TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.32 · now $7.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRTX has typically landed between $6.18 and $8.37 — a range of −15.6% to +14.3% from the issuance price $7.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,279 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-07-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TRTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.18worst · -15.6%$8.37best · +14.3%
  • now $7.32 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.35 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.94–$7.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.18–$8.37
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,279 windows spanning 2017-07-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-04−85.6%−85.6%+0.0%
2020-03-05−83.5%−85.3%+0.0%
2020-02-25−83.1%−83.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03+184.9%+0.0%+226.1%
2020-04-06+146.3%+0.0%+189.6%
2020-03-25+117.7%−15.6%+135.5%

2,279 overlapping windows · 2017-07-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+3.1%
n=9
Feb
44%
+1.3%
n=9
Mar
44%
−6.6%
n=9
Apr
44%
+4.0%
n=9
May
44%
+0.7%
n=9
Jun
89%
+5.9%
n=9
Jul
78%
+4.1%
n=9
Aug
50%
−1.2%
n=10
Sep
20%
−4.4%
n=10
Oct
67%
+0.7%
n=9
Nov
44%
+3.1%
n=9
Dec
56%
+1.1%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$7↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

61 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Gillmore MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,10998,699Form 4
2026-07-24Smith Michael BradleydirectorAward / grant1,10998,699Form 4
2026-07-24SILVERSTEIN WENDYdirectorAward / grant1,10998,699Form 4
2026-07-24Schuster TodddirectorAward / grant15263,978Form 4
2026-06-30Bouquard DougdirectorWithheld for tax223,5331,070,146Form 4
2026-06-30Coleman MatthewofficerWithheld for tax34,696326,961Form 4
2026-06-30Banyasz AvidirectorWithheld for tax20,539162,322Form 4
2026-06-30Fox Brandon CofficerWithheld for tax9,01187,577Form 4
2026-06-30Hong JuliedirectorWithheld for tax6,19535,330Form 4
2026-04-24Gillmore MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,19597,590Form 4
2026-04-24SILVERSTEIN WENDYdirectorAward / grant1,19597,590Form 4
2026-04-24Smith Michael BradleydirectorAward / grant1,19597,590Form 4
2026-04-24Schuster TodddirectorAward / grant16463,826Form 4
2026-01-23Smith Michael BradleydirectorAward / grant1,00796,395Form 4
2026-01-23Gillmore MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,00796,395Form 4
2026-01-23SILVERSTEIN WENDYdirectorAward / grant1,00796,395Form 4
2026-01-23Schuster TodddirectorAward / grant13863,662Form 4
2025-12-24Smith Michael BradleydirectorAward / grant13,01295,388Form 4
2025-12-24Fox Brandon CofficerAward / grant26,00096,588Form 4
2025-12-24Bouquard DougdirectorAward / grant429,7941,293,679Form 4
2025-12-24SILVERSTEIN WENDYdirectorAward / grant13,01295,388Form 4
2025-12-24Coleman MatthewofficerAward / grant56,597361,657Form 4
2025-12-24Banyasz AvidirectorAward / grant56,597182,861Form 4
2025-12-24Gillmore MichaeldirectorAward / grant13,01295,388Form 4
2025-12-24Goldthorpe Edward J.directorAward / grant2,1692,169Form 4
2025-12-24Hong JuliedirectorAward / grant13,01241,525Form 4
2025-12-24Schuster TodddirectorAward / grant13,01263,524Form 4
2025-10-24SILVERSTEIN WENDYdirectorAward / grant99882,376Form 4
2025-10-24Gillmore MichaeldirectorAward / grant99882,376Form 4
2025-10-24Smith Michael BradleydirectorAward / grant99882,376Form 4
2025-10-24Schuster TodddirectorAward / grant13750,512Form 4
2025-08-05TPG GP A, LLCotherOther acquisition4,693,9162,492,170Form 4
2025-07-25Gillmore MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,08881,378Form 4
2025-07-25Smith Michael BradleydirectorAward / grant1,08881,378Form 4
2025-07-25SILVERSTEIN WENDYdirectorAward / grant1,08881,378Form 4
2025-07-25Schuster TodddirectorAward / grant14950,375Form 4
2025-06-30Bouquard DougdirectorWithheld for tax164,114863,885Form 4
2025-06-30Foley RobertdirectorWithheld for tax58,231428,326Form 4
2025-06-30Coleman MatthewofficerWithheld for tax36,655305,060Form 4
2025-06-30Banyasz AvidirectorWithheld for tax14,135126,264Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.