TRIPTripadvisor, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.94 · now $8.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRIP has typically landed between $6.82 and $11.07 — a range of −23.7% to +23.8% from the issuance price $8.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,681 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-12-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TRIP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.82worst · -23.7%$11.07best · +23.8%
  • now $8.94 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.74 (-2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.93–$9.55
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.82–$11.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,681 windows spanning 2011-12-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-11−49.9%−49.9%+2.1%
2020-02-18−49.9%−49.9%+0.3%
2020-02-14−47.4%−49.7%+0.0%
3 best
2021-01-29+70.0%+0.0%+70.0%
2021-02-11+64.5%+0.0%+64.5%
2021-02-16+63.7%+0.0%+63.7%

3,681 overlapping windows · 2011-12-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+4.0%
n=15
Feb
33%
+3.8%
n=15
Mar
60%
+0.3%
n=15
Apr
40%
−2.6%
n=15
May
47%
+1.3%
n=15
Jun
47%
+1.0%
n=15
Jul
60%
+3.3%
n=15
Aug
27%
−5.2%
n=15
Sep
27%
−3.5%
n=15
Oct
50%
+2.3%
n=14
Nov
36%
−0.9%
n=14
Dec
57%
+1.5%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$92026-09-02: 1 insider sale, $76K — Ambeskovic Almir2026-07-16: 1 insider sale, $119K — Dalton Kristen Ann2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $98K — Ambeskovic Almir2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $77K — Ambeskovic Almir2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $270K — Dalton Kristen Ann2025-11-17: 1 insider sale, $31K — Ambeskovic Almir2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $34K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $218K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $31K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $270K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $77K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $98K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $119K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $76K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Ambeskovic Almir — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dalton Kristen Ann — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ambeskovic Almir — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ambeskovic Almir — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dalton Kristen Ann — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ambeskovic Almir — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Ambeskovic AlmirofficerSale8,000 @ $9.45$76K−20.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open30,456Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-16Dalton Kristen AnnofficerSale7,908 @ $15.00$119K−6.3% of holding−37.9%not yet — horizon still open117,619Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02Ambeskovic AlmirofficerSale8,000 @ $12.30$98K−18.9% of holding+21.4%not yet — horizon still open34,396Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Ambeskovic AlmirofficerSale8,000 @ $9.67$77K−17.5% of holding+11.8%not yet — horizon still open37,608Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-10Dalton Kristen AnnofficerSale18,000 @ $14.98$270K−17.6% of holding−6.6%−29.1%84,161Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17Ambeskovic AlmirofficerSale2,094 @ $14.71$31K−9.1% of holding−0.2%−42.9%20,904Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

294 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Goldberg MattdirectorOption exercise17,186284,736Form 4
2026-08-14Goldberg MattdirectorOption exercise8,324270,698Form 4
2026-08-14Goldberg MattdirectorWithheld for tax8,310276,426Form 4
2026-08-14Noonan MichaelofficerOption exercise7,336150,764Form 4
2026-08-14Ambeskovic AlmirofficerOption exercise4,71641,103Form 4
2026-08-14Noonan MichaelofficerOption exercise4,215143,525Form 4
2026-08-14Dalton Kristen AnnofficerOption exercise4,192126,479Form 4
2026-08-14Goldberg MattdirectorWithheld for tax4,025266,673Form 4
2026-08-14Noonan MichaelofficerOption exercise3,758145,245Form 4
2026-08-14Noonan MichaelofficerWithheld for tax3,547147,217Form 4
2026-08-14Ambeskovic AlmirofficerOption exercise2,81037,206Form 4
2026-08-14Dalton Kristen AnnofficerOption exercise2,890123,251Form 4
2026-08-14Dalton Kristen AnnofficerOption exercise2,810121,299Form 4
2026-08-14Ambeskovic AlmirofficerWithheld for tax2,64738,456Form 4
2026-08-14Gouvalaris GeoffreyotherOption exercise2,201109,164Form 4
2026-08-14Ambeskovic AlmirofficerOption exercise1,73437,362Form 4
2026-08-14Noonan MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,038141,487Form 4
2026-08-14Noonan MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1,817143,428Form 4
2026-08-14Goldberg MattdirectorOption exercise1,699268,372Form 4
2026-08-14Ambeskovic AlmirofficerWithheld for tax1,57835,628Form 4
2026-08-14Dalton Kristen AnnofficerWithheld for tax1,399125,080Form 4
2026-08-14Gouvalaris GeoffreyotherOption exercise1,370106,754Form 4
2026-08-14Dalton Kristen AnnofficerWithheld for tax964122,287Form 4
2026-08-14Dalton Kristen AnnofficerWithheld for tax938120,361Form 4
2026-08-14Ambeskovic AlmirofficerWithheld for tax97536,387Form 4
2026-08-14Gouvalaris GeoffreyotherOption exercise867107,218Form 4
2026-08-14Goldberg MattdirectorWithheld for tax822267,550Form 4
2026-08-14Gouvalaris GeoffreyotherWithheld for tax646108,518Form 4
2026-08-14Gouvalaris GeoffreyotherWithheld for tax403106,351Form 4
2026-08-14Gouvalaris GeoffreyotherWithheld for tax255106,963Form 4
2026-08-14Dalton Kristen AnnofficerOption exercise2,89017,342Form 4
2026-08-14Dalton Kristen AnnofficerOption exercise2,8105,621Form 4
2026-08-14Goldberg MattdirectorOption exercise1,69913,587Form 4
2026-08-14Goldberg MattdirectorOption exercise8,32449,945Form 4
2026-08-14Gouvalaris GeoffreyotherOption exercise1,3702,741Form 4
2026-08-14Gouvalaris GeoffreyotherOption exercise8675,203Form 4
2026-08-14Gouvalaris GeoffreyotherOption exercise2,20122,008Form 4
2026-08-14Noonan MichaelofficerOption exercise4,2158,432Form 4
2026-08-14Noonan MichaelofficerOption exercise3,75822,545Form 4
2026-08-14Noonan MichaelofficerOption exercise7,33673,357Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-12$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2021-01-252020-12-17$100–250K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2021-01-252020-12-17$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-08-172020-07-29$1–15K
Ron WydenSenatesale2020-07-312020-07-07$50–100K
Ron WydenSenatepurchase2020-07-022020-06-05$50–100K
Ron WydenSenatepurchase2020-06-012020-05-27$15–50K
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-01-09$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-04-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2020-02-192020-01-15$100–250K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2020-02-192020-01-15$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2020-01-292019-12-12$100–250K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-06-112019-05-28$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.