Issued 2026-09-16 at $348.57 · now $348.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TPL has typically landed between $288.73 and $442.09 — a range of −17.2% to +26.8% from the issuance price $348.57.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($348.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TPL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $348.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $348.57 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $349.56 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $319.59–$379.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $288.73–$442.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −58.4% | −58.4% | +2.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −53.7% | −59.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +64.8% | −0.8% | +72.2% |
| 2009-03-09 | +63.0% | +0.0% | +75.6% |
| 2020-03-23 | +61.9% | +0.0% | +73.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$28.9B
market cap
$7.29
EPS (TTM)
57.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$798M
'20'25
Net income$481M
'20'25
Free cash flow$486M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr60.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr33.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.02
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$332.69
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$147.85
- Analyst target · range $639.00–$639.00$639.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$348.57
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+3.3%
n=18
Feb
79%
+9.9%
n=19
Mar
58%
+4.3%
n=19
Apr
74%
+5.3%
n=19
May
53%
+3.3%
n=19
Jun
53%
+2.9%
n=19
Jul
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Aug
58%
+2.9%
n=19
Sep
42%
+0.9%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
56%
+3.4%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.9%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $370.59 | $371 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,390,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $371.73 | $372 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,390,846 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $367.88 | $368 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,390,845 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $366.18 | $366 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,390,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $378.57 | $379 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,390,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $375.10 | $375 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,390,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $360.03 | $360 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,390,841 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $367.61 | $368 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,390,840 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $363.20 | $363 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,242,744 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $369.10 | $369 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,242,743 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $369.47 | $369 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,021 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $364.42 | $364 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,020 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $365.74 | $366 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $375.00 | $375 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $372.58 | $373 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,017 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $377.39 | $377 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $381.51 | $382 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,015 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $377.85 | $378 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $372.10 | $372 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $361.16 | $361 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $357.32 | $357 | +0.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $357.56 | $358 | +0.0% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,010 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $343.02 | $343 | +0.0% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $353.15 | $353 | +0.0% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $352.62 | $353 | +0.0% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $345.10 | $345 | +0.0% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,006 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $353.28 | $353 | +0.0% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,005 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $355.62 | $356 | +0.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,004 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $385.95 | $386 | +0.0% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $403.53 | $404 | +0.0% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $392.66 | $393 | +0.0% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,244,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $400.09 | $400 | +0.0% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,688 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $389.14 | $389 | +0.0% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $394.14 | $394 | +0.0% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,686 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $393.09 | $393 | +0.0% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $409.31 | $409 | +0.0% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $423.94 | $424 | +0.0% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,683 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $429.51 | $430 | +0.0% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,682 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $427.42 | $427 | +0.0% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $413.48 | $413 | +0.0% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,680 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $416.47 | $416 | +0.0% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $420.15 | $420 | +0.0% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,678 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $416.05 | $416 | +0.0% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $414.13 | $414 | +0.0% of holding | −19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $408.37 | $408 | +0.0% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,675 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $411.10 | $411 | +0.0% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,674 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $385.84 | $386 | +0.0% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,673 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $400.13 | $400 | +0.0% of holding | −15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $397.47 | $397 | +0.0% of holding | −13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $400.67 | $401 | +0.0% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $408.89 | $409 | +0.0% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $402.64 | $403 | +0.0% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,668 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $426.00 | $426 | +0.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,263,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $435.74 | $436 | +0.0% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,393,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $410.88 | $411 | +0.0% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,393,562 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $397.48 | $397 | +0.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,393,561 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $388.58 | $389 | +0.0% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,393,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $374.10 | $374 | +0.0% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,393,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $370.60 | $371 | +0.0% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,393,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1 @ $351.33 | $351 | +0.0% of holding | +19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,393,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 1 | 3,395,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 1 | 3,395,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | DOYLE PETER | director | Award / grant | 254 | 147,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Withheld for tax | 688 | 44,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | STEDDUM CHRIS | officer | Withheld for tax | 376 | 16,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Dobbs Micheal W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 202 | 7,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE | officer | Withheld for tax | 113 | 3,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Dobbs Micheal W. | officer | Award / grant | 1,631 | 1,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Dobbs Micheal W. | officer | Option exercise | 456 | 912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | STEDDUM CHRIS | officer | Award / grant | 2,753 | 2,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | STEDDUM CHRIS | officer | Option exercise | 795 | 1,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Award / grant | 5,726 | 5,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Option exercise | 1,626 | 3,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE | officer | Award / grant | 938 | 938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE | officer | Option exercise | 255 | 516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | STEDDUM CHRIS | officer | Option exercise | 795 | 16,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Dobbs Micheal W. | officer | Option exercise | 456 | 8,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Dobbs Micheal W. | officer | Option exercise | 456 | 8,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | STEDDUM CHRIS | officer | Option exercise | 795 | 16,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Option exercise | 1,626 | 44,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE | officer | Option exercise | 255 | 3,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Option exercise | 1,626 | 44,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE | officer | Option exercise | 255 | 3,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Withheld for tax | 1,612 | 43,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | STEDDUM CHRIS | officer | Withheld for tax | 984 | 15,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dobbs Micheal W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 534 | 7,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE | officer | Withheld for tax | 383 | 3,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dobbs Micheal W. | officer | Option exercise | 1,206 | 1,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | STEDDUM CHRIS | officer | Option exercise | 2,079 | 2,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Option exercise | 3,807 | 3,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE | officer | Option exercise | 864 | 864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | STEDDUM CHRIS | officer | Option exercise | 2,079 | 16,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dobbs Micheal W. | officer | Option exercise | 1,206 | 8,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dobbs Micheal W. | officer | Option exercise | 1,206 | 8,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Option exercise | 3,807 | 44,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | STEDDUM CHRIS | officer | Option exercise | 2,079 | 16,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE | officer | Option exercise | 864 | 3,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Option exercise | 3,807 | 44,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE | officer | Option exercise | 864 | 3,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | GLOVER TYLER | director | Withheld for tax | 5,643 | 41,038 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-13 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-22 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.