Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.05 · now $27.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TWFG has typically landed between $22.59 and $32.31 — a range of −16.5% to +19.4% from the issuance price $27.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
522 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-07-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TWFG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $27.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.67 (+2.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.62–$29.72
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.59–$32.31
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-23 | −34.1% | −34.1% | +4.0% |
| 2026-01-22 | −33.5% | −33.5% | +3.9% |
| 2026-01-26 | −33.3% | −36.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-04 | +37.3% | +0.0% | +37.3% |
| 2026-06-03 | +35.1% | +0.0% | +38.7% |
| 2026-06-02 | +35.1% | −2.6% | +35.1% |
522 overlapping windows · 2024-07-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 7,865 @ $19.45 | $153K | +1.0% of holding | +30.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 765,587 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 11,000 @ $19.09 | $210K | +1.5% of holding | +38.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 757,722 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 22,994 @ $18.62 | $428K | +3.2% of holding | +35.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 746,722 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 16,500 @ $19.25 | $318K | +2.3% of holding | +36.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 723,728 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 16,500 @ $19.33 | $319K | +2.4% of holding | +32.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 707,228 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 11,330 @ $18.87 | $214K | +1.7% of holding | +29.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 690,728 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 11,000 @ $18.87 | $208K | +1.6% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 679,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 24,880 @ $18.62 | $463K | +3.9% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 668,398 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 11,000 @ $19.23 | $212K | +1.7% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 643,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 11,000 @ $18.89 | $208K | +1.8% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 632,518 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 17,538 @ $18.52 | $325K | +2.9% of holding | +12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 621,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Purchase | 15,745 @ $18.79 | $296K | +2.7% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 603,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
60 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Bunch Richard F. III | director | Withheld for tax | 17,733 | 313,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Bunch Michelle Caroline | director | Withheld for tax | 17,733 | 313,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Nolan Katherine C | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,559 | 82,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Zwinggi Janice E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,710 | 57,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Benes Julie E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,171 | 37,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Bunch Charles Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,163 | 36,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bunch Michelle Caroline | director | Gift | 264,784 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bunch Michelle Caroline | director | Gift | 529,568 | 33,364,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bunch Michelle Caroline | director | Gift | 264,784 | 264,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bunch Richard F. III | director | Gift | 529,568 | 33,364,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bunch Richard F. III | director | Gift | 264,784 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bunch Richard F. III | director | Gift | 264,784 | 264,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bunch Michelle Caroline | director | Withheld for tax | 2,133 | 331,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bunch Richard F. III | director | Withheld for tax | 2,133 | 331,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Zwinggi Janice E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 839 | 65,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Nolan Katherine C | officer | Withheld for tax | 828 | 93,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Benes Julie E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 337 | 43,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bunch Charles Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 326 | 42,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Padgett Gene | officer | Withheld for tax | 224 | 4,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bunch Richard F. III | director | Award / grant | 4,000 | 15,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Benes Julie E. | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 43,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Anderson Jonathan James | director | Award / grant | 4,000 | 10,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | DOAK MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 4,000 | 10,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Vijaya Gopal Mohan Babu | officer | Award / grant | 3,250 | 3,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wong Janet S. | director | Award / grant | 4,000 | 12,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Zwinggi Janice E. | officer | Award / grant | 12,500 | 65,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Ferracone Robin A | director | Award / grant | 4,000 | 26,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Nolan Katherine C | officer | Award / grant | 12,500 | 94,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | McGuire Andrew Vincent | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 4,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Padgett Gene | officer | Award / grant | 3,250 | 5,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bunch Charles Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 43,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bunch Michelle Caroline | director | Award / grant | 4,000 | 15,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bunch Michelle Caroline | director | Award / grant | 27,500 | 333,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bunch Richard F. III | director | Award / grant | 27,500 | 333,462 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Vijaya Gopal Mohan Babu | officer | Award / grant | 427 | 427 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Bunch Michelle Caroline | director | Withheld for tax | 17,749 | 305,962 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Bunch Richard F. III | director | Withheld for tax | 17,749 | 305,962 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Nolan Katherine C | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,588 | 81,936 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Zwinggi Janice E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,338 | 53,363 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Benes Julie E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,187 | 38,962 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.