Issued 2026-09-16 at $284.77 · now $284.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRGP has typically landed between $252.51 and $330.69 — a range of −11.3% to +16.1% from the issuance price $284.77.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,946 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-12-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($284.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TRGP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $284.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $284.77 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $294.84 (+3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $278.53–$311.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $252.51–$330.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,946 windows spanning 2010-12-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −87.2% | −87.2% | +7.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −82.7% | −87.2% | +6.8% |
| 2020-03-03 | −82.2% | −85.7% | +2.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-21 | +123.2% | +0.0% | +124.2% |
| 2020-04-17 | +121.7% | −1.1% | +121.7% |
| 2020-04-20 | +113.7% | −0.6% | +122.9% |
3,946 overlapping windows · 2010-12-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$60.4B
market cap
$9.82
EPS (TTM)
28.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$17.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$584M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr60.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr5.72
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-45.69
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$199.07
- Analyst target · range $231.00–$333.00$282.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$284.77
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+3.9%
n=16
Feb
69%
+5.5%
n=16
Mar
69%
+0.0%
n=16
Apr
63%
+9.6%
n=16
May
38%
+0.3%
n=16
Jun
56%
+3.5%
n=16
Jul
69%
+1.3%
n=16
Aug
56%
+0.5%
n=16
Sep
50%
+0.4%
n=16
Oct
53%
+3.3%
n=15
Nov
60%
+4.2%
n=15
Dec
60%
+0.3%
n=15
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Chung Paul W | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $295.38 | $295K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Chung Paul W | director | Sale | 816 @ $297.00 | $242K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | CRISP CHARLES R | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $290.23 | $871K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,292 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Davis Waters S IV | director | Sale | 692 @ $297.38 | $206K | −19.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,797 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Davis Waters S IV | director | Sale | 590 @ $303.81 | $179K | −27.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,529 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Davis Waters S IV | director | Sale | 440 @ $296.39 | $130K | −11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,489 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Davis Waters S IV | director | Sale | 270 @ $302.47 | $82K | −11.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,119 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Davis Waters S IV | director | Sale | 254 @ $298.68 | $76K | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,543 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Davis Waters S IV | director | Sale | 154 @ $300.18 | $46K | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,389 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | CRISP CHARLES R | director | Sale | 10,602 @ $255.96 | $2.7M | −13.8% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,492 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Muraro Robert | officer | Sale | 24,589 @ $241.34 | $5.9M | −11.1% of holding | +5.8% | +9.4% | 197,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | McDonie Patrick J. | officer | Sale | 30,421 @ $239.33 | $7.3M | −9.0% of holding | +10.2% | +10.8% | 306,279 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Branstetter Benjamin James | officer | Sale | 3,158 @ $238.83 | $754K | −9.7% of holding | +10.2% | +10.8% | 29,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | McDonie Patrick J. | officer | Sale | 1,116 @ $240.25 | $268K | −0.4% of holding | +10.2% | +10.8% | 305,163 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Branstetter Benjamin James | officer | Sale | 100 @ $238.99 | $24K | −0.3% of holding | +10.2% | +10.8% | 29,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Cooksen Lindsey | director | Sale | 435 @ $231.72 | $101K | −3.6% of holding | +16.0% | +13.1% | 11,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Sale | 9,134 @ $229.44 | $2.1M | −21.4% of holding | +15.5% | +17.3% | 33,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Sale | 3,870 @ $228.34 | $884K | −8.3% of holding | +15.5% | +17.3% | 42,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Sale | 2,798 @ $227.28 | $636K | −5.7% of holding | +15.5% | +17.3% | 46,640 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Sale | 1,698 @ $230.10 | $391K | −5.0% of holding | +15.5% | +17.3% | 31,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Sale | 27,984 @ $230.10 | $6.4M | −10.6% of holding | +10.1% | +12.4% | 236,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Sale | 1,525 @ $230.43 | $351K | −0.6% of holding | +10.1% | +12.4% | 235,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | CRISP CHARLES R | director | Sale | 1,359 @ $229.30 | $312K | −1.7% of holding | +10.1% | +12.4% | 77,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Shrader Gerald R | officer | Sale | 2,750 @ $181.21 | $498K | −8.5% of holding | −4.3% | +39.5% | 29,561 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $172.21 | $3.4M | −47.5% of holding | +0.9% | +51.3% | 22,139 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $165.35 | $3.3M | −32.2% of holding | −2.7% | +32.3% | 42,139 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Sale | 10,200 @ $161.28 | $1.6M | −12.4% of holding | −4.4% | −11.8% | 71,939 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Sale | 9,800 @ $162.02 | $1.6M | −13.6% of holding | −4.4% | −11.8% | 62,139 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Chung Paul W | director | Sale | 3,986 @ $203.33 | $810K | −10.0% of holding | +5.0% | −25.1% | 35,920 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Chung Paul W | director | Sale | 2,236 @ $202.18 | $452K | −5.3% of holding | +5.0% | −25.1% | 39,906 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Cooksen Lindsey | director | Sale | 1,010 @ $198.00 | $200K | −8.3% of holding | +5.0% | −25.1% | 11,115 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Cooksen Lindsey | director | Sale | 40 @ $201.56 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | +5.0% | −25.1% | 11,075 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $197.30 | $6.9M | −29.9% of holding | +5.9% | −25.2% | 82,139 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-25 | MELOY MATTHEW J | director | Sale | 35,223 @ $195.08 | $6.9M | −4.6% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 731,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Sale | 25,626 @ $191.76 | $4.9M | −10.0% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 231,530 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | MELOY MATTHEW J | director | Sale | 7,395 @ $194.25 | $1.4M | −1.0% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 767,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | MELOY MATTHEW J | director | Sale | 6,219 @ $196.07 | $1.2M | −0.8% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 725,628 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Davis Waters S IV | director | Sale | 2,190 @ $196.26 | $430K | −43.0% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 2,899 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Sale | 1,999 @ $195.30 | $390K | −0.9% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 229,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | CRISP CHARLES R | director | Sale | 1,947 @ $194.23 | $378K | −2.3% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 80,923 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $197.65 | $356K | −0.8% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 227,569 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Sale | 300 @ $198.18 | $59K | −0.1% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 227,269 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Sale | 162 @ $192.74 | $31K | −0.1% of holding | +7.7% | −24.6% | 231,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
98 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Perkins Joe Bob | director | Gift | 8,370 | 102,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Secrest Brent B. | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | CRISP CHARLES R | director | Gift | 1,200 | 65,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Chung Paul W | director | Gift | 1,000 | 30,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Muraro Robert | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 217,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Shrader Gerald R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,718 | 33,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Branstetter Benjamin James | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,346 | 27,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Eklof John Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 578 | 13,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mathiasmeier Thomas Joseph | director | Award / grant | 477 | 477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MELOY MATTHEW J | director | Gift | 15,000 | 712,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chung Paul W | director | Gift | 6,000 | 31,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Branstetter Benjamin James | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,542 | 32,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Gift | 12,104 | 19,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Gift | 2,500 | 29,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Gift | 12,104 | 32,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | JOYCE RENE R | director | Gift | 4,000 | 210,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | CRISP CHARLES R | director | Gift | 1,500 | 78,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | MELOY MATTHEW J | director | Gift | 40,000 | 727,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | MELOY MATTHEW J | director | Withheld for tax | 51,921 | 788,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | MELOY MATTHEW J | director | Withheld for tax | 21,077 | 767,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,342 | 272,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | McDonie Patrick J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,129 | 342,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Muraro Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,410 | 227,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,600 | 54,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,643 | 264,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | McDonie Patrick J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,958 | 336,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,347 | 49,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Muraro Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,347 | 221,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Muraro Robert | officer | Award / grant | 33,965 | 240,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | McDonie Patrick J. | officer | Award / grant | 33,965 | 356,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | MELOY MATTHEW J | director | Award / grant | 133,905 | 840,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Pryor D. Scott | officer | Award / grant | 33,965 | 67,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Kneale Jennifer R. | officer | Award / grant | 48,558 | 290,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Byers William A. | officer | Award / grant | 7,237 | 16,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Bowman Beth A. | director | Award / grant | 1,030 | 21,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Cooksen Lindsey | director | Award / grant | 1,030 | 12,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Eklof John Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 1,566 | 14,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Fulton Laura C. | director | Award / grant | 1,030 | 32,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Lawhorn Caron A | director | Award / grant | 1,030 | 3,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Chung Paul W | director | Award / grant | 1,559 | 37,479 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-04 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2020-05-08 | 2020-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-03-09 | 2020-02-11 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-03-09 | 2020-02-11 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2020-03-03 | 2020-02-10 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2020-03-03 | 2020-02-19 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.