TRCTejon Ranch Co.Industrials · Conglomeratesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.99 · now $15.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRC has typically landed between $14.48 and $17.82 — a range of −9.4% to +11.4% from the issuance price $15.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TRC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$14.48worst · -9.4%$17.82best · +11.4%
  • now $15.99 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.93 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.21–$16.65
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.48–$17.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−31.6%−31.6%+0.4%
2008-09-30−28.5%−31.9%+0.0%
2008-09-25−28.3%−28.3%+0.6%
3 best
2011-02-23+41.4%+0.0%+42.8%
2011-02-28+39.8%+0.0%+39.8%
2011-02-25+39.4%+0.0%+40.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Feb
35%
−1.4%
n=20
Mar
50%
+2.6%
n=20
Apr
55%
+1.7%
n=20
May
40%
−1.7%
n=20
Jun
55%
−1.3%
n=20
Jul
45%
+1.0%
n=20
Aug
20%
−3.3%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.1%
n=20
Oct
45%
+0.1%
n=20
Nov
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$16↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-07-11Brown Brett AofficerSale5,356 @ $18.55$99K−100.0% of holding−7.2%−25.6%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-12STACK GEOFFREY LdirectorSale2,500 @ $15.60$39K−3.6% of holding+4.9%+6.6%67,544Form 4 · filed 29 days after the trade
2024-12-10STACK GEOFFREY LdirectorSale2,500 @ $16.00$40K−3.4% of holding−1.2%+1.6%70,044Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-09STACK GEOFFREY LdirectorSale2,500 @ $16.15$40K−3.2% of holding−1.6%+2.1%75,044Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-09STACK GEOFFREY LdirectorSale2,500 @ $16.10$40K−3.3% of holding−1.6%+2.1%72,544Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-28McMahon Hugh F. IVofficerAward / grant2,87691,200Form 4
2026-07-28Velasquez Robert DofficerAward / grant2,85451,422Form 4
2026-07-28Houston Michael R.W.officerAward / grant2,80817,472Form 4
2026-07-28Velasquez Robert DofficerWithheld for tax1,45849,964Form 4
2026-07-28McMahon Hugh F. IVofficerWithheld for tax1,38589,815Form 4
2026-07-28Houston Michael R.W.officerWithheld for tax1,11916,353Form 4
2026-07-14TISCH DANIEL RdirectorAward / grant1,78789,761Form 4
2026-07-14SPERON ERIC H.directorAward / grant1,5877,810Form 4
2026-07-14McCall Jeffrey JosephdirectorAward / grant1,58711,298Form 4
2026-07-14Betts Steven A.directorAward / grant1,32052,018Form 4
2026-07-14METCALFE NORMAN JdirectorAward / grant1,25392,124Form 4
2026-07-14Leggio Anthony L.directorAward / grant1,11958,518Form 4
2026-07-14Bielli Gregory S.directorAward / grant918449,336Form 4
2026-07-14Gammon Denise AdirectorAward / grant9186,477Form 4
2026-07-14Dakos AndrewdirectorAward / grant91836,367Form 4
2026-07-14Yee KennethdirectorAward / grant5655,770Form 4
2026-04-07TISCH DANIEL RdirectorAward / grant1,77687,974Form 4
2026-04-07McCall Jeffrey JosephdirectorAward / grant1,5779,711Form 4
2026-04-07SPERON ERIC H.directorAward / grant1,5776,223Form 4
2026-04-07Betts Steven A.directorAward / grant1,31250,698Form 4
2026-04-07METCALFE NORMAN JdirectorAward / grant1,24590,871Form 4
2026-04-07Leggio Anthony L.directorAward / grant1,11357,399Form 4
2026-04-07Dakos AndrewdirectorAward / grant91335,449Form 4
2026-04-07Yee KennethdirectorAward / grant9135,205Form 4
2026-04-07Bielli Gregory S.directorAward / grant913448,418Form 4
2026-04-07Gammon Denise AdirectorAward / grant9135,559Form 4
2026-03-31Walker Matthew H.officerAward / grant32,43532,435Form 4
2026-03-31Walker Matthew H.officerWithheld for tax13,50918,926Form 4
2026-03-24McMahon Hugh F. IVofficerAward / grant26,042101,188Form 4
2026-03-24Houston Michael R.W.officerAward / grant20,47323,205Form 4
2026-03-24Velasquez Robert DofficerAward / grant17,22158,127Form 4
2026-03-24McMahon Hugh F. IVofficerWithheld for tax12,86488,324Form 4
2026-03-24Velasquez Robert DofficerWithheld for tax9,55948,568Form 4
2026-03-24Houston Michael R.W.officerWithheld for tax8,54114,664Form 4
2026-01-13McCall Jeffrey JosephdirectorAward / grant1,8358,134Form 4
2026-01-13Betts Steven A.directorAward / grant1,51849,386Form 4
2026-01-13METCALFE NORMAN JdirectorAward / grant1,43989,626Form 4
2026-01-13Leggio Anthony L.directorAward / grant1,28056,286Form 4
2026-01-13Gammon Denise AdirectorAward / grant1,0434,646Form 4
2026-01-13Bielli Gregory S.directorAward / grant1,043447,505Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.