Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.58 · now $26.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TREE has typically landed between $18.82 and $35.93 — a range of −29.2% to +35.2% from the issuance price $26.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,531 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-08-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TREE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $26.58 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.55 (-3.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.47–$29.62
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.82–$35.93
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-09 | −74.5% | −74.5% | +2.1% |
| 2008-09-12 | −72.5% | −74.8% | +0.8% |
| 2008-09-16 | −72.3% | −75.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-15 | +191.0% | +0.0% | +199.3% |
| 2008-12-12 | +161.5% | −7.1% | +178.2% |
| 2008-12-08 | +147.4% | −15.2% | +147.4% |
4,531 overlapping windows · 2008-08-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Bengel Jason | officer | Sale | 6,469 @ $68.86 | $445K | −49.8% of holding | −4.2% | −57.7% | 6,517 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Rodriguez Diego A | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $69.78 | $84K | −12.9% of holding | −4.2% | −57.7% | 8,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Enlow-Novitsky Heather | officer | Sale | 1,237 @ $36.24 | $45K | −37.9% of holding | −2.5% | +28.7% | 2,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Enlow-Novitsky Heather | officer | Sale | 13 @ $36.28 | $472 | −0.4% of holding | −2.5% | +28.7% | 3,265 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 5,616 @ $46.47 | $261K | +6.2% of holding | −9.0% | +34.4% | 96,486 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 3,098 @ $45.21 | $140K | +3.5% of holding | −9.0% | +34.4% | 90,870 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 1,080 @ $47.00 | $51K | +1.1% of holding | −9.0% | +34.4% | 97,566 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 5,444 @ $45.26 | $246K | +6.9% of holding | −1.9% | +38.2% | 84,722 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 3,050 @ $46.04 | $140K | +3.6% of holding | −1.9% | +38.2% | 87,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 2,518 @ $44.15 | $111K | +3.3% of holding | −1.9% | +38.2% | 79,278 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 18,061 @ $41.60 | $751K | +32.4% of holding | +9.5% | +56.3% | 73,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 2,984 @ $42.26 | $126K | +4.0% of holding | +9.5% | +56.3% | 76,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 3,122 @ $42.36 | $132K | +5.9% of holding | +10.0% | +55.2% | 55,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Peyree Scott | officer | Purchase | 2,027 @ $41.80 | $85K | +4.0% of holding | +10.0% | +55.2% | 52,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Sarasvathy Saras | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Henderson Robin | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | ERNST MARK A | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Dalporto Gabriel | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rodriguez Diego A | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Davidson Thomas M JR | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | THOMPSON G KENNEDY | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | OZONIAN STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | OZONIAN STEVEN | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | ERNST MARK A | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Davidson Thomas M JR | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Henderson Robin | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Dalporto Gabriel | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Rodriguez Diego A | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sarasvathy Saras | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | THOMPSON G KENNEDY | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Henderson Robin | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 17,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Dalporto Gabriel | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 18,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Davidson Thomas M JR | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 18,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Rodriguez Diego A | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 13,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Davidson Thomas M JR | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 18,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | ERNST MARK A | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 49,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | OZONIAN STEVEN | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 20,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | ERNST MARK A | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 49,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sarasvathy Saras | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 19,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Dalporto Gabriel | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 18,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | THOMPSON G KENNEDY | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 18,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Henderson Robin | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 17,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | OZONIAN STEVEN | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 20,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Rodriguez Diego A | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 13,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sarasvathy Saras | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 19,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | THOMPSON G KENNEDY | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 18,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Olmstead Jill | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,689 | 40,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Peyree Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,962 | 119,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Peyree Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,968 | 122,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Bengel Jason | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,896 | 15,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Enlow-Novitsky Heather | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,612 | 7,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Shumate Carla | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,185 | 19,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Smith Ian Malcolm | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 20,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Smith Ian Malcolm | officer | Option exercise | 3,333 | 6,667 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.