TSHATaysha Gene Therapies, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.07 · now $5.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TSHA has typically landed between $3.15 and $8.14 — a range of −37.8% to +60.5% from the issuance price $5.07.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,478 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TSHA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.15worst · -37.8%$8.14best · +60.5%
  • now $5.07 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.83 (-4.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.04–$5.62
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.15–$8.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,478 windows spanning 2020-09-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-01-13−54.3%−54.3%+0.0%
2022-09-13−53.6%−53.6%+0.0%
2022-09-12−53.3%−53.3%+0.0%
3 best
2023-08-02+434.8%+0.0%+434.8%
2023-08-03+423.8%+0.0%+426.7%
2023-08-07+408.3%−2.4%+408.3%

1,478 overlapping windows · 2020-09-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • 2028-11-02 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Safety and Efficacy of TSHA-102 in Pediatric Females With Rett Syndrome (REVEAL Pediatric Study) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • June 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of TSHA-102 Gene Therapy in Pediatric Females Aged >2 to <4 Years With Rett Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • June 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 1/2/3 Study of TSHA-102 Gene Therapy in Females With Rett Syndrome (REVEAL Pivotal Study) (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
0%
−17.8%
n=6
Feb
50%
+9.2%
n=6
Mar
17%
−10.5%
n=6
Apr
50%
+7.9%
n=6
May
33%
+3.3%
n=6
Jun
33%
+0.2%
n=6
Jul
50%
−0.7%
n=6
Aug
67%
+62.2%
n=6
Sep
17%
−9.3%
n=6
Oct
17%
−4.0%
n=6
Nov
50%
+13.8%
n=6
Dec
67%
−3.4%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$7$32026-07-10: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Nagendran Sukumar2026-04-10: 1 insider sale, $892K — Nagendran Sukumar2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $7K — Alam Kamran2026-01-26: 3 insider sales, $424K — Nolan Sean P., Nagendran Sukumar, Alam Kamran2026-01-23: 3 insider sales, $1.4M — Nolan Sean P., Nagendran Sukumar, Alam Kamran2026-01-12: 1 insider sale, $942K — Nagendran Sukumar2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Nagendran Sukumar2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $523K — Nagendran Sukumar2025-09-10: 1 insider sale, $646K — Nagendran Sukumar2025-08-21: 2 insider sales, $318K — Nagendran Sukumar, Alam Kamran2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $318K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $646K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $523K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2026-01: 7 open-market sales, $2.8M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $7K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $892K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Nagendran Sukumar — Sale on 2026-07-10, filed same daydirector Nagendran Sukumar — Sale on 2026-04-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Alam Kamran — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Nolan Sean P. — Sale on 2026-01-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Nagendran Sukumar — Sale on 2026-01-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Alam Kamran — Sale on 2026-01-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Nolan Sean P. — Sale on 2026-01-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Nagendran Sukumar — Sale on 2026-01-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Alam Kamran — Sale on 2026-01-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Nagendran Sukumar — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Nagendran Sukumar — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector Nagendran Sukumar — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Nagendran Sukumar — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Nagendran Sukumar — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Alam Kamran — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-10Nagendran SukumardirectorSale200,000 @ $6.24$1.2M−17.6% of holding−1.9%not yet — horizon still open936,410Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-10Nagendran SukumardirectorSale200,000 @ $4.46$892K−15.0% of holding+43.1%not yet — horizon still open1,136,410Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-04Alam KamranofficerSale1,655 @ $4.52$7K−0.1% of holding+2.7%+27.0%1,442,131Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-26Nolan Sean P.directorSale41,312 @ $4.61$190K−1.4% of holding−1.1%+8.2%2,908,257Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-26Nagendran SukumardirectorSale26,918 @ $4.61$124K−2.0% of holding−1.1%+8.2%1,317,389Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-26Alam KamranofficerSale23,849 @ $4.61$110K−1.6% of holding−1.1%+8.2%1,443,786Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-23Nolan Sean P.directorSale136,789 @ $4.75$650K−4.4% of holding+5.2%+11.1%2,949,569Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-23Nagendran SukumardirectorSale89,132 @ $4.75$423K−6.2% of holding+5.2%+11.1%1,344,307Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-23Alam KamranofficerSale78,968 @ $4.75$375K−5.1% of holding+5.2%+11.1%1,467,635Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-12Nagendran SukumardirectorSale200,000 @ $4.71$942K−16.6% of holding−3.7%+18.2%1,006,439Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01Nagendran SukumardirectorSale260,047 @ $4.51$1.2M−20.5% of holding+23.6%+13.8%1,006,439Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-28Nagendran SukumardirectorSale110,125 @ $4.75$523K−9.9% of holding+18.6%+8.3%1,006,439Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-10Nagendran SukumardirectorSale200,000 @ $3.23$646K−16.6% of holding+50.7%+39.1%1,006,439Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21Nagendran SukumardirectorSale57,054 @ $2.85$163K−4.7% of holding−5.2%+60.7%1,165,289Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21Alam KamranofficerSale54,491 @ $2.85$155K−4.4% of holding−5.2%+60.7%1,187,603Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30Manning Paul BdirectorPurchase750,000 @ $2.75$2.1M+35.9% of holding−18.8%+58.3%2,841,704Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01Stalfort John A IIIdirectorAward / grant42,67142,671Form 4
2026-06-01Donenberg Phillip B.directorAward / grant21,335241,289Form 4
2026-06-01Donenberg Phillip B.directorAward / grant42,67142,671Form 4
2026-06-01Long Alison SdirectorAward / grant21,335127,178Form 4
2026-06-01Long Alison SdirectorAward / grant42,67142,671Form 4
2026-06-01Sepp-Lorenzino LauradirectorAward / grant21,335127,178Form 4
2026-06-01Stalfort John A IIIdirectorAward / grant21,3351,176,559Form 4
2026-06-01Sepp-Lorenzino LauradirectorAward / grant42,67142,671Form 4
2026-04-10Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise19,0211,336,410Form 4
2026-04-10Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise19,021455,920Form 4
2026-01-12Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise88,6761,206,439Form 4
2026-01-12Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise111,3241,117,763Form 4
2026-01-12Nolan Sean P.directorAward / grant1,008,0003,086,358Form 4
2026-01-12Alam KamranofficerAward / grant231,000231,000Form 4
2026-01-12Nolan Sean P.directorAward / grant648,000648,000Form 4
2026-01-12Nagendran SukumardirectorAward / grant427,0001,433,439Form 4
2026-01-12Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise111,324111,359Form 4
2026-01-12Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise88,676474,941Form 4
2026-01-12Nagendran SukumardirectorAward / grant274,000274,000Form 4
2026-01-12Alam KamranofficerAward / grant359,0001,546,603Form 4
2025-12-01Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise260,0471,266,486Form 4
2025-12-01Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise260,047563,617Form 4
2025-11-28Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise39,9531,116,564Form 4
2025-11-28Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise70,1721,076,611Form 4
2025-11-28Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise70,172222,683Form 4
2025-11-28Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise39,953823,664Form 4
2025-09-10Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise41,1501,206,439Form 4
2025-09-10Nagendran SukumardirectorOption exercise41,150292,855Form 4
2025-06-02Sepp-Lorenzino LauradirectorAward / grant113,246113,246Form 4
2025-06-02Long Alison SdirectorAward / grant56,623105,843Form 4
2025-06-02Long Alison SdirectorAward / grant113,246113,246Form 4
2025-06-02Donenberg Phillip B.directorAward / grant56,623219,954Form 4
2025-06-02Donenberg Phillip B.directorAward / grant113,246113,246Form 4
2025-06-02Sepp-Lorenzino LauradirectorAward / grant56,623105,843Form 4
2025-06-02Stalfort John A IIIdirectorAward / grant113,246113,246Form 4
2025-06-02Stalfort John A IIIdirectorAward / grant56,6231,155,224Form 4
2025-03-11Alam KamranofficerWithheld for tax29,8431,242,094Form 4
2025-01-02Nagendran SukumardirectorAward / grant324,500324,500Form 4
2025-01-02Nolan Sean P.directorAward / grant892,500892,500Form 4
2025-01-02Alam KamranofficerAward / grant431,0001,271,937Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.