Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.78 · now $32.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TSCO has typically landed between $29.05 and $36.33 — a range of −11.4% to +10.8% from the issuance price $32.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TSCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.92 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.38–$34.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.05–$36.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-04-14 | −33.7% | −33.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | −32.8% | −32.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-10 | −32.8% | −32.8% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-07-10 | +50.9% | +0.0% | +50.9% |
| 2008-07-14 | +49.1% | +0.0% | +50.0% |
| 2008-07-11 | +48.7% | −0.9% | +48.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$16.3B
market cap
$1.92
EPS (TTM)
16.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$15.5B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$740M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr42.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.30
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$38.08
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$45.74
- Analyst target · range $28.00–$51.00$36.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$32.78
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Mar
68%
+3.2%
n=19
Apr
68%
+1.4%
n=19
May
42%
−1.1%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.8%
n=19
Aug
58%
+2.4%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
44%
+1.7%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
44%
+0.8%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Lawton III Harry A | director | Purchase | 12,945 @ $32.20 | $417K | +487.6% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Lawton III Harry A | director | Purchase | 2,655 @ $31.90 | $85K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | MORRIS EDNA | director | Purchase | 1,560 @ $32.44 | $51K | +0.6% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 279,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Hawaux Andre J | director | Purchase | 3,150 @ $31.83 | $100K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Yankee Colin | officer | Sale | 5,695 @ $55.33 | $315K | −11.1% of holding | −11.6% | −50.1% | 45,515 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Yankee Colin | officer | Sale | 4,694 @ $55.37 | $260K | −9.2% of holding | −11.6% | −50.1% | 46,296 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Yankee Colin | officer | Sale | 781 @ $55.38 | $43K | −1.7% of holding | −11.6% | −50.1% | 45,515 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Mills Robert D | director | Sale | 62,950 @ $54.12 | $3.4M | −33.9% of holding | −8.7% | −45.8% | 122,834 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Estep Jonathan S | director | Sale | 59,745 @ $54.03 | $3.2M | −42.5% of holding | −8.7% | −45.8% | 80,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Barton Kurt D | officer | Sale | 1,884 @ $53.81 | $101K | −3.5% of holding | −6.9% | −44.0% | 52,562 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Barton Kurt D | officer | Sale | 1,929 @ $53.94 | $104K | −4.1% of holding | −7.1% | −49.5% | 44,736 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Lawton III Harry A | director | Sale | 84,670 @ $53.16 | $4.5M | −12.2% of holding | −3.9% | −49.0% | 606,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Kersey Melissa | director | Sale | 6,313 @ $59.78 | $377K | −15.6% of holding | −0.1% | −14.4% | 34,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Weikel Mark J | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $59.92 | $479K | −15.8% of holding | −2.1% | −16.5% | 42,478 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Yankee Colin | officer | Sale | 6,080 @ $58.40 | $355K | −13.0% of holding | +5.3% | −13.1% | 40,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Yankee Colin | officer | Sale | 600 @ $58.41 | $35K | −1.5% of holding | +5.3% | −13.1% | 40,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Barton Kurt D | officer | Sale | 90,000 @ $63.96 | $5.8M | −65.4% of holding | +2.1% | −16.4% | 47,715 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | McKee Noni Ellison | officer | Sale | 5,200 @ $63.96 | $333K | −15.4% of holding | +2.1% | −16.4% | 28,639 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Jackson Denise L | director | Sale | 1,165 @ $58.50 | $68K | −3.6% of holding | +2.0% | −18.7% | 31,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Jackson Denise L | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $58.00 | $58K | −3.0% of holding | +1.4% | −20.6% | 32,288 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Jackson Denise L | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $57.50 | $58K | −2.9% of holding | +1.4% | −20.6% | 33,288 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Jackson Denise L | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $57.00 | $57K | −2.8% of holding | +3.6% | −23.2% | 34,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Estep Jonathan S | director | Sale | 35,825 @ $56.00 | $2.0M | −32.4% of holding | +4.1% | −22.9% | 74,605 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Jackson Denise L | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $56.00 | $112K | −5.4% of holding | +4.1% | −22.9% | 35,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Jackson Denise L | director | Sale | 1,630 @ $55.50 | $90K | −4.2% of holding | +4.1% | −22.9% | 37,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Jackson Denise L | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $56.50 | $57K | −2.5% of holding | +4.1% | −22.9% | 38,918 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Jackson Denise L | director | Sale | 1,550 @ $55.00 | $85K | −3.7% of holding | +4.3% | −19.1% | 39,918 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | Estep Jonathan S | director | Sale | 56,630 @ $53.00 | $3.0M | −43.2% of holding | +5.4% | −17.5% | 74,605 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Rubin Matthew L. | officer | Sale | 2,810 @ $51.76 | $145K | −8.6% of holding | −0.8% | −7.1% | 29,722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Rubin Matthew L. | officer | Sale | 3,850 @ $57.69 | $222K | −10.8% of holding | −1.4% | +1.8% | 31,787 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Barton Kurt D | officer | Sale | 12,146 @ $56.00 | $680K | −20.3% of holding | +0.6% | +0.9% | 47,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Yankee Colin | officer | Sale | 24,602 @ $54.15 | $1.3M | −42.2% of holding | +3.3% | +2.4% | 33,645 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Kersey Melissa | director | Sale | 8,709 @ $53.17 | $463K | −19.9% of holding | +15.8% | +7.0% | 34,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Kersey Melissa | director | Sale | 591 @ $53.16 | $31K | −1.3% of holding | +15.8% | +7.0% | 43,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Lawton III Harry A | director | Sale | 88,095 @ $54.59 | $4.8M | −15.3% of holding | +3.6% | +4.8% | 488,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
178 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ham Margaret M | director | Code L | 85 | 19,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ledbetter Samuel Craig | officer | Withheld for tax | 28 | 8,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Estep Jonathan S | director | Award / grant | 3,062 | 3,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Ordus John P | officer | Award / grant | 6,124 | 6,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Estep Jonathan S | director | Award / grant | 794 | 80,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Ordus John P | officer | Award / grant | 1,588 | 97,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Ledbetter Samuel Craig | officer | Award / grant | 9,214 | 9,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | DAHL AMY E | director | Award / grant | 13,626 | 13,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Ledbetter Samuel Craig | officer | Award / grant | 2,404 | 8,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Ham Margaret M | director | Award / grant | 415 | 19,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Krishnan Ramkumar | director | Award / grant | 830 | 68,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ham Margaret M | director | Code L | 98 | 19,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MORRIS EDNA | director | Award / grant | 9,174 | 14,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Brown Joy | director | Award / grant | 5,712 | 21,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Jackson Denise L | director | Award / grant | 5,712 | 36,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawaux Andre J | director | Award / grant | 5,712 | 15,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Syngal Sonia | director | Award / grant | 5,712 | 6,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Weikel Mark J | director | Award / grant | 5,712 | 48,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Cardenas Ricardo | director | Award / grant | 5,712 | 40,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Krishnan Ramkumar | director | Award / grant | 5,712 | 67,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Ham Margaret M | director | Award / grant | 5,712 | 19,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Krishnan Ramkumar | director | Award / grant | 579 | 61,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ham Margaret M | director | Award / grant | 290 | 13,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Yankee Colin | officer | Option exercise | 5,695 | 51,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Yankee Colin | officer | Option exercise | 5,475 | 50,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Yankee Colin | officer | Option exercise | 5,695 | 5,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Yankee Colin | officer | Option exercise | 5,475 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Lawton III Harry A | director | Withheld for tax | 5,724 | 635,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Barton Kurt D | officer | Withheld for tax | 967 | 51,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mills Robert D | director | Withheld for tax | 866 | 121,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Estep Jonathan S | director | Withheld for tax | 804 | 80,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Ordus John P | officer | Withheld for tax | 680 | 96,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Yankee Colin | officer | Withheld for tax | 588 | 45,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kersey Melissa | director | Withheld for tax | 557 | 37,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gardiner Kimberley S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 315 | 18,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Estep Jonathan S | director | Option exercise | 59,745 | 140,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Mills Robert D | director | Option exercise | 27,540 | 185,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Mills Robert D | director | Option exercise | 35,410 | 158,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Mills Robert D | director | Option exercise | 27,540 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Estep Jonathan S | director | Option exercise | 59,745 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-22 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-28 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-26 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-18 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-05-19 | 2026-04-09 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.