TWOTwo Harbors Investment Corp.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-03
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-03 at $12.18 · now $12.18 (2026-08-24, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-03 close, TWO has typically landed between $10.27 and $13.93 — a range of −15.7% to +14.4% from the issuance price $12.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,207 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-10-29 – 2026-07-24 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 54.0% (90% CI 51.8–56.2%, ≈1,380 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-03 issuance close ($12.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-02, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TWO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-03 close of $12.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.27worst · -15.7%$13.93best · +14.4%
  • now $12.18 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.19 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.57–$12.81
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.27–$13.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,207 windows spanning 2009-10-29 to 2026-08-24. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-04−83.0%−83.0%+0.0%
2020-02-24−82.8%−82.8%+0.0%
2020-03-05−77.5%−82.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03+89.6%+0.0%+104.0%
2020-03-24+57.8%−7.2%+88.2%
2025-12-16+47.0%+0.0%+47.0%

4,207 overlapping windows · 2009-10-29 – 2026-08-24 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+3.6%
n=17
Feb
59%
+0.8%
n=17
Mar
76%
−1.8%
n=17
Apr
41%
+0.7%
n=17
May
47%
−1.1%
n=17
Jun
76%
+2.8%
n=17
Jul
53%
+0.9%
n=17
Aug
71%
−0.2%
n=17
Sep
31%
−2.1%
n=16
Oct
50%
−0.5%
n=16
Nov
65%
+3.6%
n=17
Dec
76%
+1.7%
n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-082025-07$13$82026-05-15: 2 insider sales, $145K — KASNET STEPHEN G, Abraham Spencer2026-01-15: 1 insider sale, $5K — Halm Jillian2026-01-12: 3 insider sales, $50K — Halm Jillian, Campbell James D, BOUCHER NATHAN2026-01-09: 1 insider sale, $7K — BOUCHER NATHAN2025-12-22: 1 insider sale, $81K — Dellal William2025-12-19: 5 insider sales, $2.5M — GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSS, LETICA NICHOLAS, Sandberg Rebecca B, RUSH ROBERT …2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $87K — LETICA NICHOLAS2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $87K2025-12: 6 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-01: 5 open-market sales, $63K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $145K↑ buys↓ salesdirector KASNET STEPHEN G — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed same daydirector Abraham Spencer — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed same dayofficer Halm Jillian — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed same dayofficer Halm Jillian — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed same dayofficer Campbell James D — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed same dayofficer BOUCHER NATHAN — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed same dayofficer BOUCHER NATHAN — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Dellal William — Sale on 2025-12-22, filed same daydirector GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSS — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed same dayofficer LETICA NICHOLAS — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed same dayofficer Sandberg Rebecca B — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed same dayofficer RUSH ROBERT — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed same dayofficer HANSON ALECIA — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed same dayofficer LETICA NICHOLAS — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-15KASNET STEPHEN GdirectorSale7,034 @ $12.57$88K−6.8% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open95,993Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-15Abraham SpencerdirectorSale4,522 @ $12.57$57K−11.4% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open35,039Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-15Halm JillianofficerSale379 @ $13.18$5K−2.0% of holding−14.4%−11.7%18,833Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-12Halm JillianofficerSale1,744 @ $12.25$21K−8.3% of holding−11.3%−4.8%19,212Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-12Campbell James DofficerSale1,692 @ $12.39$21K−4.4% of holding−11.3%−4.8%37,056Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-12BOUCHER NATHANofficerSale666 @ $12.25$8K−2.4% of holding−11.3%−4.8%27,249Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-09BOUCHER NATHANofficerSale601 @ $12.37$7K−2.1% of holding−7.6%−4.0%27,915Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-22Dellal WilliamofficerSale7,087 @ $11.44$81K−16.2% of holding+20.0%+7.5%36,703Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorSale103,893 @ $11.42$1.2M−12.9% of holding+20.2%+7.1%700,699Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19LETICA NICHOLASofficerSale55,488 @ $11.42$634K−25.0% of holding+20.2%+7.1%166,507Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19Sandberg Rebecca BofficerSale27,370 @ $11.43$313K−14.9% of holding+20.2%+7.1%156,718Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19RUSH ROBERTofficerSale23,594 @ $11.43$270K−19.4% of holding+20.2%+7.1%98,207Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19HANSON ALECIAofficerSale10,768 @ $11.41$123K−19.2% of holding+20.2%+7.1%45,288Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-18LETICA NICHOLASofficerSale8,654 @ $10.02$87K−5.1% of holding−2.4%+12.2%160,281Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16KASNET STEPHEN GdirectorSale12,129 @ $11.97$145K−10.5% of holding−11.6%−27.1%103,027Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Abraham SpencerdirectorSale3,641 @ $11.98$44K−8.4% of holding−11.6%−27.1%39,561Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-10GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorSale7,945 @ $12.95$103K−2.0% of holding+10.6%−24.5%391,457Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10Sandberg Rebecca BofficerSale2,561 @ $12.96$33K−1.7% of holding+10.6%−24.5%146,803Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10RUSH ROBERTofficerSale2,392 @ $12.96$31K−2.7% of holding+10.6%−24.5%87,087Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10HANSON ALECIAofficerSale910 @ $12.95$12K−2.0% of holding+10.6%−24.5%43,714Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10Halm JillianofficerSale821 @ $12.98$11K−7.8% of holding+10.6%−24.5%9,772Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorSale9,663 @ $11.27$109K−2.4% of holding+13.4%−13.8%399,402Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14LETICA NICHOLASofficerSale5,737 @ $11.28$65K−3.3% of holding+13.4%−13.8%168,935Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14Sandberg Rebecca BofficerSale3,014 @ $11.24$34K−2.0% of holding+13.4%−13.8%149,364Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14RUSH ROBERTofficerSale2,868 @ $11.25$32K−3.1% of holding+13.4%−13.8%89,479Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14HANSON ALECIAofficerSale1,095 @ $11.28$12K−2.4% of holding+13.4%−13.8%44,624Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14Halm JillianofficerSale1,030 @ $11.23$12K−8.9% of holding+13.4%−13.8%10,593Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-10GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorSale13,855 @ $11.13$154K−3.3% of holding+15.4%−10.8%409,065Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10LETICA NICHOLASofficerSale6,040 @ $11.13$67K−3.3% of holding+15.4%−10.8%174,672Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10Sandberg Rebecca BofficerSale3,785 @ $11.14$42K−2.4% of holding+15.4%−10.8%152,378Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10RUSH ROBERTofficerSale2,268 @ $11.13$25K−2.4% of holding+15.4%−10.8%92,347Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10HANSON ALECIAofficerSale1,520 @ $11.14$17K−3.2% of holding+15.4%−10.8%45,719Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10BOUCHER NATHANofficerSale686 @ $11.14$8K−4.7% of holding+15.4%−10.8%13,811Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-08GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorSale14,039 @ $11.21$157K−3.2% of holding+12.8%−10.2%422,920Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08Sandberg Rebecca BofficerSale5,025 @ $11.21$56K−3.1% of holding+12.8%−10.2%156,163Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08RUSH ROBERTofficerSale4,679 @ $11.22$52K−4.7% of holding+12.8%−10.2%94,615Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08LETICA NICHOLASofficerSale3,956 @ $11.21$44K−2.1% of holding+12.8%−10.2%180,712Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08HANSON ALECIAofficerSale1,663 @ $11.21$19K−3.4% of holding+12.8%−10.2%47,239Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08Halm JillianofficerSale481 @ $11.31$5K−4.0% of holding+12.8%−10.2%11,623Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorDisposition1,213,9330Form 4
2026-08-25LETICA NICHOLASofficerDisposition615,3390Form 4
2026-08-25Sandberg Rebecca BofficerDisposition406,6880Form 4
2026-08-25RUSH ROBERTofficerDisposition242,4700Form 4
2026-08-25HANSON ALECIAofficerDisposition143,1710Form 4
2026-08-25KASNET STEPHEN GdirectorDisposition95,9930Form 4
2026-08-25Dellal WilliamofficerDisposition83,3880Form 4
2026-08-25STERN JAMES AdirectorDisposition64,8430Form 4
2026-08-25Hammond KarendirectorDisposition59,0970Form 4
2026-08-25Woodhouse Hope BdirectorDisposition56,4440Form 4
2026-08-25Campbell James DofficerDisposition56,0490Form 4
2026-08-25BOUCHER NATHANofficerDisposition48,1420Form 4
2026-08-25BENDER JAMES JdirectorDisposition47,1660Form 4
2026-08-25Abraham SpencerdirectorDisposition35,0390Form 4
2026-08-25DAS SANJIVdirectorDisposition20,4100Form 4
2026-08-25Halm JillianofficerDisposition18,8330Form 4
2026-08-25GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorDisposition3,0250Form 4
2026-08-25BOUCHER NATHANofficerAward / grant20,89348,142Form 4
2026-08-25LETICA NICHOLASofficerAward / grant297,105615,339Form 4
2026-08-25Sandberg Rebecca BofficerAward / grant168,271406,688Form 4
2026-08-25HANSON ALECIAofficerAward / grant65,204143,171Form 4
2026-08-25GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorAward / grant667,8271,213,933Form 4
2026-08-25Campbell James DofficerAward / grant18,99356,049Form 4
2026-08-25RUSH ROBERTofficerAward / grant99,912242,470Form 4
2026-01-12Halm JillianofficerAward / grant1,84720,956Form 4
2026-01-07Campbell James DofficerAward / grant24,08938,748Form 4
2026-01-07Sandberg Rebecca BofficerAward / grant81,699238,417Form 4
2026-01-07Dellal WilliamofficerAward / grant46,68583,388Form 4
2026-01-07Halm JillianofficerAward / grant9,33719,109Form 4
2026-01-07BOUCHER NATHANofficerAward / grant14,70528,516Form 4
2026-01-07HANSON ALECIAofficerAward / grant32,67977,967Form 4
2026-01-07LETICA NICHOLASofficerAward / grant151,727318,234Form 4
2026-01-07RUSH ROBERTofficerAward / grant44,351142,558Form 4
2025-12-30GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorWithheld for tax154,593546,106Form 4
2025-12-18GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorAward / grant309,187804,592Form 4
2025-12-17LETICA NICHOLASofficerAward / grant61,714221,995Form 4
2025-12-17Sandberg Rebecca BofficerAward / grant37,285184,088Form 4
2025-12-17GREENBERG WILLIAM ROSSdirectorAward / grant103,948495,405Form 4
2025-12-17HANSON ALECIAofficerAward / grant12,34256,056Form 4
2025-12-17RUSH ROBERTofficerAward / grant34,714121,801Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.