TROX · TickerCove

TROXTronox Holdings plcBasic Materials · Chemicalsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.29 · now $4.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TROX has typically landed between $3.30 and $5.28 — a range of −23.0% to +23.1% from the issuance price $4.29.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,950 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-12-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.29 · 20% of range

$2.82 low$10.34 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.7%

typical move · IQR 19.8%

−23.0%worst (p90)+23.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TROX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.29 (+0.0%)
typical $4.17 (-2.7%)
middle 50% $3.75–$4.6
90% range $3.3–$5.28

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,950 windows spanning 2010-12-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−51.5%	−51.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−50.1%	−50.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−48.6%	−48.6%	+4.4%
3 best
2016-02-19	+97.4%	−3.9%	+109.9%
2016-02-02	+90.7%	−2.2%	+90.7%
2016-02-11	+90.5%	−0.5%	+120.3%

3,950 overlapping windows · 2010-12-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

56%

+4.7%

n=16

Feb

69%

+10.2%

n=16

Mar

63%

+4.1%

n=16

Apr

63%

+2.7%

n=16

May

44%

−5.7%

n=16

Jun

38%

−2.8%

n=16

Jul

44%

−0.3%

n=16

Aug

50%

+2.3%

n=16

Sep

38%

−9.0%

n=16

Oct

33%

+3.6%

n=15

Nov

47%

+6.3%

n=15

Dec

53%

−1.5%

n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-06	Romano John D	director	Sale	101,600 @ $6.59	$670K	−6.4% of holding	+44.3%	−40.6%	1,473,740	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06	Neuman Jeffrey N	officer	Sale	22,965 @ $6.59	$151K	−8.4% of holding	+44.3%	−40.6%	248,831	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06	Srivisal John	officer	Sale	19,461 @ $6.59	$128K	−6.5% of holding	+44.3%	−40.6%	279,677	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06	Turgeon Jean Francois	director	Sale	18,563 @ $6.60	$122K	−2.4% of holding	+44.3%	−40.6%	754,009	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06	Engle Jeffrey A.	officer	Sale	14,575 @ $6.60	$96K	−7.7% of holding	+44.3%	−40.6%	175,251	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06	Flood Jonathan	officer	Sale	8,008 @ $6.58	$53K	−7.9% of holding	+44.3%	−40.6%	92,861	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-05	Flood Jonathan	officer	Sale	7,000 @ $7.55	$53K	−6.5% of holding	+29.9%	−46.1%	100,869	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-12	Johnston Peter	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $3.21	$64K	+11.7% of holding	+42.9%	+139.9%	191,513	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07	Turgeon Jean Francois	director	Purchase	19,497 @ $3.22	$63K	+2.6% of holding	+39.4%	+128.3%	760,919	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07	Turgeon Jean Francois	director	Purchase	11,653 @ $3.20	$37K	+1.5% of holding	+39.4%	+128.3%	772,572	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07	Jones Stephen J	director	Purchase	8,000 @ $3.19	$25K	+18.6% of holding	+39.4%	+128.3%	51,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-06	Jones Stephen J	director	Purchase	7,000 @ $3.20	$22K	+19.4% of holding	+38.4%	+112.8%	43,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-05	Jones Stephen J	director	Purchase	6,000 @ $3.32	$20K	+20.0% of holding	+24.2%	+121.1%	36,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-01	Romano John D	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $3.09	$309K	+8.1% of holding	+20.9%	+80.4%	1,333,485	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-01	Srivisal John	officer	Purchase	37,000 @ $3.39	$125K	+18.5% of holding	+20.9%	+80.4%	237,283	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-01	Engle Jeffrey A.	officer	Purchase	12,600 @ $3.07	$39K	+9.4% of holding	+20.9%	+80.4%	146,926	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-07	Neuman Jeffrey N	officer	Purchase	10,266 @ $4.89	$50K	ownership Δ n/a	+15.4%	−53.9%	10,266	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-18	Jones Stephen J	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $7.17	$215K	ownership Δ n/a	−22.7%	−47.1%	30,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-29	Schwarz Keith	director	Award / grant	18,262	18,262	Form 4
2026-04-28	Khan Moazzam A.	director	Withheld for tax	16,166	48,327	Form 4
2026-04-28	Turgeon Jean Francois	director	Withheld for tax	14,538	739,471	Form 4
2026-04-28	KAUFTHAL ILAN	director	Withheld for tax	4,032	290,312	Form 4
2026-04-28	JONES GINGER M	director	Withheld for tax	3,335	120,735	Form 4
2026-04-28	Jones Stephen J	director	Withheld for tax	2,881	92,533	Form 4
2026-04-28	Johnston Peter	director	Withheld for tax	2,742	188,771	Form 4
2026-04-28	Nkosi Sipho Abednego	director	Withheld for tax	1,705	86,333	Form 4
2026-04-28	Jones Stephen J	director	Award / grant	15,690	108,223	Form 4
2026-04-28	Nkosi Sipho Abednego	director	Award / grant	15,690	102,023	Form 4
2026-04-28	Khan Moazzam A.	director	Award / grant	15,690	64,017	Form 4
2026-04-28	Turgeon Jean Francois	director	Award / grant	15,690	755,161	Form 4
2026-04-28	KAUFTHAL ILAN	director	Award / grant	15,690	306,002	Form 4
2026-04-28	JONES GINGER M	director	Award / grant	15,690	136,425	Form 4
2026-04-28	Johnston Peter	director	Award / grant	15,690	204,461	Form 4
2026-02-11	Flood Jonathan	officer	Award / grant	37,048	107,869	Form 4
2026-02-11	Neuman Jeffrey N	officer	Award / grant	63,530	373,855	Form 4
2026-02-11	Romano John D	director	Award / grant	341,855	1,575,340	Form 4
2026-02-11	Srivisal John	officer	Award / grant	61,855	299,138	Form 4
2026-02-11	Engle Jeffrey A.	officer	Award / grant	42,900	189,826	Form 4
2026-02-11	Flood Jonathan	officer	Award / grant	18,524	70,821	Form 4
2025-05-07	Turgeon Jean Francois	director	Withheld for tax	5,160	714,199	Form 4
2025-05-07	Khan Moazzam A.	director	Withheld for tax	5,116	37,270	Form 4
2025-05-07	Foufopoulos - De Ridder Lucrece	director	Withheld for tax	1,162	7,162	Form 4
2025-05-07	KAUFTHAL ILAN	director	Withheld for tax	1,111	267,121	Form 4
2025-05-07	Nkosi Sipho Abednego	director	Withheld for tax	1,094	60,815	Form 4
2025-05-07	JONES GINGER M	director	Withheld for tax	721	96,847	Form 4
2025-05-07	Jones Stephen J	director	Withheld for tax	721	68,191	Form 4
2025-05-07	Johnston Peter	director	Withheld for tax	589	144,290	Form 4
2025-05-07	JONES GINGER M	director	Award / grant	27,223	124,070	Form 4
2025-05-07	Turgeon Jean Francois	director	Award / grant	27,223	741,422	Form 4
2025-05-07	Jones Stephen J	director	Award / grant	27,223	95,414	Form 4
2025-05-07	Khan Moazzam A.	director	Award / grant	27,223	64,493	Form 4
2025-05-07	Foufopoulos - De Ridder Lucrece	director	Award / grant	27,223	34,385	Form 4
2025-05-07	Nkosi Sipho Abednego	director	Award / grant	27,223	88,038	Form 4
2025-05-07	BECK JULIE A	director	Award / grant	32,940	32,940	Form 4
2025-05-07	Johnston Peter	director	Award / grant	27,223	171,513	Form 4
2025-05-07	KAUFTHAL ILAN	director	Award / grant	27,223	294,344	Form 4
2025-03-05	Romano John D	director	Withheld for tax	49,877	1,233,485	Form 4
2025-03-05	Turgeon Jean Francois	director	Withheld for tax	25,444	719,359	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i