TSBKTimberland Bancorp, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.22 · now $46.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TSBK has typically landed between $42.23 and $51.72 — a range of −8.6% to +11.9% from the issuance price $46.22.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TSBK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$42.23worst · -8.6%$51.72best · +11.9%
  • now $46.22 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $46.74 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $44.74–$48.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $42.23–$51.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-22−63.4%−63.4%+2.8%
2009-01-23−53.4%−63.5%+2.5%
2009-01-21−51.7%−51.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-02-23+122.6%+0.0%+122.6%
2009-02-24+77.8%+0.0%+77.8%
2009-03-04+55.5%+0.0%+57.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+3.8%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.0%
n=20
Mar
45%
−1.1%
n=20
Apr
65%
+2.8%
n=20
May
35%
−2.7%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.6%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.1%
n=20
Aug
65%
+1.6%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Oct
40%
−0.8%
n=20
Nov
75%
+5.8%
n=20
Dec
55%
−0.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$47$302026-08-18: 2 insider sales, $93K — DRUGGE ROBERT A, Antich Breanne D2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $136K — BRYDON DEAN J2026-08-01: 1 insider sale, $12K — Antich Breanne D2026-07-31: 1 insider sale, $134K — Seath Matthew Douglas2026-06-23: 1 insider sale, $44K — SMITH DAVID ALAN2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $32K — Antich Breanne D2026-02-05: 2 insider sales, $98K — Fischer Jonathan Arthur, BASICH MARCI A2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $15K — BASICH MARCI A2026-02-02: 2 insider sales, $322K — BASICH MARCI A, DeBord Matthew J2026-01-30: 1 insider sale, $63K — CLINTON ANDREA M2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $195K — DeBord Matthew J2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $37K — STONEY MICHAEL JOHN2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $228K — Antich Breanne D2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $5K — SMITH DAVID ALAN2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $233K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $232K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $63K2026-02: 6 open-market sales, $467K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $44K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $134K2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $241K↑ buys↓ salesdirector DRUGGE ROBERT A — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed same dayofficer Antich Breanne D — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed same daydirector BRYDON DEAN J — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Antich Breanne D — Sale on 2026-08-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Seath Matthew Douglas — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SMITH DAVID ALAN — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Antich Breanne D — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Fischer Jonathan Arthur — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer BASICH MARCI A — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer BASICH MARCI A — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer BASICH MARCI A — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DeBord Matthew J — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed same daydirector CLINTON ANDREA M — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer DeBord Matthew J — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STONEY MICHAEL JOHN — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed same dayofficer Antich Breanne D — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMITH DAVID ALAN — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18DRUGGE ROBERT AdirectorSale2,000 @ $45.87$92K−5.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open38,245Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-18Antich Breanne DofficerSale30 @ $46.41$1K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,890Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03BRYDON DEAN JdirectorSale3,000 @ $45.24$136K−7.7% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open35,921Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-01Antich Breanne DofficerSale269 @ $45.44$12K−6.4% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open3,920Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-31Seath Matthew DouglasofficerSale3,000 @ $44.75$134K−48.7% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open3,155Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-23SMITH DAVID ALANdirectorSale1,000 @ $43.90$44K−5.1% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open18,468Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Antich Breanne DofficerSale800 @ $40.05$32K−16.0% of holding+0.1%+3.5%4,189Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-05Fischer Jonathan ArthurofficerSale2,000 @ $39.50$79K−23.4% of holding−2.2%+1.1%6,550Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05BASICH MARCI AofficerSale477 @ $39.50$19K−9.0% of holding−2.2%+1.1%4,800Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03BASICH MARCI AofficerSale376 @ $39.50$15K−7.3% of holding+0.3%+3.9%4,800Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02BASICH MARCI AofficerSale4,347 @ $39.52$172K−47.5% of holding+2.1%+5.4%4,800Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02DeBord Matthew JofficerSale3,805 @ $39.53$150K−40.0% of holding+2.1%+5.4%5,700Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-30CLINTON ANDREA MdirectorSale1,600 @ $39.19$63K−15.2% of holding+1.7%+8.4%8,910Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-15DeBord Matthew JofficerSale5,195 @ $37.51$195K−47.7% of holding−3.6%+4.3%5,700Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-11STONEY MICHAEL JOHNdirectorSale1,000 @ $36.99$37K−10.0% of holding−5.9%+4.2%9,040Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-18Antich Breanne DofficerSale7,000 @ $32.55$228K−74.9% of holding+7.2%+14.7%2,348Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13SMITH DAVID ALANdirectorSale164 @ $33.50$5K−0.9% of holding+7.0%+12.4%17,768Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-29Van Cise ToddofficerSale7,000 @ $32.65$229K−73.7% of holding+2.9%+6.0%2,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-29SMITH DAVID ALANdirectorSale836 @ $33.50$28K−4.5% of holding+2.9%+6.0%17,768Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-25CLINTON ANDREA MdirectorSale3,800 @ $32.98$125K−31.6% of holding+0.3%+3.5%8,210Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-25BASICH MARCI AofficerSale300 @ $33.25$10K−9.7% of holding+0.3%+3.5%2,800Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-16Antich Breanne DofficerSale152 @ $30.31$5K−6.1% of holding+0.4%+11.1%2,348Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-28BASICH MARCI AofficerSale2,200 @ $30.00$66K−41.5% of holding−6.8%−18.9%3,100Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

120 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18DRUGGE ROBERT AdirectorOption exercise2,00040,245Form 4
2026-08-18DRUGGE ROBERT AdirectorOption exercise2,00012,100Form 4
2026-08-03BRYDON DEAN JdirectorOption exercise2,00037,921Form 4
2026-08-03BRYDON DEAN JdirectorOption exercise1,00038,921Form 4
2026-08-03BRYDON DEAN JdirectorOption exercise1,00011,600Form 4
2026-08-03BRYDON DEAN JdirectorOption exercise2,00012,600Form 4
2026-07-31Seath Matthew DouglasofficerOption exercise8003,955Form 4
2026-07-31Seath Matthew DouglasofficerOption exercise8005,555Form 4
2026-07-31Seath Matthew DouglasofficerOption exercise8004,755Form 4
2026-07-31Seath Matthew DouglasofficerOption exercise6006,155Form 4
2026-07-31Seath Matthew DouglasofficerOption exercise600600Form 4
2026-07-31Seath Matthew DouglasofficerOption exercise8002,000Form 4
2026-07-31Seath Matthew DouglasofficerOption exercise8002,800Form 4
2026-07-31Seath Matthew DouglasofficerOption exercise8001,200Form 4
2026-06-23SMITH DAVID ALANdirectorOption exercise1,00019,468Form 4
2026-06-23SMITH DAVID ALANdirectorOption exercise1,0006,000Form 4
2026-02-06Antich Breanne DofficerOption exercise4004,589Form 4
2026-02-06Antich Breanne DofficerOption exercise4004,989Form 4
2026-02-06Antich Breanne DofficerOption exercise4002,900Form 4
2026-02-06Antich Breanne DofficerOption exercise4003,300Form 4
2026-02-05Fischer Jonathan ArthurofficerOption exercise2,0008,550Form 4
2026-02-05BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise4775,277Form 4
2026-02-05Fischer Jonathan ArthurofficerOption exercise2,00012,600Form 4
2026-02-05BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise4772,800Form 4
2026-02-03BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise3765,176Form 4
2026-02-03BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise3763,277Form 4
2026-02-02BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise2,0006,800Form 4
2026-02-02BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise1,6008,400Form 4
2026-02-02DeBord Matthew JofficerOption exercise1,6008,305Form 4
2026-02-02DeBord Matthew JofficerOption exercise1,2009,505Form 4
2026-02-02BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise7479,147Form 4
2026-02-02DeBord Matthew JofficerOption exercise1,0056,705Form 4
2026-02-02DeBord Matthew JofficerOption exercise1,2001,200Form 4
2026-02-02BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise2,0006,000Form 4
2026-02-02BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise7473,653Form 4
2026-02-02BASICH MARCI AofficerOption exercise1,6004,400Form 4
2026-02-02DeBord Matthew JofficerOption exercise1,0054,000Form 4
2026-02-02DeBord Matthew JofficerOption exercise1,6002,400Form 4
2026-01-30CLINTON ANDREA MdirectorOption exercise8009,910Form 4
2026-01-30CLINTON ANDREA MdirectorOption exercise60010,510Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.