Issued 2026-09-16 at $417.72 · now $417.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TSM has typically landed between $361.52 and $495.34 — a range of −13.5% to +18.6% from the issuance price $417.72.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($417.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TSM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $417.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $417.72 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $427.56 (+2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $397.33–$457.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $361.52–$495.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −32.4% | −32.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −31.2% | −31.2% | +1.2% |
| 2008-09-24 | −26.3% | −27.0% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-06-29 | +46.6% | +0.0% | +47.6% |
| 2020-06-25 | +45.9% | −1.3% | +45.9% |
| 2020-06-30 | +40.8% | +0.0% | +46.6% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
65%
+3.4%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.1%
n=20
Mar
55%
+1.6%
n=20
Apr
70%
+2.4%
n=20
May
70%
+1.8%
n=20
Jun
55%
+2.4%
n=20
Jul
50%
+2.9%
n=20
Aug
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Sep
70%
+1.5%
n=20
Oct
75%
+2.3%
n=20
Nov
55%
+3.3%
n=20
Dec
60%
+3.1%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Wei Che-Chia | director | Purchase | 149 @ $76.20 | $11K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Mii Yuh-Jier | officer | Purchase | 71 @ $76.20 | $5K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,170 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Chin Yung-Pei | officer | Purchase | 71 @ $76.20 | $5K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,506 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Hou Yung-Chin | officer | Purchase | 61 @ $76.20 | $5K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,521 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Zhang Kevin Xiaoqiang | officer | Purchase | 61 @ $76.20 | $5K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Wu Shien-Yang | officer | Purchase | 57 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Cao Min | officer | Purchase | 56 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Fang Shu-Hua | officer | Purchase | 56 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,708 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Hsu Kuo-Chin | officer | Purchase | 55 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Yeap Choh Fei | officer | Purchase | 54 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Wang Ying-Lang | officer | Purchase | 54 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,499 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Chang Tzonz-Sheng | officer | Purchase | 53 @ $76.20 | $4K | +1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,481 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Yoo Chue-San | officer | Purchase | 53 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Lee Chun-Hsien | officer | Purchase | 52 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,041 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Lu Lee-Chung | officer | Purchase | 51 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Chuang Juiping | officer | Purchase | 50 @ $76.20 | $4K | +1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Jang Syun-Ming | officer | Purchase | 49 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Lin Chris Horng-Dar | officer | Purchase | 47 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,978 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Ku Yao-Ching | officer | Purchase | 47 @ $76.20 | $4K | +33.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Chuang Tzu-Sou | officer | Purchase | 47 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,853 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Chen Pei-Hung | officer | Purchase | 46 @ $76.20 | $4K | +3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | He Jun | officer | Purchase | 46 @ $76.20 | $4K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Lin Shyue-Shyh | officer | Purchase | 44 @ $76.20 | $3K | +14.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 340 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Tien Bor-Zen | officer | Purchase | 43 @ $76.20 | $3K | +15.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Yuan Lipen | officer | Purchase | 41 @ $76.20 | $3K | +3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Wu Yi-Huang | officer | Purchase | 40 @ $76.20 | $3K | +33.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 160 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Hwang Yuan-Ko | officer | Purchase | 40 @ $76.20 | $3K | +15.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 299 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Lu Chin-Sheng | officer | Purchase | 38 @ $76.20 | $3K | +33.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 151 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Chen Chih-Ho | officer | Purchase | 32 @ $76.20 | $2K | +18.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Huang Jen-Chau | officer | Purchase | 30 @ $76.20 | $2K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-07 | Tien Bor-Zen | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $76.20 | $381 | +6.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 85 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Yuan Lipen | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $73.77 | $74K | +16.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Yuan Lipen | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $74.50 | $75K | +20.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Yuan Lipen | officer | Purchase | 350 @ $73.58 | $26K | +21.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Wei Che-Chia | director | Purchase | 152 @ $73.31 | $11K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,987 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Mii Yuh-Jier | officer | Purchase | 72 @ $73.31 | $5K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,099 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chin Yung-Pei | officer | Purchase | 72 @ $73.31 | $5K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,435 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Hou Yung-Chin | officer | Purchase | 63 @ $73.31 | $5K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,460 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Zhang Kevin Xiaoqiang | officer | Purchase | 63 @ $73.31 | $5K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,286 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Wu Shien-Yang | officer | Purchase | 57 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,805 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Yeap Choh Fei | officer | Purchase | 57 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,493 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Fang Shu-Hua | officer | Purchase | 57 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,652 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Cao Min | officer | Purchase | 55 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,717 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Wang Ying-Lang | officer | Purchase | 55 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,445 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Hsu Kuo-Chin | officer | Purchase | 54 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,674 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Lee Chun-Hsien | officer | Purchase | 54 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,989 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chang Tzonz-Sheng | officer | Purchase | 54 @ $73.31 | $4K | +1.0% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,428 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Lu Lee-Chung | officer | Purchase | 52 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,434 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Yoo Chue-San | officer | Purchase | 51 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,641 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Jang Syun-Ming | officer | Purchase | 50 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,893 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chuang Juiping | officer | Purchase | 49 @ $73.31 | $4K | +1.2% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,242 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Lin Chris Horng-Dar | officer | Purchase | 49 @ $73.31 | $4K | +0.8% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,931 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Ku Yao-Ching | officer | Purchase | 47 @ $73.31 | $3K | +50.0% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 141 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chuang Tzu-Sou | officer | Purchase | 47 @ $73.31 | $3K | +0.8% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,806 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Lin Shyue-Shyh | officer | Purchase | 47 @ $73.31 | $3K | +18.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 296 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chen Pei-Hung | officer | Purchase | 46 @ $73.31 | $3K | +3.5% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,349 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | He Jun | officer | Purchase | 46 @ $73.31 | $3K | +0.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,361 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Tien Bor-Zen | officer | Purchase | 42 @ $73.31 | $3K | +18.4% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 270 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Yuan Lipen | officer | Purchase | 42 @ $73.31 | $3K | +3.4% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,260 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Wu Yi-Huang | officer | Purchase | 41 @ $73.31 | $3K | +51.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 120 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
31 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lin Chris Horng-Dar | officer | Award / grant | 8,175 | 136,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Chin Yung-Pei | officer | Award / grant | 32,204 | 5,204,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Chuang Juiping | officer | Award / grant | 8,175 | 247,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Chang Tzonz-Sheng | officer | Award / grant | 12,881 | 157,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Chuang Tzu-Sou | officer | Award / grant | 8,175 | 1,503,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fang Shu-Hua | officer | Award / grant | 20,313 | 878,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cao Min | officer | Award / grant | 12,881 | 520,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | He Jun | officer | Award / grant | 8,175 | 128,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Huang Jen-Chau | officer | Award / grant | 20,313 | 1,831,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hou Yung-Chin | officer | Award / grant | 20,313 | 682,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hsu Kuo-Chin | officer | Award / grant | 8,175 | 187,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jang Syun-Ming | officer | Award / grant | 8,175 | 452,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Lee Chun-Hsien | officer | Award / grant | 12,881 | 518,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Lu Lee-Chung | officer | Award / grant | 8,175 | 284,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mii Yuh-Jier | officer | Award / grant | 32,204 | 1,286,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Zhang Kevin Xiaoqiang | officer | Award / grant | 20,313 | 349,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wang Ying-Lang | officer | Award / grant | 12,881 | 375,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wei Che-Chia | director | Award / grant | 204,375 | 7,656,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wu Shien-Yang | officer | Award / grant | 12,881 | 643,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Yoo Chue-San | officer | Award / grant | 8,175 | 1,805,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Yeap Choh Fei | officer | Award / grant | 12,881 | 226,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Tseng Fang Churng | director | Gift | 5,000,000 | 10,132,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Tseng Fang Churng | director | Gift | 5,000,000 | 24,472,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Chang Tzonz-Sheng | officer | Gift | 173,000 | 144,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Chang Tzonz-Sheng | officer | Gift | 173,000 | 173,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Chuang Tzu-Sou | officer | Gift | 500,000 | 1,495,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Chuang Tzu-Sou | officer | Gift | 500,000 | 1,995,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Mii Yuh-Jier | officer | Code H | 150,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Mii Yuh-Jier | officer | Code H | 150,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tien Bor-Zen | officer | Code H | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tien Bor-Zen | officer | Code H | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.