TRUP · TickerCove

TRUPTrupanion, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.63 · now $25.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRUP has typically landed between $19.34 and $33.69 — a range of −24.5% to +31.5% from the issuance price $25.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,038 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-07-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$25.63 · 18% of range

$21.46 low$45.19 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.3%

typical move · IQR 22.4%

−24.5%worst (p90)+31.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TRUP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $25.63 (+0.0%)
typical $25.05 (-2.3%)
middle 50% $22.18–$27.91
90% range $19.34–$33.69

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,038 windows spanning 2014-07-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-04-14	−51.0%	−51.0%	+0.0%
2023-04-13	−49.9%	−49.9%	+0.0%
2023-04-12	−48.0%	−48.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-07-08	+62.2%	−0.7%	+62.2%
2016-04-08	+58.0%	+0.0%	+58.0%
2019-10-23	+54.7%	−0.6%	+55.5%

3,038 overlapping windows · 2014-07-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

42%

−3.1%

n=12

Feb

33%

−4.6%

n=12

Mar

50%

−3.6%

n=12

Apr

42%

−2.7%

n=12

May

75%

+8.9%

n=12

Jun

58%

+9.7%

n=12

Jul

58%

+8.4%

n=12

Aug

31%

−0.7%

n=13

Sep

38%

−0.2%

n=13

Oct

25%

−5.4%

n=12

Nov

75%

+13.6%

n=12

Dec

58%

+4.2%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Tooth Margaret	director	Sale	1,000 @ $25.00	$25K	−0.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	185,952	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-28	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Sale	3,604 @ $29.70	$107K	−9.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	33,742	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-26	Qureshi Fawwad	officer	Sale	6,111 @ $30.01	$183K	−59.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	4,230	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-25	Tooth Margaret	director	Sale	491 @ $31.84	$16K	−0.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	186,952	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Tooth Margaret	director	Sale	978 @ $29.05	$28K	−0.6% of holding	−16.4%	not yet — horizon still open	175,401	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Sale	431 @ $25.08	$11K	−1.3% of holding	+15.0%	not yet — horizon still open	32,203	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Sale	431 @ $25.35	$11K	−1.3% of holding	+3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	32,634	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05	WEINRAUCH STEVE	officer	Sale	6,674 @ $22.00	$147K	−7.9% of holding	+18.9%	not yet — horizon still open	78,062	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Sale	3,603 @ $21.69	$78K	−9.8% of holding	+16.5%	not yet — horizon still open	33,065	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-27	Qureshi Fawwad	officer	Sale	6,007 @ $22.17	$133K	−72.7% of holding	+19.5%	not yet — horizon still open	2,251	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-27	Qureshi Fawwad	officer	Sale	170 @ $22.63	$4K	−7.6% of holding	+19.5%	not yet — horizon still open	2,081	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-25	Tooth Margaret	director	Sale	491 @ $21.86	$11K	−0.3% of holding	+10.1%	not yet — horizon still open	176,379	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

288 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-25	Qureshi Fawwad	officer	Withheld for tax	1,497	10,341	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Withheld for tax	180	14,424	Form 4
2026-08-25	WHEELER SIMON	officer	Withheld for tax	161	25,327	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Withheld for tax	125	14,243	Form 4
2026-08-25	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Withheld for tax	110	37,311	Form 4
2026-08-25	WEINRAUCH STEVE	officer	Withheld for tax	86	81,740	Form 4
2026-08-25	BEARMAN ASHER	officer	Withheld for tax	40	74,013	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Withheld for tax	16	14,258	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Withheld for tax	14	14,437	Form 4
2026-08-25	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Withheld for tax	10	37,346	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Withheld for tax	9	14,266	Form 4
2026-08-25	WEINRAUCH STEVE	officer	Withheld for tax	9	81,472	Form 4
2026-08-25	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Withheld for tax	6	36,969	Form 4
2026-08-25	WHEELER SIMON	officer	Option exercise	322	1,286	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	17	52	Form 4
2026-08-25	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Option exercise	45	180	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	31	62	Form 4
2026-08-25	BEARMAN ASHER	officer	Option exercise	125	500	Form 4
2026-08-25	WEINRAUCH STEVE	officer	Option exercise	41	81	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	27	109	Form 4
2026-08-25	WEINRAUCH STEVE	officer	Option exercise	354	1,414	Form 4
2026-08-25	Qureshi Fawwad	officer	Option exercise	3,750	18,750	Form 4
2026-08-25	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Option exercise	452	1,806	Form 4
2026-08-25	POWELL BRADLEY S	director	Option exercise	1,640	4,923	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	234	0	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	338	1,353	Form 4
2026-08-25	Tooth Margaret	director	Option exercise	1,250	5,000	Form 4
2026-08-25	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Option exercise	28	87	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	27	14,451	Form 4
2026-08-25	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Option exercise	452	37,421	Form 4
2026-08-25	WEINRAUCH STEVE	officer	Option exercise	41	81,481	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	338	14,604	Form 4
2026-08-25	WHEELER SIMON	officer	Option exercise	322	25,488	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	17	14,275	Form 4
2026-08-25	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Option exercise	45	37,356	Form 4
2026-08-25	GALLAGHER JOHN R	officer	Option exercise	28	36,975	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	338	14,604	Form 4
2026-08-25	MCGIBNEY BRENNA	officer	Option exercise	31	14,274	Form 4
2026-08-25	WEINRAUCH STEVE	officer	Option exercise	354	81,826	Form 4
2026-08-25	Qureshi Fawwad	officer	Option exercise	3,750	11,838	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i