Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.32 · now $57.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRMB has typically landed between $48.68 and $65.89 — a range of −15.1% to +15.0% from the issuance price $57.32.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TRMB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $57.32 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $57.03 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $53.63–$60.42
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $48.68–$65.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −53.3% | −53.3% | +1.1% |
| 2020-02-14 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +1.7% |
| 2020-02-13 | −46.1% | −46.1% | +2.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +52.3% | +0.0% | +61.6% |
| 2009-03-30 | +45.8% | +0.0% | +45.8% |
| 2015-10-02 | +42.8% | +0.0% | +42.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$12.3B
market cap
$1.90
EPS (TTM)
27.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$3.6B
'20'25
Net income$424M
'20'25
Free cash flow$133M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr7.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.24
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$42.25
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$64.99
- Analyst target · range $61.00–$80.00$70.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$57.32
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
−1.8%
n=18
Feb
58%
+4.1%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.0%
n=19
Apr
47%
+2.6%
n=19
May
32%
−1.9%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
68%
+2.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
39%
−0.0%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.7%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.7%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Gabriel Kaigham | director | Sale | 1,718 @ $60.00 | $103K | −9.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,426 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | SCHWARTZ MARK DAVID | officer | Sale | 8,442 @ $67.01 | $566K | −23.2% of holding | −23.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | SCHWARTZ MARK DAVID | officer | Sale | 8,283 @ $67.01 | $555K | −29.6% of holding | −23.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $66.94 | $502K | −38.7% of holding | −24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $70.45 | $528K | −27.9% of holding | −5.9% | −30.0% | 19,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Dalton James Calvin | director | Sale | 733 @ $67.02 | $49K | −5.6% of holding | +1.1% | −21.5% | 12,460 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $65.14 | $489K | −21.8% of holding | −0.2% | −30.4% | 26,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $80.88 | $607K | −17.9% of holding | −15.9% | −41.8% | 34,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Sawarynski Phillip | officer | Sale | 2,250 @ $80.45 | $181K | −8.1% of holding | −10.4% | −49.8% | 25,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $81.39 | $610K | −15.2% of holding | −2.9% | −47.2% | 41,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Dalton James Calvin | director | Sale | 616 @ $81.99 | $51K | −4.5% of holding | −3.1% | −40.9% | 13,193 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Bisio Ronald | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $80.87 | $202K | −2.8% of holding | −3.1% | −40.7% | 86,403 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | SCHWARTZ MARK DAVID | officer | Sale | 1,672 @ $76.83 | $128K | −7.9% of holding | +3.6% | −37.9% | 19,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $79.50 | $596K | −8.1% of holding | +3.8% | −40.1% | 84,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Gabriel Kaigham | director | Sale | 1,718 @ $81.00 | $139K | −10.2% of holding | +1.8% | −37.3% | 15,170 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $75.65 | $567K | −7.5% of holding | +2.1% | −19.8% | 92,379 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Keating Christopher F | officer | Sale | 7,365 @ $81.74 | $602K | −94.8% of holding | −5.8% | −18.3% | 406 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $81.31 | $610K | −7.0% of holding | −3.3% | −20.2% | 99,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Sawarynski Phillip | officer | Sale | 2,250 @ $81.31 | $183K | −7.5% of holding | −3.3% | −20.2% | 27,934 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Dalton James Calvin | director | Sale | 609 @ $82.41 | $50K | −4.2% of holding | −2.9% | −23.2% | 13,809 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Bisio Ronald | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $81.55 | $204K | −2.7% of holding | −3.8% | −25.3% | 88,903 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Large Peter | officer | Sale | 1,673 @ $81.55 | $136K | −9.2% of holding | −3.8% | −25.3% | 16,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Large Peter | officer | Sale | 503 @ $81.55 | $41K | −3.0% of holding | −3.8% | −25.3% | 16,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Large Peter | officer | Sale | 500 @ $81.55 | $41K | −3.0% of holding | −3.8% | −25.3% | 16,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $82.93 | $622K | −6.5% of holding | −3.2% | −30.4% | 107,379 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 85,699 @ $82.67 | $7.1M | −37.6% of holding | −5.5% | −26.1% | 141,981 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 27,102 @ $83.14 | $2.3M | −19.1% of holding | −5.5% | −26.1% | 114,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 2,980 @ $84.53 | $252K | −2.5% of holding | −5.5% | −26.1% | 114,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 93,066 @ $84.54 | $7.9M | −44.8% of holding | −6.5% | −29.6% | 114,879 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Allison Jennifer | officer | Sale | 3,156 @ $80.00 | $252K | −52.3% of holding | +1.8% | −12.4% | 2,882 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | SCHWARTZ MARK DAVID | officer | Sale | 1,404 @ $80.00 | $112K | −6.3% of holding | +1.8% | −12.4% | 21,001 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $78.86 | $591K | −6.1% of holding | +4.1% | −9.3% | 114,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | SCHWARTZ MARK DAVID | officer | Sale | 1,476 @ $78.00 | $115K | −6.2% of holding | +5.9% | −10.6% | 22,405 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | Bisio Ronald | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $75.00 | $188K | −2.7% of holding | +9.3% | −6.8% | 91,728 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Bisio Ronald | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $72.75 | $109K | −1.6% of holding | +8.0% | −3.6% | 94,228 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $72.47 | $544K | −5.8% of holding | +6.2% | −2.0% | 122,379 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Gabriel Kaigham | director | Sale | 6,003 @ $70.94 | $426K | −26.2% of holding | +4.9% | −0.1% | 16,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Dalton James Calvin | director | Sale | 696 @ $72.00 | $50K | −6.8% of holding | +0.9% | −2.5% | 9,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $71.53 | $536K | −5.6% of holding | +0.5% | −3.8% | 125,379 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Gabriel Kaigham | director | Sale | 6,511 @ $71.69 | $467K | −26.6% of holding | −0.5% | −7.3% | 17,939 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Large Peter | officer | Sale | 920 @ $70.80 | $65K | −5.3% of holding | −0.3% | −4.6% | 16,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Large Peter | officer | Sale | 180 @ $70.79 | $13K | −1.1% of holding | −0.3% | −4.6% | 16,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Large Peter | officer | Sale | 1,900 @ $66.55 | $126K | −9.8% of holding | +1.3% | −2.3% | 17,480 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
257 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Bement Kenneth B | officer | Option exercise | 4,056 | 4,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Bement Kenneth B | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,167 | 3,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Bement Kenneth B | officer | Option exercise | 4,056 | 8,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wibergh Johan | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 3,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | EKHOLM BORJE | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 65,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Gabriel Kaigham | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 19,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Lloyd Meaghan | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 57,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Nersesian Ronald S. | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 16,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SPRAGUE KARA LYNN | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 10,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sweet Thomas W | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 22,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wibergh Johan | director | Withheld for tax | 265 | 3,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Gabriel Kaigham | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wibergh Johan | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | EKHOLM BORJE | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Nersesian Ronald S. | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sweet Thomas W | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SPRAGUE KARA LYNN | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Lloyd Meaghan | director | Option exercise | 3,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Nersesian Ronald S. | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 4,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | EKHOLM BORJE | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 4,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Gabriel Kaigham | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 4,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Lloyd Meaghan | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 4,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | SPRAGUE KARA LYNN | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 4,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Sweet Thomas W | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 4,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Wibergh Johan | director | Award / grant | 4,725 | 4,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Award / grant | 140,809 | 152,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Withheld for tax | 61,604 | 91,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Award / grant | 46,937 | 138,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Withheld for tax | 20,535 | 117,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Option exercise | 19,631 | 137,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Option exercise | 16,085 | 144,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Option exercise | 15,284 | 152,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Large Peter | officer | Award / grant | 13,689 | 30,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Bisio Ronald | officer | Award / grant | 13,689 | 100,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | SCHWARTZ MARK DAVID | officer | Award / grant | 10,757 | 30,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Withheld for tax | 8,589 | 128,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keating Christopher F | officer | Award / grant | 7,334 | 7,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Allison Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 7,089 | 9,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Withheld for tax | 7,038 | 137,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PAINTER ROBERT G | director | Withheld for tax | 6,687 | 146,190 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-02-02 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-02-02 | 2026-01-28 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.