Issued 2026-09-16 at $421.68 · now $421.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TT has typically landed between $380.63 and $476.19 — a range of −9.7% to +12.9% from the issuance price $421.68.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($421.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $421.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $421.68 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $428.05 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $406.94–$449.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $380.63–$476.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −50.0% | −50.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −47.5% | −47.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-30 | −45.4% | −48.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-31 | +57.6% | +0.0% | +59.1% |
| 2009-03-30 | +57.0% | −1.3% | +57.0% |
| 2009-04-08 | +51.0% | +0.0% | +53.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$106.3B
market cap
$12.93
EPS (TTM)
37.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$21.3B
'20'25
Net income$2.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr33.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.54
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$260.64
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$396.34
- Analyst target · range $450.00–$585.00$552.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$421.68
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.2%
n=19
Apr
74%
+7.2%
n=19
May
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
63%
+4.0%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.7%
n=19
Oct
67%
+2.0%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.9%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.8%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Regnery David S | director | Sale | 43,778 @ $475.00 | $20.8M | −31.1% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Schaeffer Melissa N. | director | Sale | 145 @ $472.27 | $68K | −6.9% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 4,593 @ $500.00 | $2.3M | −54.6% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Sale | 8,619 @ $450.00 | $3.9M | −12.5% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,576 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Regnery David S | director | Sale | 36,045 @ $422.69 | $15.2M | −27.1% of holding | +3.8% | −9.1% | 96,948 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 3,762 @ $422.70 | $1.6M | −49.6% of holding | +3.8% | −9.1% | 3,819 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Elwell Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 635 @ $422.70 | $268K | −8.2% of holding | +3.8% | −9.1% | 7,100 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | HAYES JOHN A | director | Purchase | 400 @ $430.44 | $172K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.0% | −11.8% | 400 | Form 4 · filed 96 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 7,663 @ $475.00 | $3.6M | −66.7% of holding | −6.4% | −9.8% | 3,819 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Regnery David S | director | Sale | 5,588 @ $462.60 | $2.6M | −5.4% of holding | −4.6% | −8.0% | 96,948 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Sale | 1,558 @ $462.77 | $721K | −2.5% of holding | −4.6% | −8.0% | 61,317 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Sale | 831 @ $462.57 | $384K | −1.4% of holding | −4.6% | −8.0% | 60,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 822 @ $462.57 | $380K | −17.7% of holding | −4.6% | −8.0% | 3,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Elwell Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 137 @ $462.48 | $63K | −1.9% of holding | −4.6% | −8.0% | 7,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Regnery David S | director | Sale | 987 @ $451.08 | $445K | −0.9% of holding | −2.5% | −7.1% | 106,206 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 439 @ $451.30 | $198K | −8.1% of holding | −2.5% | −7.1% | 4,969 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Elwell Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 46 @ $451.13 | $21K | −0.6% of holding | −2.5% | −7.1% | 7,308 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Elwell Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 600 @ $440.00 | $264K | −7.7% of holding | −8.2% | +3.3% | 7,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Elwell Elizabeth A. | officer | Sale | 401 @ $425.00 | $170K | −5.3% of holding | +3.2% | +2.2% | 7,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Regnery David S | director | Sale | 22,497 @ $410.00 | $9.2M | −15.4% of holding | −0.9% | +1.2% | 123,713 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 8,435 @ $400.00 | $3.4M | −70.1% of holding | +3.1% | −8.3% | 3,593 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 3,571 @ $380.00 | $1.4M | −49.8% of holding | +6.0% | −12.6% | 3,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Regnery David S | director | Sale | 26,989 @ $346.95 | $9.4M | −17.9% of holding | +2.9% | +7.1% | 123,711 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Sale | 8,434 @ $346.96 | $2.9M | −12.1% of holding | +2.9% | +7.1% | 61,365 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Turtz Evan M | officer | Sale | 3,778 @ $346.99 | $1.3M | −14.8% of holding | +2.9% | +7.1% | 21,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Magner Mairead | officer | Sale | 3,590 @ $346.95 | $1.2M | −21.7% of holding | +2.9% | +7.1% | 12,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 3,373 @ $350.00 | $1.2M | −48.4% of holding | +2.9% | +7.1% | 3,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Regnery David S | director | Sale | 3,120 @ $360.14 | $1.1M | −2.5% of holding | +2.1% | +12.6% | 123,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Sale | 856 @ $359.94 | $308K | −1.4% of holding | +2.1% | +12.6% | 61,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 819 @ $360.05 | $295K | −18.6% of holding | +2.1% | +12.6% | 3,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Turtz Evan M | officer | Sale | 477 @ $359.77 | $172K | −2.3% of holding | +2.1% | +12.6% | 20,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Sale | 375 @ $359.86 | $135K | −7.8% of holding | +2.1% | +12.6% | 4,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Magner Mairead | officer | Sale | 247 @ $360.12 | $89K | −1.9% of holding | +2.1% | +12.6% | 12,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Regnery David S | director | Sale | 2,318 @ $358.17 | $830K | −1.8% of holding | +2.0% | +15.5% | 126,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Sale | 770 @ $358.39 | $276K | −1.2% of holding | +2.0% | +15.5% | 62,221 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Turtz Evan M | officer | Sale | 318 @ $358.12 | $114K | −1.5% of holding | +2.0% | +15.5% | 20,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Magner Mairead | officer | Sale | 161 @ $358.37 | $58K | −1.2% of holding | +2.0% | +15.5% | 13,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Regnery David S | director | Sale | 2,754 @ $357.34 | $984K | −2.0% of holding | +1.0% | +14.9% | 132,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Sale | 876 @ $357.42 | $313K | −1.4% of holding | +1.0% | +14.9% | 63,841 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Turtz Evan M | officer | Sale | 514 @ $357.44 | $184K | −2.4% of holding | +1.0% | +14.9% | 21,115 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Magner Mairead | officer | Sale | 198 @ $357.61 | $71K | −1.5% of holding | +1.0% | +14.9% | 13,401 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Magner Mairead | officer | Sale | 4,329 @ $416.00 | $1.8M | −25.1% of holding | −6.3% | +3.9% | 12,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
156 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Regnery David S | director | Option exercise | 43,778 | 140,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Regnery David S | director | Option exercise | 43,778 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Award / grant | 826 | 4,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Award / grant | 3,085 | 3,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Lee Myles P | director | Withheld for tax | 224 | 8,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | de Jesus Assis Ana Paula | director | Withheld for tax | 224 | 567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | SURMA JOHN P | director | Withheld for tax | 112 | 13,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BERZIN ANN C | director | Withheld for tax | 112 | 85,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Pine Matthew Francis | director | Withheld for tax | 112 | 353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | George Mark R | director | Withheld for tax | 112 | 1,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | HAYES JOHN A | director | Withheld for tax | 112 | 2,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Schaeffer Melissa N. | director | Withheld for tax | 112 | 1,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Miller Boise April | director | Withheld for tax | 112 | 3,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Arnold Kirk E | director | Withheld for tax | 112 | 5,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | George Mark R | director | Award / grant | 438 | 2,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Arnold Kirk E | director | Award / grant | 438 | 6,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BERZIN ANN C | director | Award / grant | 438 | 85,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | HAYES JOHN A | director | Award / grant | 438 | 2,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Lee Myles P | director | Award / grant | 438 | 9,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Miller Boise April | director | Award / grant | 438 | 3,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Pine Matthew Francis | director | Award / grant | 438 | 791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | SURMA JOHN P | director | Award / grant | 438 | 13,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Schaeffer Melissa N. | director | Award / grant | 438 | 2,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | de Jesus Assis Ana Paula | director | Award / grant | 438 | 1,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | HUDSON LINDA P | director | Withheld for tax | 112 | 1,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Option exercise | 4,593 | 8,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Option exercise | 4,593 | 2,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Regnery David S | director | Withheld for tax | 27,685 | 132,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Withheld for tax | 6,621 | 69,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,890 | 7,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Elwell Elizabeth A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 253 | 7,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Magner Mairead | officer | Award / grant | 4,253 | 17,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Regnery David S | director | Award / grant | 63,730 | 160,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Award / grant | 15,240 | 75,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Elwell Elizabeth A. | officer | Award / grant | 888 | 7,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Award / grant | 6,652 | 10,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Option exercise | 7,663 | 11,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Simmons Donald E. | officer | Option exercise | 7,663 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Regnery David S | director | Withheld for tax | 2,183 | 102,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Kuehn Christopher J | director | Withheld for tax | 607 | 62,875 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-07 | $50–100K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-05 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.