Issued 2026-09-16 at $74.66 · now $74.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRU has typically landed between $62.53 and $86.13 — a range of −16.3% to +15.4% from the issuance price $74.66.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,802 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-06-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($74.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TRU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $74.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $74.66 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $74.87 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $69.94–$79.8
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $62.53–$86.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,802 windows spanning 2015-06-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −45.2% | −45.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −42.0% | −43.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −41.5% | −41.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-01 | +37.5% | +0.0% | +37.5% |
| 2023-10-30 | +36.0% | +0.0% | +38.7% |
| 2023-10-27 | +34.8% | −0.7% | +37.8% |
2,802 overlapping windows · 2015-06-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
64%
+1.4%
n=11
Feb
36%
+0.4%
n=11
Mar
55%
−1.6%
n=11
Apr
73%
+5.1%
n=11
May
73%
+3.5%
n=11
Jun
82%
+2.5%
n=11
Jul
75%
+5.8%
n=12
Aug
75%
+1.3%
n=12
Sep
17%
−4.6%
n=12
Oct
36%
−4.8%
n=11
Nov
64%
+5.5%
n=11
Dec
55%
+1.1%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Abdelsadek Mohamed | officer | Sale | 1,250 @ $79.07 | $99K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Achanta Venkat | officer | Sale | 23,287 @ $77.00 | $1.8M | −10.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 196,912 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $84.42 | $84K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $84.42 | $84K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 55,764 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Williams Jennifer A. | officer | Sale | 1,070 @ $84.57 | $90K | −19.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,327 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Zuiker Alicia Brooke | officer | Sale | 8,673 @ $78.49 | $681K | −17.2% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $79.96 | $80K | −1.1% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,906 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 950 @ $79.96 | $76K | −1.5% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,849 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Abdelsadek Mohamed | officer | Sale | 23,495 @ $85.00 | $2.0M | −29.1% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,182 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Williams Jennifer A. | officer | Sale | 972 @ $80.00 | $78K | −14.3% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $72.64 | $726K | −10.0% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,906 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $72.64 | $73K | −1.5% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $70.73 | $354K | −4.8% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,906 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $70.73 | $71K | −1.5% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | RUSSELL HEATHER J | officer | Sale | 6,683 @ $71.87 | $480K | −12.9% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,248 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $71.93 | $360K | −5.6% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,711 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 500 @ $71.93 | $36K | −0.9% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,263 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | RUSSELL HEATHER J | officer | Sale | 1,983 @ $80.00 | $159K | −4.8% of holding | −16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $70.00 | $350K | −5.3% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,711 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 500 @ $69.20 | $35K | −0.9% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,763 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | RUSSELL HEATHER J | officer | Sale | 4,067 @ $77.37 | $315K | −9.0% of holding | −9.4% | −11.7% | 41,063 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Williams Jennifer A. | officer | Sale | 1,679 @ $80.00 | $134K | −18.9% of holding | −9.8% | −6.8% | 7,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $76.64 | $383K | −5.0% of holding | −6.7% | −3.7% | 94,711 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 500 @ $76.64 | $38K | −0.9% of holding | −6.7% | −3.7% | 56,263 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 500 @ $78.79 | $39K | −1.6% of holding | +2.0% | −5.3% | 31,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $85.71 | $86K | −1.6% of holding | −19.8% | −15.2% | 61,592 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 500 @ $85.71 | $43K | −1.5% of holding | −19.8% | −15.2% | 32,225 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Chambers Tiffani | officer | Sale | 4,318 @ $86.00 | $371K | −7.9% of holding | −4.2% | −35.5% | 50,427 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Sale | 500 @ $81.07 | $41K | −1.5% of holding | −0.4% | −29.7% | 32,652 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $84.04 | $84K | −1.6% of holding | +1.6% | −28.5% | 62,592 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $80.47 | $80K | −1.5% of holding | +2.3% | −21.1% | 63,592 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $83.19 | $83K | −1.5% of holding | −4.5% | −14.1% | 64,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | RUSSELL HEATHER J | officer | Sale | 5,337 @ $90.01 | $480K | −18.8% of holding | −18.9% | −20.6% | 23,011 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $86.12 | $86K | −1.5% of holding | −9.6% | −17.7% | 65,592 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Williams Jennifer A. | officer | Sale | 755 @ $88.46 | $67K | −11.7% of holding | −8.8% | −16.2% | 5,691 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Williams Jennifer A. | officer | Sale | 245 @ $89.22 | $22K | −3.5% of holding | −7.6% | −19.3% | 6,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $91.21 | $91K | −1.3% of holding | +1.9% | −26.2% | 73,393 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Williams Jennifer A. | officer | Sale | 972 @ $92.89 | $90K | −12.0% of holding | −9.9% | −37.5% | 7,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $84.91 | $85K | −1.3% of holding | +1.5% | −16.0% | 75,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $82.96 | $83K | −1.3% of holding | −4.6% | −26.5% | 76,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $83.31 | $83K | −1.3% of holding | +0.0% | −21.5% | 77,393 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Martin Timothy J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $88.64 | $222K | −4.9% of holding | −7.1% | −10.3% | 48,510 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Achanta Venkat | officer | Sale | 13,163 @ $91.98 | $1.2M | −11.2% of holding | −3.0% | −13.8% | 104,295 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $91.98 | $92K | −1.3% of holding | −3.0% | −13.8% | 78,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Achanta Venkat | officer | Sale | 1,821 @ $95.74 | $174K | −1.7% of holding | −6.4% | −15.2% | 105,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Williams Jennifer A. | officer | Sale | 200 @ $95.74 | $19K | −2.7% of holding | −6.4% | −15.2% | 7,186 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $95.95 | $96K | −1.7% of holding | −3.8% | −10.8% | 58,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $93.60 | $94K | −1.7% of holding | +3.4% | −5.5% | 59,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
123 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Ruebensaal Clayton F. | officer | Award / grant | 5,976 | 5,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Achanta Venkat | officer | Award / grant | 71,710 | 220,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Cartwright Christopher A | director | Withheld for tax | 29,262 | 535,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Achanta Venkat | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,252 | 148,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Withheld for tax | 8,018 | 80,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Cello Todd M | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,896 | 141,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,085 | 56,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | RUSSELL HEATHER J | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,849 | 40,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Abdelsadek Mohamed | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,501 | 54,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Chambers Tiffani | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,686 | 51,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Zuiker Alicia Brooke | officer | Withheld for tax | 987 | 40,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Williams Jennifer A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 446 | 5,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Zuiker Alicia Brooke | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,899 | 50,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Williams Jennifer A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 404 | 6,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Cartwright Christopher A | director | Withheld for tax | 26,284 | 565,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Cello Todd M | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,253 | 149,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Achanta Venkat | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,213 | 156,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Withheld for tax | 16,063 | 104,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,350 | 66,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | RUSSELL HEATHER J | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,222 | 51,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Achanta Venkat | officer | Award / grant | 41,202 | 172,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MONAHAN THOMAS L | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 27,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | CLARK SUZANNE PATRICIA | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 25,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Singisetti Ravi Kumar | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 13,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | JOSEPH PAMELA A | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 42,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | FRADIN RUSSELL P | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 21,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | GOTTDIENER CHARLES E | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 13,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Award / grant | 36,258 | 120,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Cello Todd M | officer | Award / grant | 41,202 | 167,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | RUSSELL HEATHER J | officer | Award / grant | 23,073 | 62,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Skinner Todd C. | officer | Award / grant | 24,721 | 79,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Dia Hamidou | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 13,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chakraborty Sayan | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 3,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Yarkoni Charlotte | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 3,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Zukauckas Linda | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 15,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Cartwright Christopher A | director | Award / grant | 59,331 | 591,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Awad George M | director | Award / grant | 3,034 | 32,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Abdelsadek Mohamed | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,320 | 80,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chambers Tiffani | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,663 | 53,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cartwright Christopher A | director | Withheld for tax | 43,356 | 531,959 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.