Issued 2026-09-25 at $59.44 · now $59.44 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, TVTX has typically landed between $45.74 and $78.05 — a range of −23.1% to +31.3% from the issuance price $59.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,467 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-11-08 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($59.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TVTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $59.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $59.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $60.39 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $53.74–$67.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.74–$78.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,467 windows spanning 2012-11-08 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-09-08 | −50.6% | −50.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-13 | −48.9% | −48.9% | +1.4% |
| 2023-09-14 | −48.5% | −49.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-11-08 | +213.3% | +0.0% | +213.3% |
| 2012-11-14 | +156.2% | +0.0% | +156.2% |
| 2012-11-15 | +148.8% | +0.0% | +156.2% |
3,467 overlapping windows · 2012-11-08 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-03-12 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Sparsentan Treatment in Pediatrics With Proteinuric Glomerular Diseases (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Pegtibatinase as a Treatment for Patients With Classical Homocystinuria (HCU) (Also Known as the COMPOSE Study) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Investigate Efficacy and Safety of Pegtibatinase Compared With Placebo in Participants ≥12 to ≤65 Years of Age With Classical Homocystinuria (HCU) Due to Cystathionine Beta Synthase Deficiency Receiving Standard of Care Treatment (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Long-term Extension Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Pegtibatinase Treatment in Participants ≥5 to ≤65 Years of Age With Classical Homocystinuria (HCU) (ENSEMBLE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
57%
+5.4%
n=14
Feb
57%
+6.7%
n=14
Mar
43%
+3.1%
n=14
Apr
50%
+1.6%
n=14
May
50%
+1.3%
n=14
Jun
57%
+2.9%
n=14
Jul
50%
+1.0%
n=14
Aug
57%
+6.6%
n=14
Sep
43%
+0.5%
n=14
Oct
54%
+3.7%
n=13
Nov
54%
+3.2%
n=13
Dec
57%
+9.3%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dube Eric M | director | Sale | 101,691 @ $64.59 | $6.6M | −18.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 439,688 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-17 | Heerma Peter | officer | Sale | 8,282 @ $65.07 | $539K | −6.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,066 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-17 | Dube Eric M | director | Sale | 6,802 @ $64.95 | $442K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 432,886 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-16 | Dube Eric M | director | Sale | 99,716 @ $63.26 | $6.3M | −15.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 529,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Dube Eric M | director | Sale | 96,125 @ $63.64 | $6.1M | −18.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 432,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Heerma Peter | officer | Sale | 93,604 @ $63.25 | $5.9M | −32.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 196,179 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Heerma Peter | officer | Sale | 79,113 @ $63.65 | $5.0M | −40.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Sale | 65,104 @ $63.12 | $4.1M | −30.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 145,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Sale | 47,746 @ $63.61 | $3.0M | −32.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 98,197 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Sale | 71,938 @ $62.05 | $4.5M | −32.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 147,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Sale | 63,907 @ $61.99 | $4.0M | −32.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 130,488 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Dube Eric M | director | Sale | 63,498 @ $61.99 | $3.9M | −12.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 465,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Sale | 29,021 @ $62.66 | $1.8M | −22.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 101,467 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Dube Eric M | director | Sale | 28,796 @ $62.66 | $1.8M | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 436,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Sale | 27,421 @ $62.59 | $1.7M | −18.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Cline Christopher R. | officer | Sale | 27,473 @ $62.00 | $1.7M | −19.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,543 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Inrig Jula | officer | Sale | 25,390 @ $62.02 | $1.6M | −17.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | REED ELIZABETH E | officer | Sale | 21,926 @ $62.03 | $1.4M | −15.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,963 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Cline Christopher R. | officer | Sale | 20,735 @ $62.61 | $1.3M | −18.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 89,808 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Inrig Jula | officer | Sale | 17,284 @ $62.62 | $1.1M | −14.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 102,491 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | REED ELIZABETH E | officer | Sale | 13,874 @ $62.63 | $869K | −11.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 107,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Calvin Sandra | officer | Sale | 4,275 @ $62.13 | $266K | −9.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,453 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Dube Eric M | director | Sale | 3,102 @ $63.64 | $197K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 433,156 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $63.65 | $191K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 98,467 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Cline Christopher R. | officer | Sale | 1,900 @ $63.69 | $121K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 87,908 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Inrig Jula | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $63.69 | $102K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 100,891 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Sale | 1,431 @ $65.31 | $93K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | REED ELIZABETH E | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $63.69 | $89K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 105,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $63.65 | $89K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,497 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Calvin Sandra | officer | Sale | 800 @ $62.85 | $50K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,653 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Cline Christopher R. | officer | Sale | 400 @ $65.31 | $26K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 87,508 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Inrig Jula | officer | Sale | 400 @ $65.31 | $26K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 100,491 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | REED ELIZABETH E | officer | Sale | 300 @ $65.31 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 105,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Calvin Sandra | officer | Sale | 300 @ $63.66 | $19K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Sale | 270 @ $65.31 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 98,197 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Dube Eric M | director | Sale | 270 @ $65.31 | $18K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 432,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Meckler Jeffrey A | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $67.46 | $944K | −12.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Meckler Jeffrey A | director | Sale | 3,100 @ $68.09 | $211K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 91,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Meckler Jeffrey A | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $65.39 | $111K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Meckler Jeffrey A | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $66.15 | $79K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 108,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Cline Christopher R. | officer | Sale | 642 @ $66.37 | $43K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LYONS GARY A | director | Sale | 4,100 @ $63.27 | $259K | −6.2% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LYONS GARY A | director | Sale | 900 @ $63.86 | $57K | −1.4% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | LYONS GARY A | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $63.50 | $165K | −4.0% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | LYONS GARY A | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $62.53 | $119K | −2.9% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | LYONS GARY A | director | Sale | 500 @ $64.16 | $32K | −0.8% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Coughlin Timothy | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $50.07 | $501K | −15.1% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,250 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Baynes Roy D. | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $50.00 | $225K | −9.8% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Coughlin Timothy | director | Sale | 3,250 @ $43.49 | $141K | −5.9% of holding | +23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,250 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Dube Eric M | director | Sale | 22,500 @ $43.95 | $989K | −4.9% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 432,886 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Sale | 2,763 @ $43.95 | $121K | −2.3% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,474 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | REED ELIZABETH E | officer | Sale | 2,076 @ $43.95 | $91K | −1.9% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,211 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | Inrig Jula | officer | Sale | 311 @ $43.95 | $14K | −0.3% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,238 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | Cline Christopher R. | officer | Sale | 310 @ $43.95 | $14K | −0.3% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,658 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | Baynes Roy D. | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $46.65 | $210K | −10.7% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Cline Christopher R. | officer | Sale | 2,181 @ $46.65 | $102K | −1.8% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | REED ELIZABETH E | officer | Sale | 2,174 @ $46.65 | $101K | −2.0% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Heerma Peter | officer | Sale | 2,174 @ $46.65 | $101K | −1.5% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Inrig Jula | officer | Sale | 2,174 @ $46.65 | $101K | −1.9% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,549 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | REED ELIZABETH E | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $45.00 | $900K | −16.0% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
182 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dube Eric M | director | Option exercise | 108,493 | 541,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 8,282 | 125,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 8,282 | 44,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Dube Eric M | director | Option exercise | 108,493 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Dube Eric M | director | Option exercise | 195,841 | 628,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 57,500 | 211,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 217,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 55,000 | 272,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 55,000 | 153,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 17,717 | 289,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 350 | 98,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 57,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 55,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 350 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 55,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 17,717 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Dube Eric M | director | Option exercise | 195,841 | 108,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Dube Eric M | director | Option exercise | 95,666 | 528,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 39,283 | 181,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 39,000 | 154,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 39,650 | 194,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | REED ELIZABETH E | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 142,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Cline Christopher R. | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 138,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 36,526 | 219,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Inrig Jula | officer | Option exercise | 32,395 | 145,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Calvin Sandra | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 44,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Calvin Sandra | officer | Option exercise | 1,625 | 47,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 1,381 | 182,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Calvin Sandra | officer | Option exercise | 1,250 | 46,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Dube Eric M | director | Option exercise | 95,666 | 304,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 39,650 | 350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | ROTE WILLIAM E. | officer | Option exercise | 39,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | REED ELIZABETH E | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Inrig Jula | officer | Option exercise | 32,395 | 43,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 36,526 | 28,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 1,381 | 53,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Heerma Peter | officer | Option exercise | 39,283 | 18,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Cline Christopher R. | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Calvin Sandra | officer | Option exercise | 1,625 | 17,875 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.