | 1,104,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Kosaraju Sridhar | director | Award / grant | 8,829 | 65,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Teichmann Sarah A. | director | Award / grant | 8,829 | 35,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Popovits Kimberly J | director | Award / grant | 8,829 | 37,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | STUELPNAGEL JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 8,829 | 368,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Award / grant | 8,829 | 37,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | MATEO ALAN | director | Award / grant | 8,829 | 85,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Saxonov Serge | director | Gift | 2,750 | 1,200,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Hindson Benjamin J. | director | Award / grant | 88,816 | 513,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Taich Adam | officer | Award / grant | 106,579 | 394,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Saxonov Serge | director | Award / grant | 157,895 | 1,219,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Saxonov Serge | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,071,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Saxonov Serge | director | Option exercise | 32,537 | 173,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Saxonov Serge | director | Option exercise | 17,463 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Saxonov Serge | director | Gift | 900 | 1,034,817 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Saxonov Serge | director | Gift | 1,000 | 955,240 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Award / grant | 15,357 | 28,616 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | STUELPNAGEL JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 15,357 | 359,607 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Kosaraju Sridhar | director | Award / grant | 15,357 | 56,449 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | MATEO ALAN | director | Award / grant | 15,357 | 77,048 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Teichmann Sarah A. | director | Award / grant | 15,357 | 34,359 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Popovits Kimberly J | director | Award / grant | 15,357 | 28,616 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Saxonov Serge | director | Gift | 3,000 | 1,080,625 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Hindson Benjamin J. | director | Award / grant | 120,535 | 455,859 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Saxonov Serge | director | Award / grant | 171,428 | 1,092,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Taich Adam | officer | Award / grant | 133,928 | 335,632 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Saxonov Serge | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 921,540 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Saxonov Serge | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 17,463 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Saxonov Serge | director | Option exercise | 12,000 | 884,574 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Saxonov Serge | director | Option exercise | 12,000 | 67,463 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-21 | Saxonov Serge | director | Gift | 1,850 | 879,267 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-14 | Saxonov Serge | director | Gift | 1,350 | 881,117 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-23 | Taich Adam | officer | Award / grant | 201,704 | 201,704 | Form 4 |
| 2024-08-30 | Teichmann Sarah A. | director | Award / grant | 19,002 | 19,002 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-31 | MATEO ALAN | director | Award / grant | 21,691 | 21,691 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-11 | Popovits Kimberly J | director | Award / grant | 8,649 | 13,259 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-11 | Mammen Mathai | director | Award / grant | 8,649 | 180,259 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-11 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Award / grant | 8,649 | 13,259 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-11 | STUELPNAGEL JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 8,649 | 344,250 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.