TRINTrinity Capital Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.60 · now $17.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRIN has typically landed between $15.67 and $19.68 — a range of −10.9% to +11.8% from the issuance price $17.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,393 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TRIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$15.67worst · -10.9%$19.68best · +11.8%
  • now $17.6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.9 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.2–$18.6
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.67–$19.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,393 windows spanning 2021-01-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-10-25−23.5%−23.5%+0.9%
2022-10-26−22.3%−24.2%+0.0%
2022-10-21−20.9%−20.9%+3.9%
3 best
2022-12-15+25.5%+0.0%+25.6%
2022-12-09+25.0%+0.0%+25.0%
2022-12-12+24.7%+0.0%+24.7%

1,393 overlapping windows · 2021-01-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+7.4%
n=5
Feb
67%
+0.8%
n=6
Mar
67%
+1.8%
n=6
Apr
33%
−1.1%
n=6
May
50%
+0.5%
n=6
Jun
67%
+1.3%
n=6
Jul
67%
+3.2%
n=6
Aug
83%
+3.9%
n=6
Sep
33%
−2.7%
n=6
Oct
40%
−1.4%
n=5
Nov
60%
+1.2%
n=5
Dec
100%
+4.2%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$132026-08-07: 1 insider purchase, $41K — Brown Kyle Steven2026-03-16: 2 insider purchases, $61K — Brown Kyle Steven, Estes Ronald E.2026-03-12: 1 insider purchase, $400K — Brown Steve Louis2026-03-11: 1 insider purchase, $7K — Estes Ronald E.2026-03-09: 3 insider purchases, $33K — Brown Steve Louis, Estes Ronald E. …2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $3K — Estes Ronald E.2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Brown Kyle Steven2025-12-15: 1 insider purchase, $15K — Estes Ronald E.2025-12-12: 1 insider purchase, $8K — Estes Ronald E.2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $14K — Estes Ronald E.2025-11-18: 2 insider purchases, $38K — Brown Steve Louis, Estes Ronald E.2025-11-07: 4 insider purchases, $217K — Brown Kyle Steven, Brown Steve Louis, Estes Ronald E. …2025-09-12: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Estes Ronald E.2025-09-11: 2 insider purchases, $32K — Estes Ronald E. …2025-09-10: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Estes Ronald E.2025-09-03: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Estes Ronald E.2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $50K2025-09: 5 open-market purchases, $81K2025-11: 7 open-market purchases, $269K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $23K2026-03: 9 open-market purchases, $554K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $41K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Brown Kyle Steven — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Brown Kyle Steven — Purchase on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Brown Steve Louis — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed same daydirector Brown Steve Louis — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Brown Steve Louis — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Brown Kyle Steven — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Brown Steve Louis — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Brown Kyle Steven — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Brown Steve Louis — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Brown Steve Louis — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Estes Ronald E. — Purchase on 2025-09-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Brown Kyle StevendirectorPurchase2,296 @ $18.04$41K+0.4% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open612,262Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-16Brown Kyle StevendirectorPurchase3,532 @ $14.16$50K+0.6% of holding+6.8%+16.9%620,709Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase800 @ $14.16$11K+2.0% of holding+6.8%+16.9%40,443Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Brown Steve LouisdirectorPurchase27,109 @ $14.75$400K+3.0% of holding+1.5%+13.3%940,745Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase500 @ $14.75$7K+1.3% of holding+2.7%+14.3%39,643Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09Brown Steve LouisdirectorPurchase1,585 @ $14.82$23K+0.4% of holding+2.7%+14.7%407,408Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Brown Steve LouisdirectorPurchase518 @ $14.82$8K+0.1% of holding+2.7%+14.7%913,636Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase105 @ $14.80$2K+0.3% of holding+2.7%+14.7%39,143Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase200 @ $14.73$3K+0.5% of holding+3.8%+17.1%39,038Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Brown Kyle StevendirectorPurchase3,333 @ $14.90$50K+0.9% of holding+4.8%+19.2%376,775Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase1,000 @ $15.08$15K+2.7% of holding+9.4%+11.7%38,444Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase500 @ $15.15$8K+1.4% of holding+8.3%+10.9%37,444Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-19Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase1,000 @ $14.43$14K+2.8% of holding+1.9%+10.8%36,944Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Brown Steve LouisdirectorPurchase2,137 @ $14.52$31K+0.3% of holding+1.4%+9.8%820,603Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-18Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase500 @ $14.45$7K+1.4% of holding+1.4%+9.8%35,944Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07Brown Kyle StevendirectorPurchase6,920 @ $14.44$100K+0.7% of holding+2.1%+13.5%997,033Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07Brown Steve LouisdirectorPurchase4,500 @ $14.42$65K+0.6% of holding+2.1%+13.5%818,466Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase2,000 @ $14.44$29K+5.4% of holding+2.1%+13.5%38,779Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07Brown Steve LouisdirectorPurchase1,600 @ $14.40$23K+0.3% of holding+2.1%+13.5%542,346Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-12Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase1,000 @ $16.08$16K+2.8% of holding−6.0%−6.1%36,779Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-11Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase1,000 @ $16.10$16K+3.0% of holding−7.1%−3.5%34,779Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-11Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase1,000 @ $16.05$16K+2.9% of holding−7.1%−3.5%35,779Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-10Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase1,000 @ $16.14$16K+3.1% of holding−9.2%−4.1%33,779Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase1,000 @ $16.15$16K+3.1% of holding−4.9%−6.0%32,779Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-08Brown Kyle StevendirectorPurchase3,200 @ $15.78$50K+0.3% of holding+0.4%−0.2%1,006,300Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase1,000 @ $14.48$14K+3.7% of holding+0.3%−3.2%28,336Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase700 @ $14.60$10K+2.6% of holding+0.1%−2.8%27,336Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-05Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase1,000 @ $14.35$14K+3.9% of holding−3.1%−6.1%26,636Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-19HAMADA RICHARD PdirectorSale3,309 @ $14.90$49K−3.4% of holding−4.9%−8.7%93,735Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19HAMADA RICHARD PdirectorSale26 @ $14.90$387−0.0% of holding−4.9%−8.7%97,044Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-09Brown Kyle StevendirectorPurchase3,513 @ $14.22$50K+6.8% of holding−4.4%−9.8%55,332Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-10Zacharia MichaeldirectorPurchase4,210 @ $14.34$60K+23.5% of holding+6.6%+8.1%22,102Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-10Zacharia MichaeldirectorPurchase1,350 @ $14.35$19K+8.2% of holding+6.6%+8.1%17,892Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-01Estes Ronald E.directorPurchase300 @ $13.50$4K+1.2% of holding+1.7%+12.0%25,636Form 4 · filed 220 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Brown Steve LouisdirectorWithheld for tax13,591347,801Form 4
2026-09-14Brown Steve LouisdirectorWithheld for tax663361,392Form 4
2026-06-15Brown Steve LouisdirectorWithheld for tax13,590362,055Form 4
2026-06-15Brown Kyle StevendirectorWithheld for tax10,743609,966Form 4
2026-06-15Harder GeraldofficerWithheld for tax4,654220,608Form 4
2026-06-15Kundich RonaldofficerWithheld for tax3,982234,306Form 4
2026-06-15Stanton SarahofficerWithheld for tax3,310132,428Form 4
2026-06-15Testa MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,601141,165Form 4
2026-06-12Brown Steve LouisdirectorWithheld for tax662375,645Form 4
2026-06-11Estes Ronald E.directorGift3,00010,615Form 4
2026-06-10HAMADA RICHARD PdirectorAward / grant6,176103,354Form 4
2026-06-10Estes Ronald E.directorAward / grant6,17644,374Form 4
2026-06-10Lockridge IrmadirectorAward / grant6,17626,302Form 4
2026-06-10Zacharia MichaeldirectorAward / grant6,17623,344Form 4
2026-06-10HAMADA RICHARD PdirectorAward / grant6,176103,354Form 4
2026-06-10Estes Ronald E.directorAward / grant6,17644,374Form 4
2026-06-10Lockridge IrmadirectorAward / grant6,17626,302Form 4
2026-06-10Zacharia MichaeldirectorAward / grant6,17623,344Form 4
2026-03-13Brown Steve LouisdirectorWithheld for tax31,101376,307Form 4
2026-03-13Brown Kyle StevendirectorWithheld for tax16,187360,588Form 4
2026-03-13Harder GeraldofficerWithheld for tax10,928121,240Form 4
2026-03-13Kundich RonaldofficerWithheld for tax6,826202,283Form 4
2026-03-13Stanton SarahofficerWithheld for tax6,37080,260Form 4
2026-03-13Testa MichaelofficerWithheld for tax4,79991,755Form 4
2026-03-13Testa MichaelofficerAward / grant52,011143,766Form 4
2026-03-13Brown Kyle StevendirectorAward / grant256,588617,176Form 4
2026-03-13Stanton SarahofficerAward / grant55,478135,738Form 4
2026-03-13Kundich RonaldofficerAward / grant45,076247,359Form 4
2026-03-13Brown Kyle StevendirectorAward / grant256,588617,176Form 4
2026-03-13Harder GeraldofficerAward / grant104,022225,262Form 4
2026-03-13Stanton SarahofficerAward / grant55,478135,738Form 4
2026-03-13Testa MichaelofficerAward / grant52,011143,766Form 4
2026-03-13Kundich RonaldofficerAward / grant45,076247,359Form 4
2026-03-13Harder GeraldofficerAward / grant104,022225,262Form 4
2025-12-15Brown Kyle StevendirectorWithheld for tax16,187285,700Form 4
2025-12-15Brown Steve LouisdirectorWithheld for tax15,731804,872Form 4
2025-12-15Harder GeraldofficerWithheld for tax4,578291,546Form 4
2025-12-15Kundich RonaldofficerWithheld for tax4,037209,109Form 4
2025-12-15Stanton SarahofficerWithheld for tax2,537138,269Form 4
2025-12-15Testa MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1,48696,554Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.