Issued 2026-09-16 at $143.07 · now $143.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TWST has typically landed between $103.28 and $199.30 — a range of −27.8% to +39.3% from the issuance price $143.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,957 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($143.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TWST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $143.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $143.07 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $142.75 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $121.07–$164.43
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $103.28–$199.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,957 windows spanning 2018-10-31 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-02-04 | −46.6% | −46.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-03-30 | −42.6% | −42.6% | +7.5% |
| 2022-04-07 | −41.3% | −41.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2018-11-05 | +117.3% | +0.0% | +117.3% |
| 2018-11-02 | +113.2% | +0.0% | +113.2% |
| 2018-11-01 | +95.2% | −0.7% | +99.3% |
1,957 overlapping windows · 2018-10-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+7.8%
n=8
Feb
38%
−3.4%
n=8
Mar
38%
−6.0%
n=8
Apr
50%
−3.7%
n=8
May
75%
+8.7%
n=8
Jun
100%
+23.8%
n=8
Jul
63%
+8.7%
n=8
Aug
25%
−0.7%
n=8
Sep
50%
−2.9%
n=8
Oct
43%
−1.6%
n=7
Nov
63%
+21.3%
n=8
Dec
25%
+2.1%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 2,302 @ $122.62 | $282K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 768,427 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Green Paula | officer | Sale | 907 @ $122.62 | $111K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Cho Dennis | officer | Sale | 412 @ $122.62 | $51K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 73,651 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | WERNER ROBERT F. | officer | Sale | 238 @ $122.62 | $29K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 12,648 @ $150.56 | $1.9M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 799,651 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 12,236 @ $151.35 | $1.9M | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 787,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 9,181 @ $153.93 | $1.4M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 771,822 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 6,412 @ $152.75 | $979K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 781,003 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 1,093 @ $154.45 | $169K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 770,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | WERNER ROBERT F. | officer | Sale | 854 @ $140.77 | $120K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 6,639 @ $139.07 | $923K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 812,299 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 4,046 @ $139.07 | $563K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 210,802 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Laponis Adam | officer | Sale | 1,965 @ $139.07 | $273K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 108,633 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Cho Dennis | officer | Sale | 1,598 @ $139.07 | $222K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Green Paula | officer | Sale | 1,360 @ $139.07 | $189K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,921 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | WERNER ROBERT F. | officer | Sale | 669 @ $139.07 | $93K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,491 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Cho Dennis | officer | Sale | 14,205 @ $129.75 | $1.8M | −15.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 75,661 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 33,354 @ $115.90 | $3.9M | −11.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 259,679 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 12,917 @ $119.86 | $1.5M | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 222,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 10,420 @ $116.82 | $1.2M | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 249,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 8,868 @ $117.70 | $1.0M | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 240,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 6,296 @ $121.01 | $762K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 216,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $119.04 | $536K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 235,891 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $122.58 | $245K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 214,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 19,952 @ $125.08 | $2.5M | −2.4% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 818,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | BLAKE KATRYN | director | Sale | 2,240 @ $122.88 | $275K | −11.5% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,208 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 113,318 @ $125.16 | $14.2M | −12.2% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 818,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | CHESS ROBERT | director | Sale | 18,417 @ $110.89 | $2.0M | −46.6% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,084 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Cho Dennis | officer | Sale | 14,205 @ $109.75 | $1.6M | −13.6% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 5,101 @ $85.32 | $435K | −0.6% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 818,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 2,888 @ $85.32 | $246K | −1.1% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Green Paula | officer | Sale | 1,133 @ $85.32 | $97K | −0.9% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Cho Dennis | officer | Sale | 1,070 @ $85.32 | $91K | −1.0% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WERNER ROBERT F. | officer | Sale | 167 @ $85.32 | $14K | −0.4% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,160 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Sale | 2,238 @ $93.89 | $210K | −0.8% of holding | +53.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 272,566 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Laponis Adam | officer | Sale | 2,399 @ $94.33 | $226K | −2.1% of holding | +20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,276 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 18,880 @ $95.00 | $1.8M | −2.2% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 824,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Cho Dennis | officer | Sale | 14,205 @ $89.75 | $1.3M | −11.9% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 1,688 @ $87.32 | $147K | −0.2% of holding | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 842,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Cho Dennis | officer | Sale | 346 @ $87.32 | $30K | −0.3% of holding | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Green Paula | officer | Sale | 291 @ $87.32 | $25K | −0.2% of holding | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Green Paula | officer | Sale | 24,109 @ $81.62 | $2.0M | −16.4% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Green Paula | officer | Sale | 2,028 @ $82.17 | $167K | −1.7% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,705 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 2,265 @ $69.84 | $158K | −0.3% of holding | +31.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 844,607 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | WERNER ROBERT F. | officer | Sale | 1,127 @ $69.07 | $78K | −2.4% of holding | +31.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,827 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Green Paula | officer | Sale | 884 @ $69.84 | $62K | −0.7% of holding | +31.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,705 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Cho Dennis | officer | Sale | 402 @ $69.84 | $28K | −0.3% of holding | +31.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,692 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | WERNER ROBERT F. | officer | Sale | 232 @ $69.84 | $16K | −0.5% of holding | +31.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,954 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Cho Dennis | officer | Sale | 14,205 @ $69.75 | $991K | −10.6% of holding | +54.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,094 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Laponis Adam | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $70.00 | $280K | −3.4% of holding | +54.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,675 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 7,623 @ $67.95 | $518K | −0.9% of holding | +44.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 853,337 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 6,465 @ $68.61 | $444K | −0.8% of holding | +44.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 846,872 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Starovasnik Melissa A. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $68.00 | $170K | −10.1% of holding | +44.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,222 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 1,482 @ $65.33 | $97K | −0.2% of holding | +44.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 861,860 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 900 @ $66.85 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | +44.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 860,960 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 23,752 @ $65.24 | $1.5M | −2.7% of holding | +58.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 848,137 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 1,265 @ $66.28 | $84K | −0.1% of holding | +58.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 846,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Sale | 24,282 @ $65.08 | $1.6M | −2.8% of holding | +50.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 846,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | WERNER ROBERT F. | officer | Sale | 800 @ $62.48 | $50K | −1.6% of holding | +50.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,186 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Starovasnik Melissa A. | director | Sale | 500 @ $61.04 | $31K | −2.0% of holding | +50.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
67 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 23,355 | 293,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 23,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 19,952 | 838,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 19,952 | 133,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 113,318 | 932,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 113,318 | 153,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | CHESS ROBERT | director | Option exercise | 18,417 | 39,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | CHESS ROBERT | director | Option exercise | 18,417 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Green Paula | officer | Option exercise | 26,137 | 146,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Green Paula | officer | Option exercise | 26,137 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | WERNER ROBERT F. | officer | Gift | 500 | 46,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 16,470 | 863,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 16,470 | 75,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 25,017 | 871,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 25,017 | 91,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 24,282 | 871,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 24,282 | 116,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | JOHANNESSEN JAN | director | Option exercise | 12,000 | 29,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | JOHANNESSEN JAN | director | Option exercise | 12,000 | 10,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 8,061 | 866,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 8,061 | 141,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 1,610 | 860,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Leproust Emily M. | director | Option exercise | 1,610 | 149,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | CHESS ROBERT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 31,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | CHESS ROBERT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 18,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 32,300 | 356,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 18,205 | 324,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 18,205 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 32,300 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 712 | 308,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 307,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 712 | 32,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 18,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 310,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 308,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 18,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Finn Patrick John | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 33,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | WERNER ROBERT F. | officer | Gift | 2,000 | 56,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | JOHANNESSEN JAN | director | Award / grant | 5,095 | 19,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | BLAKE KATRYN | director | Award / grant | 5,095 | 19,448 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.