TPGTPG Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.55 · now $46.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TPG has typically landed between $38.97 and $56.00 — a range of −16.3% to +20.3% from the issuance price $46.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,151 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-01-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TPG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$38.97worst · -16.3%$56best · +20.3%
  • now $46.55 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $47.33 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $43.63–$51.02
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $38.97–$56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,151 windows spanning 2022-01-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-01-22−31.9%−31.9%+0.0%
2026-01-15−30.3%−30.3%+0.0%
2026-01-23−30.1%−31.2%+0.0%
3 best
2022-10-13+42.4%−7.4%+42.4%
2022-10-12+41.8%−5.3%+41.8%
2022-10-14+39.6%−1.6%+51.4%

1,151 overlapping windows · 2022-01-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+2.9%
n=4
Feb
40%
−7.9%
n=5
Mar
20%
−6.6%
n=5
Apr
20%
−3.0%
n=5
May
40%
+1.6%
n=5
Jun
40%
−0.3%
n=5
Jul
100%
+11.9%
n=5
Aug
60%
+6.2%
n=5
Sep
40%
−0.6%
n=5
Oct
50%
+3.9%
n=4
Nov
100%
+12.4%
n=4
Dec
50%
+1.2%
n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$68$37↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-07-16MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorSale1,796 @ $56.32$101K−9.7% of holding+10.5%+7.5%16,807Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-22Holloway SamanthaotherSale21,000,000 @ $46.57$978.0M−100.0% of holding+6.5%+6.8%0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-03-19Berenson BradfordofficerSale2,509 @ $50.04$126K−0.9% of holding−6.9%+10.9%290,841Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Berenson BradfordofficerSale2,598 @ $50.32$131K−0.9% of holding−9.0%+6.1%293,350Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-14MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorSale1,695 @ $61.91$105K−9.7% of holding−12.0%−17.1%15,841Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

209 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Andre AxelofficerAward / grant164,908164,908Form 4
2026-08-17Andre AxelofficerAward / grant164,908168,908Form 4
2026-08-17Andre AxelofficerAward / grant164,908168,908Form 4
2026-08-17Andre AxelofficerAward / grant164,908168,908Form 4
2026-08-17Andre AxelofficerAward / grant164,908168,908Form 4
2026-08-05WINKELRIED JONdirectorAward / grant3574,025,525Form 4
2026-08-05WINKELRIED JONdirectorAward / grant1792,011,528Form 4
2026-08-05COULTER JAMES GdirectorAward / grant3,57735,644,619Form 4
2026-08-05Davidson MartinofficerAward / grant60633,263Form 4
2026-08-05Davis Kelvin L.directorAward / grant441,665Form 4
2026-08-05Davis Kelvin L.directorAward / grant1,20211,604,029Form 4
2026-08-05Harris JoannofficerAward / grant38412,200Form 4
2026-08-05Raj NehaldirectorAward / grant3823,432,583Form 4
2026-08-05Rhodes Jeffrey K.directorAward / grant6206,311,101Form 4
2026-08-05Sarvananthan GanendrandirectorAward / grant2631,424,627Form 4
2026-08-05Sisitsky Todd BenjamindirectorAward / grant98410,379,227Form 4
2026-08-05Sisitsky Todd BenjamindirectorAward / grant98478,786Form 4
2026-08-05Trujillo DaviddirectorAward / grant6306,582,823Form 4
2026-08-05Vazquez-Ubarri AniludirectorAward / grant1551,607,936Form 4
2026-08-05WINKELRIED JONdirectorAward / grant1,15211,552,294Form 4
2026-07-15COULTER JAMES GdirectorWithheld for tax40,950836,579Form 4
2026-07-15Elsesser KathydirectorAward / grant4,18112,693Form 4
2026-07-15Bright GuntherdirectorAward / grant4,18142,487Form 4
2026-07-15MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorAward / grant4,18120,988Form 4
2026-07-15CRANSTON MARY BdirectorAward / grant4,18134,958Form 4
2026-07-15Elsesser KathydirectorAward / grant4,18112,693Form 4
2026-07-15MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorAward / grant4,18120,988Form 4
2026-07-15McRaven William H.directorAward / grant4,18111,615Form 4
2026-07-15Bright GuntherdirectorAward / grant4,18142,487Form 4
2026-07-15CRANSTON MARY BdirectorAward / grant4,18134,958Form 4
2026-07-15McRaven William H.directorAward / grant4,18111,615Form 4
2026-06-16Davis Kelvin L.directorOther acquisition41,66141,661Form 4
2026-05-12McRaven William H.directorAward / grant7,4347,434Form 4
2026-05-12McRaven William H.directorAward / grant7,4347,434Form 4
2026-04-14Chu Jennifer L.officerWithheld for tax19,679177,295Form 4
2026-04-14Trujillo DaviddirectorWithheld for tax8,379237,297Form 4
2026-04-01Chu Jennifer L.officerWithheld for tax22,079196,974Form 4
2026-02-11Sisitsky Todd BenjamindirectorAward / grant5,760478,688Form 4
2026-02-11COULTER JAMES GdirectorAward / grant210,46435,641,042Form 4
2026-02-11Davidson MartinofficerAward / grant3,514633,203Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.