TRAX · TickerCove

TRAXFirst Tracks Biotherapeutics IncHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.00 · now $39.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRAX has typically landed between $28.34 and $89.05 — a range of −27.3% to +128.3% from the issuance price $39.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

93 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-04-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$39 · 73% of range

$15.32 low$47.92 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Distribution ranges onlyiThis name has too little trading history to publish a calibrated probability, so we show its distribution ranges only — no directional call. Its record is still building.

No directional probability — ranges below.

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+4.6%

typical move · IQR 45.1%

−27.3%worst (p90)+128.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TRAX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $39 (+0.0%)
typical $40.78 (+4.6%)
middle 50% $31.97–$49.58
90% range $28.34–$89.05

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 93 windows spanning 2026-04-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-04-16	−33.5%	−33.5%	+0.0%
2026-04-29	−32.5%	−33.1%	+0.0%
2026-05-01	−27.9%	−29.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-06-26	+161.1%	+0.0%	+162.2%
2026-06-25	+156.8%	−2.1%	+156.8%
2026-06-29	+146.1%	+0.0%	+147.1%

93 overlapping windows · 2026-04-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Ware J. Anthony	director	Sale	39,265 @ $44.78	$1.8M	−71.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	15,660	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-20	EcoR1 Capital, LLC	director	Sale	4,705,575 @ $13.81	$65.0M	ownership Δ n/a	−14.0%	not yet — horizon still open	3,174,519	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

120 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Ware J. Anthony	director	Option exercise	39,265	54,925	Form 4
2026-09-02	Ware J. Anthony	director	Option exercise	10,694	0	Form 4
2026-09-02	Ware J. Anthony	director	Option exercise	28,571	0	Form 4
2026-08-15	Faga Daniel	director	Award / grant	193,575	440,485	Form 4
2026-08-15	Lizzul Paul F.	officer	Award / grant	60,492	137,651	Form 4
2026-08-15	STONE BENJAMIN	officer	Award / grant	60,492	137,651	Form 4
2026-08-02	Faga Daniel	director	Award / grant	193,576	387,156	Form 4
2026-08-02	STONE BENJAMIN	officer	Award / grant	60,492	77,159	Form 4
2026-08-02	Lizzul Paul F.	officer	Award / grant	60,492	77,159	Form 4
2026-06-15	Orwin John A	director	Option exercise	6,030	16,695	Form 4
2026-06-15	Orwin John A	director	Option exercise	6,030	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Schmid John P.	director	Option exercise	6,030	37,652	Form 4
2026-06-15	Schmid John P.	director	Option exercise	6,030	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Marquet Magda	director	Option exercise	6,030	15,960	Form 4
2026-06-15	Marquet Magda	director	Option exercise	6,030	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Ware J. Anthony	director	Option exercise	6,030	15,660	Form 4
2026-06-15	Ware J. Anthony	director	Option exercise	6,030	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Jain Rita	director	Option exercise	1,300	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Jain Rita	director	Option exercise	6,030	0	Form 4
2026-06-15	Jain Rita	director	Option exercise	7,330	19,194	Form 4
2026-06-15	FENTON DENNIS M	director	Option exercise	6,030	10,995	Form 4
2026-06-15	FENTON DENNIS M	director	Option exercise	6,030	0	Form 4
2026-05-12	FENTON DENNIS M	director	Award / grant	42,000	42,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Faga Daniel	director	Award / grant	100,200	100,200	Form 4
2026-05-12	Faga Daniel	director	Award / grant	271,100	271,100	Form 4
2026-05-12	STONE BENJAMIN	officer	Award / grant	26,700	26,700	Form 4
2026-05-12	STONE BENJAMIN	officer	Award / grant	72,300	72,300	Form 4
2026-05-12	FENTON DENNIS M	director	Award / grant	15,000	15,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Marquet Magda	director	Award / grant	42,000	42,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Lizzul Paul F.	officer	Award / grant	26,700	26,700	Form 4
2026-05-12	Lizzul Paul F.	officer	Award / grant	72,300	72,300	Form 4
2026-05-12	Marquet Magda	director	Award / grant	15,000	15,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Tamboli Ajim	officer	Award / grant	13,600	13,600	Form 4
2026-05-12	Tamboli Ajim	officer	Award / grant	5,000	5,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Schmid John P.	director	Award / grant	15,000	15,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Schmid John P.	director	Award / grant	42,000	42,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Ware J. Anthony	director	Award / grant	15,000	15,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Ware J. Anthony	director	Award / grant	42,000	42,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Jain Rita	director	Award / grant	15,000	15,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Jain Rita	director	Award / grant	42,000	42,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.