Issued 2026-09-16 at $238.88 · now $238.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TWLO has typically landed between $182.39 and $306.68 — a range of −23.6% to +28.4% from the issuance price $238.88.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,551 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-06-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($238.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TWLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $238.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $238.88 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $238.84 (-0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $214.92–$262.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $182.39–$306.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,551 windows spanning 2016-06-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-10-07 | −49.6% | −49.6% | +0.0% |
| 2016-09-29 | −48.5% | −48.5% | +0.0% |
| 2016-10-06 | −48.0% | −48.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-13 | +98.4% | +0.0% | +98.4% |
| 2020-04-07 | +95.9% | +0.0% | +95.9% |
| 2020-04-08 | +95.9% | +0.0% | +95.9% |
2,551 overlapping windows · 2016-06-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+8.2%
n=10
Feb
60%
+1.4%
n=10
Mar
40%
−4.3%
n=10
Apr
60%
+2.6%
n=10
May
50%
+13.8%
n=10
Jun
70%
+3.9%
n=10
Jul
82%
+4.2%
n=11
Aug
45%
+4.0%
n=11
Sep
45%
−1.3%
n=11
Oct
50%
−0.7%
n=10
Nov
50%
+4.6%
n=10
Dec
40%
−0.9%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 610 @ $233.32 | $142K | −0.6% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 310 @ $234.30 | $73K | −0.3% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 108,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 304 @ $234.95 | $71K | −0.3% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 108,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 170 @ $238.10 | $40K | −0.2% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 108,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Stafman Andrew | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $247.08 | $123.5M | −80.6% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 1,504 @ $251.74 | $379K | −4.9% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 628 @ $252.55 | $159K | −2.2% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,417 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 487 @ $249.17 | $121K | −1.6% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,906 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 357 @ $250.83 | $90K | −1.2% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,549 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 334 @ $254.78 | $85K | −1.2% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 190 @ $253.56 | $48K | −0.7% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,227 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 4,434 @ $211.26 | $937K | −2.1% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,154 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 2,891 @ $212.36 | $614K | −1.4% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,263 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 2,773 @ $206.99 | $574K | −1.3% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 218,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $210.08 | $483K | −1.1% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 215,588 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 1,060 @ $213.25 | $226K | −0.5% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 207,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $208.48 | $208K | −0.5% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 8,528 @ $205.43 | $1.8M | −7.2% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,724 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 4,286 @ $201.26 | $863K | −1.9% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,075 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 3,231 @ $200.20 | $647K | −1.4% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,361 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 2,780 @ $203.15 | $565K | −1.2% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 221,735 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 2,779 @ $201.30 | $559K | −2.2% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 2,430 @ $202.97 | $493K | −2.0% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 2,304 @ $200.28 | $461K | −1.8% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,701 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 1,950 @ $199.24 | $389K | −0.8% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 233,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 1,560 @ $202.49 | $316K | −0.7% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,515 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 1,340 @ $199.27 | $267K | −1.1% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 240 @ $203.68 | $49K | −0.2% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 74 @ $203.88 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 221,661 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 44,158 @ $235.88 | $10.4M | −15.8% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,542 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $199.01 | $398K | −6.1% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Stafman Andrew | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $184.14 | $184.1M | −61.7% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 620,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 8,772 @ $187.19 | $1.6M | −3.5% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 240,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 4,719 @ $186.55 | $880K | −1.9% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 248,783 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 4,469 @ $188.00 | $840K | −1.9% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,542 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 4,524 @ $185.15 | $838K | −1.8% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,502 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 3,986 @ $184.55 | $736K | −1.5% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 258,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 2,677 @ $182.75 | $489K | −1.0% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 262,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 2,084 @ $181.96 | $379K | −0.8% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 927 @ $180.70 | $168K | −0.3% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 266,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 1,828 @ $200.00 | $366K | −1.4% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,345 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 900 @ $197.80 | $178K | −0.7% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,173 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 476 @ $196.76 | $94K | −0.4% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,865 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Stafman Andrew | director | Sale | 675,000 @ $193.54 | $130.6M | −29.4% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,620,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $185.32 | $278K | −4.3% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 1,585 @ $149.00 | $236K | −4.4% of holding | +25.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Sale | 215 @ $149.18 | $32K | −0.6% of holding | +25.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,495 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $133.83 | $736K | −2.3% of holding | +38.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 5,315 @ $133.05 | $707K | −2.1% of holding | +38.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 243,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $131.93 | $369K | −1.1% of holding | +38.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 248,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $135.02 | $284K | −0.9% of holding | +38.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,542 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 5,047 @ $127.93 | $646K | −3.7% of holding | +35.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,341 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 4,342 @ $127.02 | $552K | −3.1% of holding | +35.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,388 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 5,893 @ $122.35 | $721K | −2.2% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 257,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 5,692 @ $122.45 | $697K | −3.8% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,269 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 4,781 @ $122.90 | $588K | −1.9% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 1,938 @ $123.30 | $239K | −1.4% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,331 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 1,850 @ $123.92 | $229K | −0.7% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 251,357 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Sale | 501 @ $124.11 | $62K | −0.4% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Sale | 100 @ $125.06 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 251,257 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
97 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Gift | 398 | 31,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bell Charles H | director | Award / grant | 399 | 18,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Dubinsky Donna | director | Award / grant | 391 | 391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Dubinsky Donna | director | Gift | 391 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Dubinsky Donna | director | Gift | 391 | 22,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Epstein Jeff | director | Award / grant | 540 | 39,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Stafman Andrew | director | Award / grant | 399 | 13,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | IMMELT JEFFREY R | director | Award / grant | 408 | 1,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | PATRICK DEVAL L | director | Award / grant | 391 | 18,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Award / grant | 398 | 398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Gift | 398 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Robinson Douglas A. | director | Award / grant | 361 | 3,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Suzuki Miyuki | director | Award / grant | 396 | 17,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Option exercise | 44,158 | 279,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Option exercise | 44,158 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Option exercise | 32,158 | 267,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Option exercise | 32,158 | 3,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Robinson Douglas A. | director | Award / grant | 3,526 | 3,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Bell Charles H | director | Award / grant | 688 | 17,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | IMMELT JEFFREY R | director | Award / grant | 703 | 34,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Stafman Andrew | director | Award / grant | 688 | 13,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Dubinsky Donna | director | Gift | 673 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Dubinsky Donna | director | Gift | 673 | 21,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Dubinsky Donna | director | Award / grant | 673 | 673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Epstein Jeff | director | Award / grant | 951 | 39,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | PATRICK DEVAL L | director | Award / grant | 673 | 18,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Gift | 686 | 36,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Suzuki Miyuki | director | Award / grant | 682 | 17,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Award / grant | 686 | 686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Gift | 686 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Shipchandler Khozema | director | Award / grant | 70,100 | 263,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Viggiano Aidan | officer | Award / grant | 37,554 | 148,767 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Epstein Jeff | director | Award / grant | 885 | 38,411 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Bell Charles H | director | Award / grant | 641 | 17,133 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | PATRICK DEVAL L | director | Award / grant | 627 | 17,654 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Gift | 639 | 35,609 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Award / grant | 639 | 639 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | ROTTENBERG ERIKA | director | Gift | 639 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Suzuki Miyuki | director | Award / grant | 635 | 16,751 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Stafman Andrew | director | Award / grant | 641 | 12,804 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.