Issued 2026-08-13 at $62.16 · now $61.43 (2026-08-13, −1.2% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, TVTX has typically landed between $47.83 and $82.26 — a range of −23.1% to +32.3% from the issuance price $62.16.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,437 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-11-08 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($62.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TVTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $62.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $61.43 (-1.2%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $63.31 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $56.39–$70.24
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $47.83–$82.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-09-08 | −50.6% | −50.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-13 | −48.9% | −48.9% | +1.4% |
| 2023-09-14 | −48.5% | −49.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-11-08 | +213.3% | +0.0% | +213.3% |
| 2012-11-14 | +156.2% | +0.0% | +156.2% |
| 2012-11-15 | +148.8% | +0.0% | +156.2% |
3,437 overlapping windows · 2012-11-08 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-03-12 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Sparsentan Treatment in Pediatrics With Proteinuric Glomerular Diseases (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Pegtibatinase as a Treatment for Patients With Classical Homocystinuria (HCU) (Also Known as the COMPOSE Study) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Investigate Efficacy and Safety of Pegtibatinase Compared With Placebo in Participants ≥12 to ≤65 Years of Age With Classical Homocystinuria (HCU) Due to Cystathionine Beta Synthase Deficiency Receiving Standard of Care Treatment (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Long-term Extension Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Pegtibatinase Treatment in Participants ≥5 to ≤65 Years of Age With Classical Homocystinuria (HCU) (ENSEMBLE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.