TWI · TickerCove

TWITitan International, Inc.Industrials · Agricultural - Machineryas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.09 · now $7.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TWI has typically landed between $5.68 and $8.87 — a range of −19.9% to +25.2% from the issuance price $7.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.09 · 13% of range

$6.42 low$11.4 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.5%

typical move · IQR 17.5%

−19.9%worst (p90)+25.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TWI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.09 (+0.0%)
typical $7.13 (+0.5%)
middle 50% $6.51–$7.75
90% range $5.68–$8.87

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-26	−64.5%	−64.5%	+0.0%
2008-09-25	−63.6%	−63.6%	+0.0%
2009-02-05	−63.2%	−63.2%	+5.7%
3 best
2016-02-03	+112.2%	+0.0%	+112.2%
2020-11-04	+105.6%	+0.0%	+105.6%
2016-02-02	+103.2%	−3.2%	+103.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+4.7%

n=20

Feb

60%

+4.5%

n=20

Mar

35%

−3.2%

n=20

Apr

65%

+7.1%

n=20

May

40%

−1.9%

n=20

Jun

50%

+0.7%

n=20

Jul

55%

+0.1%

n=20

Aug

30%

−3.1%

n=20

Sep

40%

−2.8%

n=20

Oct

40%

−0.2%

n=20

Nov

50%

+4.7%

n=20

Dec

55%

+4.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-04	AIPCT Holdings LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	3,041,288 @ $8.95	$27.2M	−25.5% of holding	−16.8%	−31.8%	8,880,478	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-14	NARANCICH MAX	officer	Purchase	3,500 @ $8.56	$30K	+6.8% of holding	+1.2%	+22.7%	55,039	Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-07-01	CASHIN RICHARD M JR	director	Sale	212,398 @ $10.34	$2.2M	−54.6% of holding	−21.5%	−36.8%	176,461	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-30	CASHIN RICHARD M JR	director	Sale	63,950 @ $10.31	$659K	−14.1% of holding	−14.4%	−36.8%	388,859	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-20	Eheli Anthony	officer	Sale	25,000 @ $9.24	$231K	−35.6% of holding	−1.9%	−25.4%	45,276	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-23	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Award / grant	24,725	24,725	Form 4
2026-06-23	CASHIN RICHARD M JR	director	Award / grant	24,725	251,045	Form 4
2026-06-23	Guinn Max A	director	Award / grant	24,725	190,061	Form 4
2026-06-23	SOAVE ANTHONY L	director	Award / grant	24,725	1,193,348	Form 4
2026-06-23	TAYLOR MAURICE M JR	director	Award / grant	24,725	677,356	Form 4
2026-06-23	Thompson Laura K	director	Award / grant	12,362	59,377	Form 4
2026-06-20	NARANCICH MAX	officer	Withheld for tax	1,461	85,737	Form 4
2026-03-14	Reitz Paul G	director	Withheld for tax	13,305	537,658	Form 4
2026-03-14	Martin David A	officer	Withheld for tax	6,226	307,188	Form 4
2026-03-14	Eheli Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	2,821	76,424	Form 4
2026-03-14	Pach James M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,111	29,819	Form 4
2026-03-10	Reitz Paul G	director	Withheld for tax	23,654	550,963	Form 4
2026-03-10	Martin David A	officer	Withheld for tax	11,206	313,414	Form 4
2026-03-10	Eheli Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	6,031	79,245	Form 4
2026-03-10	NARANCICH MAX	officer	Withheld for tax	2,841	87,198	Form 4
2026-03-10	Pach James M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,904	30,930	Form 4
2026-03-10	Reitz Paul G	director	Award / grant	80,000	574,617	Form 4
2026-03-10	Eheli Anthony	officer	Award / grant	40,000	85,276	Form 4
2026-03-10	NARANCICH MAX	officer	Award / grant	35,000	90,039	Form 4
2026-03-10	Pach James M	officer	Award / grant	20,000	32,834	Form 4
2026-03-10	Martin David A	officer	Award / grant	40,000	324,620	Form 4
2026-02-09	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Option exercise	20,000	257,468	Form 4
2026-02-09	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Option exercise	20,000	0	Form 4
2025-06-20	NARANCICH MAX	officer	Withheld for tax	1,461	51,539	Form 4
2025-06-16	Guinn Max A	director	Award / grant	19,780	165,336	Form 4
2025-06-16	SOAVE ANTHONY L	director	Award / grant	19,780	1,168,623	Form 4
2025-06-16	CASHIN RICHARD M JR	director	Award / grant	19,780	226,320	Form 4
2025-06-16	TAYLOR MAURICE M JR	director	Award / grant	19,780	652,631	Form 4
2025-06-16	Thompson Laura K	director	Award / grant	9,890	47,015	Form 4
2025-06-16	RACHESKY MARK H MD	director	Award / grant	9,890	9,890	Form 4
2025-03-14	Reitz Paul G	director	Withheld for tax	13,906	494,617	Form 4
2025-03-14	Martin David A	officer	Withheld for tax	7,226	284,620	Form 4
2025-03-14	Eheli Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	2,621	70,276	Form 4
2025-03-13	Reitz Paul G	director	Withheld for tax	106,995	508,523	Form 4
2025-03-13	Martin David A	officer	Withheld for tax	25,018	291,846	Form 4
2025-03-13	Martin David A	officer	Award / grant	57,710	316,864	Form 4
2025-03-13	Reitz Paul G	director	Award / grant	230,840	615,518	Form 4
2025-03-10	Reitz Paul G	director	Withheld for tax	24,721	304,678	Form 4
2025-03-10	Martin David A	officer	Withheld for tax	14,451	214,154	Form 4
2025-03-10	Eheli Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	5,021	47,897	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i