TSEMTower Semiconductor Ltd.Technology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $202.20 · now $202.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TSEM has typically landed between $167.40 and $255.28 — a range of −17.2% to +26.2% from the issuance price $202.20.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($202.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TSEM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $202.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$167.4worst · -17.2%$255.28best · +26.2%
  • now $202.2 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $206.75 (+2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $191.6–$221.89
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $167.4–$255.28
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-01−59.6%−59.6%+0.0%
2008-09-30−56.5%−56.5%+0.0%
2008-10-02−54.7%−56.3%+2.1%
3 best
2009-07-20+195.6%+0.0%+197.8%
2009-07-10+185.7%+0.0%+185.7%
2009-07-15+185.1%−4.3%+185.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+3.6%
n=20
Feb
50%
+3.9%
n=20
Mar
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.7%
n=20
May
50%
+1.3%
n=20
Jun
40%
−1.9%
n=20
Jul
60%
+3.9%
n=20
Aug
45%
+2.5%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.5%
n=20
Oct
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Nov
80%
+7.2%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$317$462026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $50K — Chelouche Yoav2026-08-11: 10 insider sales, $25.9M — Ellwanger Russell Craig …2026-08-10: 17 insider sales, $19.7M — Ellwanger Russell Craig …2026-07-13: 10 insider sales, $14.4M — Ellwanger Russell Craig …2026-07: 10 open-market sales, $14.4M2026-08: 27 open-market sales, $45.6M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $50K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Chelouche Yoav — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellwanger Russell Craig — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Chelouche YoavdirectorSale232 @ $215.06$50K−0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open33,734Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale35,208 @ $248.78$8.8M−6.0% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open550,522Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale23,028 @ $248.08$5.7M−3.8% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open585,730Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale15,816 @ $249.66$3.9M−2.9% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open534,706Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale11,624 @ $245.78$2.9M−1.9% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open613,823Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale5,065 @ $246.74$1.2M−0.8% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open608,758Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale3,331 @ $250.90$836K−0.6% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open531,375Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale3,060 @ $243.32$745K−0.5% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open627,954Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale2,489 @ $253.92$632K−0.5% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open526,788Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale2,507 @ $244.69$613K−0.4% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open625,447Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale2,098 @ $252.74$530K−0.4% of holding−15.0%not yet — horizon still open529,277Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale9,720 @ $256.56$2.5M−1.5% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open654,040Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale9,022 @ $253.53$2.3M−1.3% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open674,219Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale7,343 @ $254.15$1.9M−1.1% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open666,876Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale6,486 @ $258.47$1.7M−1.0% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open642,147Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale6,474 @ $251.04$1.6M−0.9% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open686,582Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale5,407 @ $257.27$1.4M−0.8% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open648,633Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale5,316 @ $261.03$1.4M−0.8% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open634,312Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale5,559 @ $248.94$1.4M−0.8% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open694,179Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale5,498 @ $248.02$1.4M−0.8% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open699,738Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale3,341 @ $252.07$842K−0.5% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open683,241Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale3,116 @ $255.24$795K−0.5% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open663,760Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale2,519 @ $259.94$655K−0.4% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open639,628Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale2,062 @ $246.71$509K−0.3% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open705,236Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale1,827 @ $263.78$482K−0.3% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open631,014Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale1,471 @ $262.16$386K−0.2% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open632,841Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale1,123 @ $250.05$281K−0.2% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open693,056Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale1,025 @ $245.93$252K−0.1% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open707,298Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale17,173 @ $211.95$3.6M−2.2% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open747,215Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale10,899 @ $210.82$2.3M−1.4% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open764,388Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale9,878 @ $213.83$2.1M−1.3% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open727,540Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale9,797 @ $212.80$2.1M−1.3% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open737,418Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale4,936 @ $219.82$1.1M−0.7% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open717,461Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale4,772 @ $220.88$1.1M−0.7% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open712,689Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale3,025 @ $217.93$659K−0.4% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open724,515Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale2,510 @ $234.71$589K−0.4% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open708,323Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale2,118 @ $219.01$464K−0.3% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open722,397Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerSale1,856 @ $222.48$413K−0.3% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open710,833Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

10 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02Avner IrisdirectorAward / grant81421,223Form 4
2026-07-02Seward Carolin TdirectorAward / grant8144,996Form 4
2026-07-02Vakrat Wolkin MichaldirectorAward / grant81417,575Form 4
2026-07-02Kaufman KalmandirectorAward / grant81410,583Form 4
2026-07-02Hasson AvidirectorAward / grant81420,270Form 4
2026-07-02Gross Dana RebeccadirectorAward / grant8149,916Form 4
2026-07-02Elstein AmirdirectorAward / grant1,222126,556Form 4
2026-07-02Ellwanger Russell CraigofficerAward / grant22,918775,287Form 4
2026-07-02Chelouche YoavdirectorAward / grant81433,966Form 4
2026-07-02Ben Moshe SagidirectorAward / grant8149,916Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.