Issued 2026-09-16 at $117.94 · now $117.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TPR has typically landed between $99.46 and $142.95 — a range of −15.7% to +21.2% from the issuance price $117.94.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($117.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TPR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $117.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $117.94 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $120.57 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $110.49–$130.66
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $99.46–$142.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −61.6% | −61.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −59.6% | −59.6% | +1.3% |
| 2020-02-20 | −57.6% | −59.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-07 | +53.1% | +0.0% | +53.1% |
| 2009-03-05 | +51.8% | −4.6% | +51.8% |
| 2009-03-06 | +51.3% | −0.7% | +58.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$28.8B
market cap
$3.12
EPS (TTM)
45.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-13
next earnings
Revenue$7.0B
'20'25
Net income$183M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr21.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr4.55
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$34.58
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$74.32
- Analyst target · range $164.00–$230.00$170.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$117.94
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
68%
+5.9%
n=19
Mar
47%
−2.2%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.1%
n=19
May
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Jul
58%
+0.1%
n=19
Aug
37%
−3.8%
n=19
Sep
37%
+1.3%
n=19
Oct
56%
+3.2%
n=18
Nov
78%
+6.8%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.6%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Sale | 3,619 @ $115.36 | $417K | −14.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,136 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Sale | 2,191 @ $115.40 | $253K | −8.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Sale | 14,720 @ $132.47 | $1.9M | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 666,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Sale | 13,041 @ $132.47 | $1.7M | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 680,869 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Kahn Todd | officer | Sale | 19,557 @ $140.02 | $2.7M | −13.7% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,258 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Sale | 14,729 @ $132.88 | $2.0M | −2.2% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 652,434 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Sale | 13,047 @ $132.90 | $1.7M | −1.9% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 667,163 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Sale | 975 @ $156.05 | $152K | −5.3% of holding | −2.8% | −33.3% | 17,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Sale | 20,372 @ $154.99 | $3.2M | −2.9% of holding | −3.8% | −27.2% | 671,193 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Sale | 15,123 @ $154.78 | $2.3M | −2.1% of holding | −3.8% | −27.2% | 708,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Sale | 13,300 @ $154.79 | $2.1M | −1.8% of holding | −3.8% | −27.2% | 723,680 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Greco Thomas | director | Sale | 5,276 @ $154.44 | $815K | −19.9% of holding | −5.4% | −26.5% | 21,302 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Greco Thomas | director | Sale | 4,942 @ $154.44 | $763K | −15.7% of holding | −5.4% | −26.5% | 26,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Greco Thomas | director | Sale | 4,027 @ $154.44 | $622K | −11.3% of holding | −5.4% | −26.5% | 31,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Sale | 2,032 @ $153.45 | $312K | −9.9% of holding | −3.6% | −29.5% | 18,475 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Sale | 115 @ $153.75 | $18K | −0.6% of holding | −3.6% | −29.5% | 20,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Sale | 19,092 @ $152.64 | $2.9M | −12.1% of holding | −2.8% | −11.3% | 139,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $152.61 | $2.3M | −8.7% of holding | −2.8% | −11.3% | 158,220 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Sale | 10,198 @ $152.60 | $1.6M | −5.6% of holding | −2.8% | −11.3% | 173,220 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Gates Anne | director | Sale | 6,498 @ $153.79 | $999K | −22.3% of holding | −2.8% | −11.3% | 22,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Sale | 5,937 @ $155.62 | $924K | −18.1% of holding | −2.8% | −11.3% | 26,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Sale | 3,229 @ $155.62 | $502K | −8.1% of holding | −2.8% | −11.3% | 36,560 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Kahn Todd | officer | Sale | 26,281 @ $151.00 | $4.0M | −17.9% of holding | −3.2% | −7.2% | 120,578 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Kahn Todd | officer | Sale | 13,534 @ $152.00 | $2.1M | −7.6% of holding | −3.2% | −7.2% | 164,199 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Sale | 583 @ $115.17 | $67K | −2.9% of holding | +14.8% | +15.0% | 19,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Sale | 1,096 @ $110.19 | $121K | −5.5% of holding | +16.7% | +13.9% | 18,682 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Sale | 575 @ $110.20 | $63K | −2.7% of holding | +16.7% | +13.9% | 20,389 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Kahn Todd | officer | Sale | 10,344 @ $107.00 | $1.1M | −7.3% of holding | +20.1% | +25.0% | 131,815 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Sale | 31,735 @ $105.31 | $3.3M | −4.5% of holding | +18.7% | +18.2% | 667,233 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Sale | 18,794 @ $104.85 | $2.0M | −11.3% of holding | +18.7% | +18.2% | 148,149 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Kahn Todd | officer | Sale | 29,000 @ $102.83 | $3.0M | −25.1% of holding | +19.4% | +22.4% | 86,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Howard David E | officer | Sale | 13,856 @ $102.50 | $1.4M | −20.0% of holding | +19.4% | +22.4% | 55,354 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Howard David E | officer | Sale | 11,173 @ $102.50 | $1.1M | −13.9% of holding | +19.4% | +22.4% | 69,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Lau Alan Ka Ming | director | Sale | 7,649 @ $106.23 | $813K | −48.4% of holding | +1.7% | +32.5% | 8,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Lau Alan Ka Ming | director | Sale | 3,671 @ $106.12 | $390K | −18.9% of holding | +1.7% | +32.5% | 15,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Sale | 7,882 @ $99.05 | $781K | −27.2% of holding | +12.4% | +52.0% | 21,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Sale | 269 @ $84.42 | $23K | −0.7% of holding | −4.1% | +6.0% | 36,221 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Kahn Todd | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $81.40 | $3.3M | −25.6% of holding | −3.8% | +11.8% | 116,062 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-12 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Sale | 665 @ $81.90 | $54K | −1.6% of holding | −3.8% | +11.8% | 40,922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Sale | 468 @ $81.87 | $38K | −1.1% of holding | −3.8% | +11.8% | 41,587 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Sale | 266 @ $81.85 | $22K | −0.6% of holding | −3.8% | +11.8% | 42,055 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Kahn Todd | officer | Sale | 21,107 @ $85.41 | $1.8M | −11.9% of holding | −11.3% | +8.3% | 155,878 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-25 | Kahn Todd | officer | Sale | 21,107 @ $84.00 | $1.8M | −10.7% of holding | −7.9% | +11.7% | 176,985 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Kahn Todd | officer | Sale | 7,786 @ $87.59 | $682K | −3.7% of holding | −6.1% | +10.7% | 201,531 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Sale | 14,297 @ $86.56 | $1.2M | −8.9% of holding | −7.8% | +10.0% | 146,587 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Howard David E | officer | Sale | 11,917 @ $88.00 | $1.0M | −23.6% of holding | −7.8% | +10.0% | 38,609 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Sale | 11,430 @ $86.57 | $989K | −6.6% of holding | −7.8% | +10.0% | 160,884 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
214 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,719 | 16,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Option exercise | 6,910 | 26,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Option exercise | 6,910 | 13,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Withheld for tax | 112,790 | 719,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Award / grant | 220,940 | 848,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 45,819 | 99,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Kahn Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 33,837 | 122,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 82,854 | 151,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Kahn Todd | officer | Award / grant | 66,282 | 160,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Howard David E | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,100 | 38,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Withheld for tax | 8,112 | 832,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Withheld for tax | 8,001 | 840,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Howard David E | officer | Award / grant | 27,619 | 56,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,296 | 145,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,817 | 148,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Kahn Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,434 | 156,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Howard David E | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,029 | 52,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Kahn Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,001 | 158,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Howard David E | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,601 | 54,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,099 | 16,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 976 | 17,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Withheld for tax | 21,050 | 627,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Withheld for tax | 17,250 | 648,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Withheld for tax | 6,512 | 693,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Option exercise | 35,770 | 670,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Option exercise | 30,291 | 700,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Howard David E | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,256 | 28,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,646 | 68,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kahn Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,955 | 94,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Howard David E | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,628 | 31,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,086 | 20,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 882 | 18,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Option exercise | 30,291 | 30,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Option exercise | 35,770 | 35,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Crevoiserat Joanne C. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,557 | 634,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roe Scott A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,402 | 71,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Kahn Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,294 | 96,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Howard David E | officer | Withheld for tax | 488 | 33,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Kulikowsky Denise | officer | Withheld for tax | 404 | 21,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Dadlani Manesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 298 | 19,018 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $15–50K |
| Terri A. Sewell | House | sale | 2026-04-21 | 2026-03-25 | $15–50K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-07-29 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2024-11-26 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-12-09 | 2025-11-14 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-22 | $100–250K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-27 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-26 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-27 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-22 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-27 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.