TSNTyson Foods, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Agricultural Farm Productsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $52.12 · now $52.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TSN has typically landed between $46.65 and $57.10 — a range of −10.5% to +9.6% from the issuance price $52.12.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($52.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TSN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $52.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$46.65worst · -10.5%$57.1best · +9.6%
  • now $52.12 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $52.38 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $50.01–$54.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $46.65–$57.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-14−59.3%−59.3%+0.0%
2008-10-20−57.3%−59.1%+0.0%
2008-10-17−56.6%−56.6%+6.1%
3 best
2008-11-20+84.1%+0.0%+85.4%
2008-11-17+66.1%−8.2%+66.1%
2008-11-19+62.1%−12.5%+62.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$20.5B
market cap
$1.29
EPS (TTM)
44.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$54.4B
'20'25
Net income$474M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr0.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr2.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.49
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $52.12$27.81$81.72
  • DCF (intrinsic)$75.72
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$31.53
  • Analyst target · range $63.00–$78.00$73.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$52.12

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+2.6%
n=18
Feb
68%
+3.3%
n=19
Mar
68%
+3.6%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.6%
n=19
May
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Jun
42%
−2.0%
n=19
Jul
53%
−0.8%
n=19
Aug
63%
+2.1%
n=19
Sep
32%
−2.7%
n=19
Oct
44%
−1.7%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.8%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$68$492026-09-04: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Schomburger Jeffrey K2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $5.8M — TYSON JOHN H2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $374K — Calaway Curt2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $6.2M2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Schomburger Jeffrey K — Purchase on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TYSON JOHN H — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Calaway Curt — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Schomburger Jeffrey KdirectorPurchase19,450 @ $51.50$1.0M+24.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open100,130Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-28TYSON JOHN HdirectorSale100,301 @ $58.05$5.8M−3.2% of holding+2.0%−6.5%2,989,415Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-25Calaway CurtofficerSale6,539 @ $57.19$374K−17.0% of holding+0.8%−4.1%31,833Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

130 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-10TYSON JOHN HdirectorAward / grant51,87651,876Form 4
2026-07-10Schomburger Jeffrey KdirectorAward / grant48,41880,680Form 4
2026-07-10MORRIS WESofficerAward / grant25,93870,368Form 4
2026-05-10COLE DEVINofficerWithheld for tax7,51088,818Form 4
2026-05-10COLE DEVINofficerWithheld for tax3,01587,449Form 4
2026-05-09COLE DEVINofficerWithheld for tax76696,328Form 4
2026-02-10Deckinger Adam S.officerWithheld for tax2,71549,720Form 4
2026-02-09HANSON JACQUELINEofficerWithheld for tax1,92543,900Form 4
2026-02-07Tyson John R.directorWithheld for tax38043,350Form 4
2026-02-06Schomburger Jeffrey KdirectorAward / grant3,75431,797Form 4
2026-02-06White Noel WdirectorAward / grant2,91142,632Form 4
2026-02-06Tyson Olivia L.directorAward / grant2,9116,493Form 4
2026-02-06TYSON BARBARAdirectorAward / grant2,911259,520Form 4
2026-02-06Martinez MariadirectorAward / grant2,9118,399Form 4
2026-02-06BALEDGE LES RdirectorAward / grant2,91140,177Form 4
2026-02-06BRONCZEK DAVID JdirectorAward / grant2,91120,192Form 4
2026-02-06BORRAS MARIA CdirectorAward / grant2,91117,787Form 4
2026-02-06Beebe MikedirectorAward / grant2,91128,859Form 4
2026-02-06Bond SarahdirectorAward / grant2,9114,606Form 4
2026-02-06MILLER CHERYLdirectorAward / grant2,91127,759Form 4
2026-02-06Quinn Katherine BdirectorAward / grant2,9119,871Form 4
2026-02-05Bondar Lori JofficerOther acquisition8,6340Form 4
2026-02-05Bondar Lori JofficerOther acquisition9,14014,362Form 4
2025-12-23COLE DEVINofficerOther acquisition24,92397,094Form 4
2025-11-28TYSON JOHN HdirectorOption exercise109,2023,089,716Form 4
2025-11-28TYSON JOHN HdirectorOption exercise109,2020Form 4
2025-11-25Calaway CurtofficerOption exercise6,53938,372Form 4
2025-11-25Calaway CurtofficerOption exercise6,5390Form 4
2025-11-25King DonnieofficerAward / grant103,036500,626Form 4
2025-11-25Calaway CurtofficerAward / grant32,81464,708Form 4
2025-11-25HANSON JACQUELINEofficerAward / grant21,87645,430Form 4
2025-11-25COLE DEVINofficerAward / grant3,01070,389Form 4
2025-11-25Deckinger Adam S.officerAward / grant24,06451,739Form 4
2025-11-25COLE DEVINofficerAward / grant51,628122,017Form 4
2025-11-25Bondar Lori JofficerAward / grant2,62523,092Form 4
2025-11-25Tyson John R.directorAward / grant3,32543,568Form 4
2025-11-25Calaway CurtofficerAward / grant32,81432,814Form 4
2025-11-25King DonnieofficerAward / grant103,036103,036Form 4
2025-11-25Bondar Lori JofficerAward / grant2,6252,625Form 4
2025-11-25HANSON JACQUELINEofficerAward / grant21,87621,876Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$15–50K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-22$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-22$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-07-072025-06-27$100–250K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-12-162024-11-20$100–250K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-12-162024-11-20$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-02-132024-01-23$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-02-132024-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-01-042023-12-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-11-082023-10-31$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.