TWTradeweb Markets Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $102.37 · now $102.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TW has typically landed between $90.51 and $115.27 — a range of −11.6% to +12.6% from the issuance price $102.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,840 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-04-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($102.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $102.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$90.51worst · -11.6%$115.27best · +12.6%
  • now $102.37 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $102.81 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $97.25–$108.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $90.51–$115.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,840 windows spanning 2019-04-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-04-07−32.8%−32.8%+0.2%
2022-04-08−30.8%−32.9%+0.0%
2020-02-21−29.2%−30.0%+0.2%
3 best
2020-03-18+42.6%+0.0%+46.8%
2020-03-23+39.9%+0.0%+45.1%
2020-03-16+32.7%−6.8%+32.7%

1,840 overlapping windows · 2019-04-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
29%
−0.8%
n=7
Feb
71%
+8.1%
n=7
Mar
57%
+1.2%
n=7
Apr
29%
−1.3%
n=7
May
63%
+4.1%
n=8
Jun
50%
−1.5%
n=8
Jul
63%
+3.2%
n=8
Aug
63%
+0.6%
n=8
Sep
25%
−6.9%
n=8
Oct
57%
+3.5%
n=7
Nov
100%
+7.8%
n=7
Dec
57%
+1.1%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$131$922026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $274K — Dixon Troy2026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $58K — Dixon Troy2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Peterson Justin2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $45K — BERNS STEVEN2026-04-15: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Peterson Justin2026-03-23: 2 insider sales, $275K — Furber Sara, Friedman Douglas2026-03-20: 5 insider sales, $1.4M — Furber Sara, Dixon Troy, Friedman Douglas, Peterson Justin …2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $401K — Peterson Justin2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $9.1M — Hult William2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Bruni Enrico2026-02-10: 8 insider sales, $26.3M — Hult William, Furber Sara, Friedman Douglas, Peterson Justin …2026-02: 9 open-market sales, $28.4M2026-03: 9 open-market sales, $11.2M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $2.6M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $45K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $2.2M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $332K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Dixon Troy — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dixon Troy — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Peterson Justin — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BERNS STEVEN — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Peterson Justin — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Furber Sara — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Friedman Douglas — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Furber Sara — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Dixon Troy — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Friedman Douglas — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Peterson Justin — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Clack Amy — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Peterson Justin — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hult William — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bruni Enrico — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hult William — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Furber Sara — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hult William — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Friedman Douglas — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Peterson Justin — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Friedman Douglas — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Clack Amy — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Clack Amy — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Dixon TroyofficerSale2,584 @ $106.06$274K−7.5% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open31,863Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14Dixon TroyofficerSale546 @ $105.74$58K−1.6% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open34,447Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-01Peterson JustinofficerSale21,221 @ $102.00$2.2M−58.5% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open15,070Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26BERNS STEVENdirectorSale425 @ $105.26$45K−8.0% of holding−8.5%not yet — horizon still open4,884Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15Peterson JustinofficerSale21,221 @ $120.66$2.6M−36.9% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open36,291Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-23Furber SaraofficerSale1,614 @ $124.86$202K−6.8% of holding−16.7%not yet — horizon still open22,264Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23Friedman DouglasofficerSale592 @ $124.86$74K−4.1% of holding−16.7%not yet — horizon still open13,921Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-20Furber SaraofficerSale4,911 @ $125.13$615K−17.1% of holding−17.0%not yet — horizon still open23,878Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20Dixon TroyofficerSale2,584 @ $125.75$325K−6.9% of holding−17.0%not yet — horizon still open34,993Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20Friedman DouglasofficerSale2,219 @ $125.12$278K−13.3% of holding−17.0%not yet — horizon still open14,513Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20Peterson JustinofficerSale1,005 @ $125.13$126K−1.7% of holding−17.0%not yet — horizon still open57,512Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20Clack AmyofficerSale271 @ $125.75$34K−1.2% of holding−17.0%not yet — horizon still open21,557Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-18Peterson JustinofficerSale3,212 @ $124.76$401K−5.2% of holding−11.8%not yet — horizon still open58,517Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Hult WilliamdirectorSale72,450 @ $125.62$9.1M−36.4% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open126,738Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20Bruni EnricoofficerSale17,380 @ $119.27$2.1M−14.5% of holding+8.7%−24.8%102,319Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-10Hult WilliamdirectorSale72,450 @ $115.45$8.4M−29.2% of holding+9.7%−18.2%175,506Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Furber SaraofficerSale63,128 @ $115.10$7.3M−72.9% of holding+9.7%−18.2%23,520Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Hult WilliamdirectorSale48,768 @ $115.45$5.6M−27.8% of holding+9.7%−18.2%126,738Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Friedman DouglasofficerSale23,789 @ $115.45$2.7M−54.5% of holding+9.7%−18.2%19,888Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Peterson JustinofficerSale11,254 @ $115.47$1.3M−16.1% of holding+9.7%−18.2%58,841Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Friedman DouglasofficerSale6,760 @ $115.50$781K−34.0% of holding+9.7%−18.2%13,128Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Clack AmyofficerSale839 @ $114.68$96K−4.8% of holding+9.7%−18.2%16,524Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10Clack AmyofficerSale838 @ $114.68$96K−4.6% of holding+9.7%−18.2%17,363Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14BERNS STEVENdirectorSale450 @ $141.30$64K−15.8% of holding−3.5%−38.3%2,393Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07Furber SaraofficerSale1,786 @ $127.60$228K−3.0% of holding−1.5%−53.4%57,401Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-20Furber SaraofficerSale7,139 @ $142.83$1.0M−10.5% of holding−0.6%−39.9%61,020Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-20Bruni EnricoofficerSale1,624 @ $142.74$232K−1.9% of holding−0.6%−39.9%85,929Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-19Peterson JustinofficerSale4,635 @ $141.50$656K−10.1% of holding+1.4%−38.2%41,289Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-19Friedman DouglasofficerSale3,061 @ $141.59$433K−10.2% of holding+1.4%−38.2%26,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-19Bruni EnricoofficerSale2,872 @ $141.54$406K−3.2% of holding+1.4%−38.2%87,553Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-19Zucker ScottofficerSale2,314 @ $141.48$327K−9.9% of holding+1.4%−38.2%21,033Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-19Bruni EnricoofficerSale1,797 @ $141.48$254K−1.9% of holding+1.4%−38.2%90,425Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Hult WilliamdirectorSale15,163 @ $132.38$2.0M−8.8% of holding−8.4%−3.6%158,016Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Furber SaraofficerSale9,826 @ $132.39$1.3M−13.0% of holding−8.4%−3.6%65,683Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Peterson JustinofficerSale6,669 @ $132.38$883K−12.9% of holding−8.4%−3.6%44,890Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Friedman DouglasofficerSale4,274 @ $132.36$566K−12.7% of holding−8.4%−3.6%29,425Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Zucker ScottofficerSale3,654 @ $132.38$484K−13.7% of holding−8.4%−3.6%23,048Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

113 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-19BERNS STEVENdirectorAward / grant1,6455,309Form 4
2026-05-19AIGRAIN JACQUESdirectorAward / grant2,66812,222Form 4
2026-05-19Opoku LisadirectorAward / grant1,6454,469Form 4
2026-05-19Madoff PauladirectorAward / grant1,91216,845Form 4
2026-05-19Repetto Richard HdirectorAward / grant1,6453,178Form 4
2026-05-19Yared RanadirectorAward / grant1,6454,239Form 4
2026-05-19Ganeles ScottdirectorAward / grant1,64515,330Form 4
2026-03-17Hult WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax5,656144,285Form 4
2026-03-17Furber SaraofficerWithheld for tax1,67928,783Form 4
2026-03-17Bruni EnricoofficerWithheld for tax1,511108,228Form 4
2026-03-17Peterson JustinofficerWithheld for tax1,24161,726Form 4
2026-03-17Clack AmyofficerWithheld for tax1,12821,825Form 4
2026-03-17Friedman DouglasofficerWithheld for tax61916,731Form 4
2026-03-17Furber SaraofficerAward / grant628,789Form 4
2026-03-17Peterson JustinofficerAward / grant361,729Form 4
2026-03-17Hult WilliamdirectorAward / grant17144,302Form 4
2026-03-17Bruni EnricoofficerAward / grant6108,234Form 4
2026-03-17Friedman DouglasofficerAward / grant116,732Form 4
2026-03-17Clack AmyofficerAward / grant321,828Form 4
2026-03-15Hult WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax14,408149,837Form 4
2026-03-15Dixon TroyofficerWithheld for tax5,36437,552Form 4
2026-03-15Furber SaraofficerWithheld for tax5,07730,418Form 4
2026-03-15Bruni EnricoofficerWithheld for tax4,376109,695Form 4
2026-03-15Peterson JustinofficerWithheld for tax3,94062,938Form 4
2026-03-15Friedman DouglasofficerWithheld for tax2,30617,332Form 4
2026-03-15Furber SaraofficerAward / grant11,97535,495Form 4
2026-03-15Hult WilliamdirectorAward / grant37,507164,245Form 4
2026-03-15Hult WilliamdirectorAward / grant104149,941Form 4
2026-03-15Dixon TroyofficerAward / grant10,85042,916Form 4
2026-03-15Dixon TroyofficerAward / grant2537,577Form 4
2026-03-15Friedman DouglasofficerAward / grant6,51019,638Form 4
2026-03-15Friedman DouglasofficerAward / grant1817,350Form 4
2026-03-15Furber SaraofficerAward / grant4430,462Form 4
2026-03-15Peterson JustinofficerAward / grant8,03766,878Form 4
2026-03-15Peterson JustinofficerAward / grant2962,967Form 4
2026-03-15Bruni EnricoofficerAward / grant11,752114,071Form 4
2026-03-15Bruni EnricoofficerAward / grant44109,739Form 4
2026-03-15Clack AmyofficerAward / grant6,42922,953Form 4
2026-03-03Hult WilliamdirectorOption exercise72,450199,188Form 4
2026-03-03Hult WilliamdirectorOption exercise72,4500Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-07-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-10-01$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousepurchase2025-11-182025-10-09$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousepurchase2025-11-182025-10-09$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2025-10-072025-09-04$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2025-10-072025-09-04$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousepurchase2025-04-142025-03-20$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousepurchase2025-04-142025-03-20$1–15K
Lamar SmithHouseexchange2016-02-092016-01-05$1–15K
Lamar SmithHousepurchase2015-09-162015-08-04$1–15K
Thomas MacarthurHousesale2015-06-072015-05-27$1–15K
Lamar SmithHousesale2015-04-132015-03-09$1–15K
Lamar SmithHousepurchase2015-01-192014-12-02$1–15K
Mr. Lamar SmithHousepurchase2014-11-122014-10-16$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.