Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.89 · now $3.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TTGT has typically landed between $2.99 and $4.66 — a range of −23.2% to +19.9% from the issuance price $3.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,843 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-05-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TTGT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.72 (-4.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.38–$4.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.99–$4.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,843 windows spanning 2007-05-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-24 | −53.4% | −53.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-21 | −50.1% | −50.4% | +6.8% |
| 2025-03-20 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +7.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-08 | +110.3% | −7.7% | +110.3% |
| 2009-04-13 | +107.1% | −4.4% | +117.8% |
| 2009-04-09 | +98.0% | −13.0% | +98.4% |
4,843 overlapping windows · 2007-05-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
32%
+0.5%
n=19
Feb
37%
−4.6%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.7%
n=19
May
58%
+2.2%
n=19
Jun
45%
−1.4%
n=20
Jul
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.5%
n=20
Sep
40%
+1.2%
n=20
Oct
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Nov
58%
−0.1%
n=19
Dec
53%
+1.9%
n=19
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Sale | 21,427 @ $3.85 | $82K | −14.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 127,388 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Noreck Daniel T | officer | Sale | 5,633 @ $3.85 | $22K | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 85,480 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Rennick Charles D | officer | Sale | 3,388 @ $3.85 | $13K | −8.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,753 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Sale | 629 @ $4.75 | $3K | −0.6% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,628 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Sale | 19,321 @ $4.75 | $92K | −99.5% of holding | −20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 102 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $4.75 | $95K | −14.1% of holding | −21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,578 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Sanchez Perfecto | director | Sale | 1,865 @ $5.81 | $11K | −11.0% of holding | −7.7% | −44.0% | 15,129 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | FLASCHEN DAVID J S | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $5.97 | $119K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.2% | −40.5% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Nugent Gary John | director | Purchase | 4,200 @ $5.85 | $25K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.2% | −40.5% | 4,200 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-29 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Sale | 21,478 @ $5.75 | $123K | −13.2% of holding | −5.1% | −43.0% | 141,578 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Noreck Daniel T | officer | Sale | 8,459 @ $5.99 | $51K | −10.6% of holding | +1.7% | −49.8% | 71,519 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Rennick Charles D | officer | Sale | 3,498 @ $5.99 | $21K | −10.5% of holding | +1.7% | −49.8% | 29,695 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Tierney Sean Paul | officer | Sale | 3,112 @ $5.99 | $19K | −10.5% of holding | +1.7% | −49.8% | 26,584 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-20 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 11 @ $20.10 | $221 | +0.0% of holding | −10.4% | −68.0% | 148,248 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 1,114 @ $20.05 | $22K | +0.8% of holding | −15.8% | −69.9% | 148,237 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 13,500 @ $20.00 | $270K | +10.1% of holding | −16.0% | −68.4% | 147,123 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $20.17 | $81K | +3.1% of holding | −12.7% | −65.1% | 133,623 | Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 2,964 @ $20.98 | $62K | +2.3% of holding | −14.4% | −67.6% | 129,623 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 10,500 @ $21.90 | $230K | +9.0% of holding | −19.0% | −69.1% | 126,659 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 10,626 @ $22.56 | $240K | +10.1% of holding | −16.1% | −67.8% | 116,159 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $22.92 | $229K | +10.5% of holding | −19.1% | −68.7% | 105,533 | Form 4 · filed 16 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 17,500 @ $24.98 | $437K | +22.4% of holding | −18.6% | −69.7% | 95,533 | Form 4 · filed 17 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $23.80 | $119K | +6.8% of holding | −18.6% | −69.7% | 78,033 | Form 4 · filed 17 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 14,500 @ $25.70 | $373K | +25.6% of holding | −23.9% | −70.8% | 71,033 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $26.45 | $53K | +2.8% of holding | −23.9% | −70.8% | 73,033 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $26.52 | $212K | +16.8% of holding | −26.6% | −72.3% | 55,533 | Form 4 · filed 21 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $25.05 | $50K | +4.4% of holding | −26.6% | −72.3% | 47,533 | Form 4 · filed 21 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $27.00 | $27K | +1.8% of holding | −26.6% | −72.3% | 56,533 | Form 4 · filed 21 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 2,294 @ $25.08 | $58K | +5.4% of holding | −19.6% | −68.0% | 44,533 | Form 4 · filed 22 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $25.50 | $26K | +2.2% of holding | −19.6% | −68.0% | 45,533 | Form 4 · filed 22 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 34,244 @ $25.33 | $867K | +428.3% of holding | −19.3% | −71.5% | 42,239 | Form 4 · filed 23 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 4,187 @ $24.33 | $102K | +110.0% of holding | −19.3% | −71.5% | 7,995 | Form 4 · filed 23 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Purchase | 3,808 @ $22.35 | $85K | ownership Δ n/a | −19.3% | −71.5% | 3,808 | Form 4 · filed 23 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Nugent Gary John | director | Award / grant | 187,746 | 187,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Award / grant | 106,807 | 106,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Noreck Daniel T | officer | Award / grant | 99,346 | 99,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Rennick Charles D | officer | Award / grant | 60,392 | 60,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Morelli William Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 63,219 | 63,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Option exercise | 47,187 | 47,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Noreck Daniel T | officer | Option exercise | 18,875 | 18,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Rennick Charles D | officer | Option exercise | 7,864 | 7,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Noreck Daniel T | officer | Option exercise | 18,875 | 91,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Option exercise | 47,187 | 148,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Rennick Charles D | officer | Option exercise | 7,864 | 39,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Noreck Daniel T | officer | Option exercise | 18,875 | 91,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Option exercise | 47,187 | 148,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Rennick Charles D | officer | Option exercise | 7,864 | 39,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Noreck Daniel T | officer | Option exercise | 18,875 | 91,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Rennick Charles D | officer | Option exercise | 7,864 | 39,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Option exercise | 47,187 | 148,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Noreck Daniel T | officer | Option exercise | 18,875 | 91,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Rennick Charles D | officer | Option exercise | 7,864 | 39,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Option exercise | 47,187 | 148,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Van Houten Christina | director | Award / grant | 2,400 | 39,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Sanchez Perfecto | director | Award / grant | 1,867 | 16,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | FLASCHEN DAVID J S | director | Award / grant | 1,867 | 12,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Award / grant | 800 | 155,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hawk Don | director | Award / grant | 800 | 173,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hawk Don | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Van Houten Christina | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sanchez Perfecto | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FLASCHEN DAVID J S | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Van Houten Christina | director | Award / grant | 7,904 | 36,939 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | FLASCHEN DAVID J S | director | Award / grant | 6,702 | 10,592 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Sanchez Perfecto | director | Award / grant | 6,014 | 16,994 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Griffey Michael Sean | director | Award / grant | 4,468 | 154,476 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Hawk Don | director | Award / grant | 4,468 | 173,102 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | MCDOWELL MARY T | director | Award / grant | 25,774 | 33,343 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Niemiec Steven | officer | Award / grant | 58,310 | 58,310 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Nugent Gary John | director | Award / grant | 102,497 | 102,497 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Noreck Daniel T | officer | Award / grant | 48,105 | 48,105 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Morelli William Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 33,291 | 33,291 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.