TPCTutor Perini CorporationIndustrials · Engineering & Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $85.85 · now $85.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TPC has typically landed between $70.55 and $108.54 — a range of −17.8% to +26.4% from the issuance price $85.85.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($85.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TPC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $85.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$70.55worst · -17.8%$108.54best · +26.4%
  • now $85.85 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $88.8 (+3.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $79.86–$97.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $70.55–$108.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-14−75.8%−75.8%+24.3%
2020-02-13−55.2%−55.2%+25.5%
2020-03-03−54.1%−79.2%+6.7%
3 best
2020-05-06+110.9%+0.0%+110.9%
2020-05-05+101.9%−0.6%+101.9%
2020-03-17+98.3%+0.0%+146.6%

5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
+1.5%
n=20
Feb
70%
+4.3%
n=20
Mar
60%
−0.4%
n=20
Apr
50%
+2.6%
n=20
May
55%
+7.3%
n=20
Jun
50%
+1.8%
n=20
Jul
55%
+0.1%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.9%
n=20
Sep
40%
−0.3%
n=20
Oct
60%
+2.7%
n=20
Nov
65%
+5.9%
n=20
Dec
45%
−2.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$99$562026-08-31: 3 insider sales, $197.7M — TUTOR RONALD N …2026-08-27: 2 insider sales, $1.2M — REISS DALE ANNE …2026-08-07: 4 insider sales, $17.9M — FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J …2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Lieber Robert C2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $743K — Lieber Robert C2026-03-06: 2 insider purchases, $593K — ARKLEY PETER …2026-03-05: 1 insider purchase, $797K — ARKLEY PETER2026-03-04: 4 insider purchases, $1.2M — SMALLEY GARY G., ARKLEY PETER …2025-11-25: 2 insider purchases, $975K — ARKLEY PETER …2025-11-24: 1 insider purchase, $1.6M — ARKLEY PETER2025-11-19: 2 insider purchases, $305K — SMALLEY GARY G. …2025-09-18: 3 insider sales, $13.6M — TUTOR RONALD N, FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J …2025-09-17: 3 insider sales, $7.5M — TUTOR RONALD N, FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J …2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — TUTOR RONALD N2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $4.8M — TUTOR RONALD N2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $6.3M — TUTOR RONALD N2025-08-25: 2 insider sales, $5.2M — TUTOR RONALD N …2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $4.7M — TUTOR RONALD N2025-08: 5 open-market sales, $21.1M2025-09: 7 open-market sales, $23.8M2025-11: 5 open-market purchases, $2.9M2026-03: 7 open-market purchases, $2.6M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-08: 9 open-market sales, $216.8M↑ buys↓ salesdirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector REISS DALE ANNE — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector REISS DALE ANNE — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lieber Robert C — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lieber Robert C — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ARKLEY PETER — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed same daydirector ARKLEY PETER — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed same daydirector ARKLEY PETER — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMALLEY GARY G. — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ARKLEY PETER — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMALLEY GARY G. — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMALLEY GARY G. — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ARKLEY PETER — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector ARKLEY PETER — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector ARKLEY PETER — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMALLEY GARY G. — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SMALLEY GARY G. — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY J — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed same daydirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TUTOR RONALD N — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale1,500,000 @ $85.57$128.4M−36.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,634,967Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale800,000 @ $85.57$68.5M−52.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open733,255Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale10,000 @ $89.86$899K−1.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open701,477Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-27REISS DALE ANNEdirectorSale7,400 @ $92.02$681K−11.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open57,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-27REISS DALE ANNEdirectorSale6,000 @ $92.07$552K−16.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open31,203Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY JdirectorSale62,482 @ $98.18$6.1M−90.3% of holding−8.7%not yet — horizon still open6,700Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY JdirectorSale52,579 @ $96.26$5.1M−33.2% of holding−8.7%not yet — horizon still open105,669Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY JdirectorSale36,487 @ $97.50$3.6M−34.5% of holding−8.7%not yet — horizon still open69,182Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY JdirectorSale32,661 @ $95.66$3.1M−17.1% of holding−8.7%not yet — horizon still open158,248Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-27Lieber Robert CdirectorSale17,500 @ $75.36$1.3M−10.5% of holding+9.4%not yet — horizon still open149,410Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Lieber Robert CdirectorSale10,000 @ $74.25$743K−5.7% of holding+2.2%not yet — horizon still open164,573Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06ARKLEY PETERdirectorPurchase4,913 @ $72.85$358K+2.4% of holding+7.9%+6.2%213,513Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06ARKLEY PETERdirectorPurchase3,204 @ $73.28$235K+1.5% of holding+7.9%+6.2%216,717Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-05ARKLEY PETERdirectorPurchase10,999 @ $72.44$797K+5.6% of holding+12.3%+8.9%208,600Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04SMALLEY GARY G.directorPurchase8,435 @ $73.57$621K+10.2% of holding+9.0%+7.0%91,414Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04ARKLEY PETERdirectorPurchase5,884 @ $73.85$435K+3.1% of holding+9.0%+7.0%197,601Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04SMALLEY GARY G.directorPurchase1,500 @ $71.32$107K+1.8% of holding+9.0%+7.0%82,979Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04SMALLEY GARY G.directorPurchase65 @ $74.30$5K+0.1% of holding+9.0%+7.0%91,479Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25ARKLEY PETERdirectorPurchase8,898 @ $64.05$570K+5.0% of holding+3.5%−2.7%185,468Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25ARKLEY PETERdirectorPurchase6,249 @ $64.88$405K+3.4% of holding+3.5%−2.7%191,717Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24ARKLEY PETERdirectorPurchase24,853 @ $63.96$1.6M+16.4% of holding+4.2%+1.3%176,570Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19SMALLEY GARY G.directorPurchase4,900 @ $61.06$299K+4.3% of holding+13.5%+8.2%117,975Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19SMALLEY GARY G.directorPurchase100 @ $61.95$6K+0.1% of holding+13.5%+8.2%118,075Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-18TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale83,144 @ $64.94$5.4M−2.0% of holding−3.6%+6.1%4,062,985Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-18FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY JdirectorSale80,687 @ $66.22$5.3M−30.1% of holding−3.6%+6.1%187,274Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-18FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY JdirectorSale43,981 @ $65.48$2.9M−14.1% of holding−3.6%+6.1%267,961Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale77,819 @ $64.03$5.0M−1.8% of holding+0.4%+13.2%4,193,166Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-17TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale39,037 @ $64.56$2.5M−0.9% of holding+0.4%+13.2%4,154,129Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-17FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY JdirectorSale332 @ $65.00$22K−0.1% of holding+0.4%+13.2%311,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale44,312 @ $59.13$2.6M−1.0% of holding+0.9%+14.1%4,270,985Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-28TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale80,660 @ $59.95$4.8M−1.8% of holding+6.6%+16.5%4,315,297Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-26TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale106,832 @ $59.06$6.3M−2.4% of holding+6.8%+44.2%4,395,957Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale68,196 @ $59.19$4.0M−1.5% of holding+7.5%+38.8%4,502,789Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale20,000 @ $59.18$1.2M−2.5% of holding+7.5%+38.8%771,477Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale80,000 @ $58.65$4.7M−9.2% of holding+10.8%+39.9%791,477Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-11TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale75,000 @ $41.18$3.1M−1.6% of holding+14.3%+46.8%4,626,463Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-11TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale55,478 @ $40.60$2.3M−1.2% of holding+14.3%+46.8%4,570,985Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-10TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale29,522 @ $40.51$1.2M−0.6% of holding+17.5%+56.0%4,701,463Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale100,000 @ $38.62$3.9M−2.1% of holding+20.1%+57.9%4,730,985Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02TUTOR RONALD NdirectorSale50,000 @ $37.45$1.9M−4.7% of holding+20.4%+60.2%1,011,477Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-15ONEGLIA RAYMOND RdirectorSale25,000 @ $36.14$904K−21.7% of holding+15.4%+49.6%90,470Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14ONEGLIA RAYMOND RdirectorSale75,000 @ $36.23$2.7M−39.4% of holding+15.1%+55.8%115,470Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

174 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28REISS DALE ANNEdirectorGift60057,178Form 4
2026-06-19Jensen William EofficerWithheld for tax14,05749,369Form 4
2026-06-19Ariqat GhassanofficerWithheld for tax13,33212,871Form 4
2026-06-19DIEU HENRYofficerWithheld for tax5222,488Form 4
2026-06-19Ariqat GhassanofficerOption exercise26,20352,406Form 4
2026-06-19DIEU HENRYofficerOption exercise1,1912,383Form 4
2026-06-19Jensen William EofficerOption exercise26,20352,406Form 4
2026-06-19Jensen William EofficerOption exercise26,20363,426Form 4
2026-06-19DIEU HENRYofficerOption exercise1,1913,010Form 4
2026-06-19Jensen William EofficerOption exercise26,20363,426Form 4
2026-06-19Ariqat GhassanofficerOption exercise26,20326,203Form 4
2026-06-19DIEU HENRYofficerOption exercise1,1913,010Form 4
2026-06-19Ariqat GhassanofficerOption exercise26,20326,203Form 4
2026-06-17OKLAK DENNIS DdirectorGift4,00083,488Form 4
2026-06-17OKLAK DENNIS DdirectorGift8,00087,488Form 4
2026-05-27Lieber Robert CdirectorGift7,500141,910Form 4
2026-05-20OKLAK DENNIS DdirectorAward / grant2,33795,488Form 4
2026-05-20Shah ShahrokhdirectorAward / grant2,33714,397Form 4
2026-05-20Jensen William EofficerAward / grant11,70211,702Form 4
2026-05-20Jigisha DesaidirectorAward / grant3,99283,092Form 4
2026-05-20ARKLEY PETERdirectorAward / grant2,337219,054Form 4
2026-05-20SMALLEY GARY G.directorAward / grant40,22640,226Form 4
2026-05-20SOROKA RYAN JOSEPHofficerAward / grant10,97110,971Form 4
2026-05-20Ariqat GhassanofficerAward / grant11,70211,702Form 4
2026-05-20Assouri Kristiyan DofficerAward / grant10,97110,971Form 4
2026-05-20DIEU HENRYofficerAward / grant5,4855,485Form 4
2026-05-20ONEGLIA RAYMOND RdirectorAward / grant2,33797,208Form 4
2026-05-20REISS DALE ANNEdirectorGift36,3400Form 4
2026-05-20REISS DALE ANNEdirectorGift36,34065,178Form 4
2026-05-20FELTENSTEIN SIDNEY JdirectorAward / grant3,635190,909Form 4
2026-05-20REISS DALE ANNEdirectorAward / grant2,33728,838Form 4
2026-05-20Lieber Robert CdirectorAward / grant2,337166,910Form 4
2026-03-14Jensen William EofficerDisposition6,47937,223Form 4
2026-03-14Jensen William EofficerOption exercise6,47912,960Form 4
2026-03-14Jensen William EofficerOption exercise6,47943,702Form 4
2026-03-14Jensen William EofficerOption exercise6,47943,702Form 4
2026-03-13TUTOR RONALD NdirectorDisposition152,9320Form 4
2026-03-13SMALLEY GARY G.directorDisposition57,34991,479Form 4
2026-03-13SOROKA RYAN JOSEPHofficerDisposition4,77942,883Form 4
2026-03-13TUTOR RONALD NdirectorOption exercise152,932152,931Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.