Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.01 · now $15.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRVI has typically landed between $11.24 and $23.13 — a range of −25.1% to +54.1% from the issuance price $15.01.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,829 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TRVI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.01 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.3 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.39–$17.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.24–$23.13
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-28 | −67.1% | −67.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-27 | −58.2% | −58.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −57.1% | −57.1% | +6.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-02-22 | +367.1% | −2.3% | +373.5% |
| 2022-02-18 | +345.1% | −8.2% | +345.1% |
| 2022-02-24 | +328.6% | +0.0% | +355.1% |
1,829 overlapping windows · 2019-05-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-25 | SCIASCIA THOMAS | officer | Sale | 2,631 @ $6.60 | $17K | −1.2% of holding | +1.1% | +12.6% | 221,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Sale | 5,263 @ $6.58 | $35K | −2.4% of holding | +0.3% | +13.2% | 213,313 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Simon Farrell | director | Sale | 76,963 @ $6.73 | $518K | −48.6% of holding | −1.5% | +22.0% | 81,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Simon Farrell | director | Sale | 4,350 @ $7.15 | $31K | −5.4% of holding | −1.5% | +22.0% | 76,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
50 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Colangelo Dominick | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Heffernan Michael Thomas | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Mathers Edward T | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Meeker David P | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | VANLENT ANNE | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | SCIASCIA THOMAS | officer | Award / grant | 85,000 | 85,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Galletta Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Cassella James V | officer | Award / grant | 215,000 | 215,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Award / grant | 675,000 | 675,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Simon Farrell | director | Award / grant | 160,000 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | HASTINGS DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 375,000 | 375,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | Galletta Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 4,225 | 26,095 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | Galletta Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 4,225 | 15,775 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Heffernan Michael Thomas | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Meeker David P | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | VANLENT ANNE | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Colangelo Dominick | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Mathers Edward T | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-31 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Award / grant | 102,000 | 156,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-31 | Galletta Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 8,550 | 13,110 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-31 | SCIASCIA THOMAS | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 92,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-31 | Delfini Lisa | officer | Award / grant | 72,000 | 110,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-31 | Simon Farrell | director | Award / grant | 72,000 | 110,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-25 | SCIASCIA THOMAS | officer | Option exercise | 2,631 | 224,004 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-25 | SCIASCIA THOMAS | officer | Option exercise | 2,631 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-21 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Option exercise | 5,263 | 218,576 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-21 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Option exercise | 5,263 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Simon Farrell | director | Option exercise | 63,813 | 126,963 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Simon Farrell | director | Option exercise | 17,500 | 63,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Simon Farrell | director | Option exercise | 31,250 | 158,213 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Simon Farrell | director | Option exercise | 17,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Simon Farrell | director | Award / grant | 38,400 | 38,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Award / grant | 54,400 | 54,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Galletta Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 4,560 | 4,560 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Simon Farrell | director | Option exercise | 63,813 | 11,187 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Simon Farrell | director | Option exercise | 31,250 | 18,750 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | SCIASCIA THOMAS | officer | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Delfini Lisa | officer | Award / grant | 38,400 | 38,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Delfini Lisa | officer | Award / grant | 225,500 | 225,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Award / grant | 811,000 | 811,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.