TWINTwin Disc, IncorporatedIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.32 · now $24.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TWIN has typically landed between $20.07 and $30.71 — a range of −17.5% to +26.3% from the issuance price $24.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TWIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$20.07worst · -17.5%$30.71best · +26.3%
  • now $24.32 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.53 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.45–$26.61
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.07–$30.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2007-12-26−59.5%−59.5%+0.0%
2007-12-27−58.2%−58.2%+0.0%
2007-12-28−57.7%−58.2%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-09+98.2%+0.0%+98.2%
2009-07-10+94.8%+0.0%+96.8%
2009-07-08+88.5%+0.0%+88.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.1%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.0%
n=20
Mar
45%
+2.0%
n=20
Apr
60%
+5.1%
n=20
May
40%
−1.0%
n=20
Jun
60%
+2.3%
n=20
Jul
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Aug
60%
+4.9%
n=20
Sep
35%
−3.6%
n=20
Oct
50%
+2.8%
n=20
Nov
50%
+3.8%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$25$82026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $181K — Knutson Jeffrey Scott2026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $137K — Knutson Jeffrey Scott2026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $99K — Knutson Jeffrey Scott2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $418K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Knutson Jeffrey Scott — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed same dayofficer Knutson Jeffrey Scott — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Knutson Jeffrey Scott — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerSale7,482 @ $24.25$181K−4.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open164,891Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-04Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerSale5,902 @ $23.25$137K−3.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open172,373Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-03Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerSale4,302 @ $23.00$99K−2.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open178,275Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-05BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant78,693538,648Form 4
2026-08-05Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerAward / grant38,638192,001Form 4
2026-08-05BATTEN JOHN HdirectorWithheld for tax36,986501,662Form 4
2026-08-05BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant18,756520,418Form 4
2026-08-05Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerWithheld for tax18,158173,843Form 4
2026-08-05BATTEN JOHN HdirectorWithheld for tax15,479459,955Form 4
2026-08-05Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerAward / grant8,734182,577Form 4
2026-08-05Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerWithheld for tax7,600153,363Form 4
2026-08-03DOAR MICHAELdirectorAward / grant357130,363Form 4
2026-08-03Johnson David WdirectorAward / grant17975,280Form 4
2026-06-05Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerAward / grant7,044160,922Form 4
2026-05-01DOAR MICHAELdirectorAward / grant475130,006Form 4
2026-05-01Johnson David WdirectorAward / grant23775,101Form 4
2026-03-05Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerAward / grant3,198167,966Form 4
2026-03-04BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant5,040160,019Form 4
2026-02-27BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant6,000165,059Form 4
2026-02-26BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant535171,059Form 4
2026-02-25BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant2,901171,594Form 4
2026-02-25Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerAward / grant499171,164Form 4
2026-02-18BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant1,543174,495Form 4
2026-02-18BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant1,000201,156Form 4
2026-02-18BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant600475,434Form 4
2026-02-17BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant5,000476,034Form 4
2026-02-17BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant5,000176,038Form 4
2026-02-17BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant5,000202,156Form 4
2026-02-12BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant1,500483,934Form 4
2026-02-12BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant1,500183,519Form 4
2026-02-12BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant1,500209,656Form 4
2026-02-11BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant10,000211,156Form 4
2026-02-11BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant10,000185,019Form 4
2026-02-11BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant10,000485,434Form 4
2026-02-11Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerAward / grant4,108171,664Form 4
2026-02-10Giesselman Janet PlautdirectorAward / grant10,87651,735Form 4
2026-02-02DOAR MICHAELdirectorAward / grant935129,531Form 4
2026-02-02Johnson David WdirectorAward / grant23474,864Form 4
2025-12-09BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant107495,434Form 4
2025-12-08BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant1,782495,541Form 4
2025-12-05Knutson Jeffrey ScottofficerAward / grant3,663175,772Form 4
2025-12-05BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant1,190497,323Form 4
2025-11-12BATTEN JOHN HdirectorAward / grant9,102498,513Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.