TPBTurning Point Brands, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Tobaccoas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $70.12 · now $70.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TPB has typically landed between $59.01 and $83.80 — a range of −15.8% to +19.5% from the issuance price $70.12.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,581 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-05-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($70.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TPB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $70.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$59.01worst · -15.8%$83.8best · +19.5%
  • now $70.12 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $70.66 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $65.25–$76.06
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $59.01–$83.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,581 windows spanning 2016-05-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-25−40.8%−40.8%+0.0%
2026-02-26−39.8%−40.3%+0.0%
2016-05-17−39.4%−39.4%+0.0%
3 best
2016-08-10+69.3%+0.0%+72.6%
2016-06-16+60.6%+0.0%+60.6%
2016-06-17+51.3%+0.0%+58.6%

2,581 overlapping windows · 2016-05-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+3.9%
n=10
Feb
70%
+5.4%
n=10
Mar
50%
−3.4%
n=10
Apr
50%
+0.7%
n=10
May
70%
+6.0%
n=10
Jun
55%
+2.6%
n=11
Jul
64%
+3.7%
n=11
Aug
64%
+3.7%
n=11
Sep
18%
−4.3%
n=11
Oct
50%
+0.8%
n=10
Nov
60%
+7.6%
n=10
Dec
50%
+3.4%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$143$702026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $367K — Wigginton Brian2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $195K — Flynn Andrew2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $3.3M — Glazek David Edward2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $216K — Diao H.C. Charles2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $147K — Baxter Gregory H.A.2025-11-20: 1 insider sale, $103K — Usher Stephen2025-11-19: 5 insider sales, $1.4M — Cushman Brittani, Usher Stephen …2025-11-13: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Wexler Lawrence2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Wexler Lawrence2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Wexler Lawrence2025-11: 10 open-market sales, $6.3M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $3.5M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $195K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $367K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Wigginton Brian — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Flynn Andrew — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same daydirector Glazek David Edward — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Diao H.C. Charles — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Baxter Gregory H.A. — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed same daydirector Usher Stephen — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cushman Brittani — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cushman Brittani — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cushman Brittani — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cushman Brittani — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Usher Stephen — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Wexler Lawrence — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same daydirector Wexler Lawrence — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Wexler Lawrence — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-12Wigginton BrianofficerSale4,000 @ $91.67$367K−30.2% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open9,230Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Flynn AndrewofficerSale2,000 @ $97.57$195K−17.5% of holding−22.0%−33.4%9,443Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19Glazek David EdwarddirectorSale30,000 @ $110.26$3.3M−19.1% of holding+7.0%−30.6%127,083Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-15Diao H.C. CharlesdirectorSale2,000 @ $108.20$216K−16.9% of holding+5.7%−36.8%9,804Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-21Baxter Gregory H.A.directorSale1,500 @ $98.23$147K−3.7% of holding+5.2%−22.0%38,919Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-20Usher StephendirectorSale1,000 @ $102.54$103K−19.3% of holding+2.8%−24.3%4,175Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19Cushman BrittaniofficerSale4,000 @ $101.66$407K−10.3% of holding+4.2%−24.8%34,687Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Cushman BrittaniofficerSale3,250 @ $101.66$330K−8.6% of holding+4.2%−24.8%34,687Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Cushman BrittaniofficerSale3,000 @ $101.66$305K−8.0% of holding+4.2%−24.8%34,687Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Cushman BrittaniofficerSale2,500 @ $101.66$254K−6.7% of holding+4.2%−24.8%34,687Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Usher StephendirectorSale1,000 @ $101.00$101K−16.2% of holding+4.2%−24.8%5,175Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-13Wexler LawrencedirectorSale10,401 @ $99.03$1.0M−3.6% of holding+10.6%−19.4%280,368Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-12Wexler LawrencedirectorSale21,069 @ $100.02$2.1M−6.8% of holding+5.4%−19.3%290,765Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Wexler LawrencedirectorSale15,000 @ $99.89$1.5M−4.5% of holding+3.2%−19.2%315,186Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-17Wexler LawrencedirectorSale25,000 @ $75.94$1.9M−7.0% of holding−1.7%+32.9%330,186Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16Wigginton BrianofficerSale10,800 @ $75.67$817K−51.5% of holding−0.2%+31.5%10,171Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-12Purdy GrahamdirectorSale21,400 @ $74.89$1.6M−8.6% of holding+0.5%+23.9%227,466Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11Purdy GrahamdirectorSale30,000 @ $75.03$2.3M−11.7% of holding−4.5%+21.7%227,466Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10Cushman BrittaniofficerSale7,500 @ $74.36$558K−17.8% of holding−5.7%+25.3%34,687Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09Cushman BrittaniofficerSale7,500 @ $75.89$569K−17.8% of holding−7.4%+21.2%34,687Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-05Usher StephendirectorSale600 @ $75.25$45K−8.9% of holding−9.3%+16.2%6,175Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-04Wexler LawrencedirectorSale15,000 @ $74.61$1.1M−4.1% of holding−8.0%+15.0%355,186Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-09Baxter Gregory H.A.directorSale1,500 @ $73.64$110K−3.6% of holding−7.5%+19.3%40,419Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-08Wexler LawrencedirectorSale10,000 @ $76.56$766K−2.6% of holding−7.2%+13.4%370,247Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08Wigginton BrianofficerSale3,500 @ $75.75$265K−25.6% of holding−7.2%+13.4%10,171Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

157 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-11Wexler LawrencedirectorAward / grant1,295287,689Form 4
2026-05-11Baxter Gregory H.A.directorAward / grant1,29540,214Form 4
2026-05-11Shanahan Kathleen MdirectorAward / grant1,2952,353Form 4
2026-05-11Usher StephendirectorAward / grant1,2955,470Form 4
2026-05-11Reddy RohithdirectorAward / grant1,2956,795Form 4
2026-05-11Diao H.C. CharlesdirectorAward / grant1,29511,099Form 4
2026-05-11Frushone Ashley DavisdirectorAward / grant1,2958,794Form 4
2026-05-11Catsimatidis John A. JrdirectorAward / grant1,29514,768Form 4
2026-03-24Purdy GrahamdirectorAward / grant8,638265,983Form 4
2026-03-03Glazek David EdwarddirectorAward / grant4,535164,539Form 4
2026-03-03Purdy GrahamdirectorAward / grant4,535257,345Form 4
2026-03-03Flynn AndrewofficerAward / grant2,72111,443Form 4
2026-03-03Cushman BrittaniofficerAward / grant2,18147,410Form 4
2026-03-03Wigginton BrianofficerAward / grant2,04113,230Form 4
2026-03-02Purdy GrahamdirectorAward / grant44,494277,440Form 4
2026-03-02Glazek David EdwarddirectorAward / grant28,921156,004Form 4
2026-03-02Purdy GrahamdirectorWithheld for tax25,686261,100Form 4
2026-03-02Cushman BrittaniofficerAward / grant10,70050,231Form 4
2026-03-02Wexler LawrencedirectorAward / grant8,369288,860Form 4
2026-03-02Purdy GrahamdirectorWithheld for tax8,290252,810Form 4
2026-03-02Purdy GrahamdirectorAward / grant6,787284,227Form 4
2026-03-02Cushman BrittaniofficerWithheld for tax6,05746,421Form 4
2026-03-02Purdy GrahamdirectorAward / grant5,181232,279Form 4
2026-03-02Cushman BrittaniofficerAward / grant4,78238,863Form 4
2026-03-02Glazek David EdwarddirectorAward / grant4,412160,416Form 4
2026-03-02Wexler LawrencedirectorWithheld for tax3,393286,394Form 4
2026-03-02Purdy GrahamdirectorAward / grant2,559286,786Form 4
2026-03-02Wigginton BrianofficerAward / grant2,39112,363Form 4
2026-03-02Wigginton BrianofficerWithheld for tax2,30912,587Form 4
2026-03-02Glazek David EdwarddirectorWithheld for tax2,075160,004Form 4
2026-03-02Wigginton BrianofficerAward / grant1,75714,453Form 4
2026-03-02Glazek David EdwarddirectorAward / grant1,663162,079Form 4
2026-03-02Flynn AndrewofficerAward / grant1,64810,126Form 4
2026-03-02Cushman BrittaniofficerAward / grant1,63251,863Form 4
2026-03-02Wigginton BrianofficerWithheld for tax1,39811,189Form 4
2026-03-02Cushman BrittaniofficerWithheld for tax1,19245,229Form 4
2026-03-02Flynn AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,1248,722Form 4
2026-03-02Wexler LawrencedirectorAward / grant927289,787Form 4
2026-03-02Flynn AndrewofficerWithheld for tax9629,846Form 4
2026-03-02Flynn AndrewofficerAward / grant68210,808Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.