Issued 2026-09-16 at $31.12 · now $31.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TOST has typically landed between $24.14 and $39.38 — a range of −22.4% to +26.6% from the issuance price $31.12.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,230 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($31.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TOST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $31.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $31.12 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $30.92 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $27.67–$34.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.14–$39.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,230 windows spanning 2021-09-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-27 | −49.7% | −49.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-23 | −46.5% | −46.5% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-28 | −45.8% | −46.7% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-18 | +47.1% | −0.6% | +47.1% |
| 2024-10-25 | +45.8% | +0.0% | +45.8% |
| 2024-10-23 | +44.8% | +0.0% | +45.3% |
1,230 overlapping windows · 2021-09-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−2.6%
n=5
Feb
20%
−2.8%
n=5
Mar
40%
−1.8%
n=5
Apr
60%
−0.4%
n=5
May
60%
+2.9%
n=5
Jun
80%
+1.1%
n=5
Jul
80%
+9.8%
n=5
Aug
60%
+2.4%
n=5
Sep
20%
−8.2%
n=5
Oct
60%
+5.8%
n=5
Nov
20%
−1.8%
n=5
Dec
40%
−0.9%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 9,180 @ $34.09 | $313K | −11.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 5,100 @ $33.54 | $171K | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,146 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 85,280 @ $36.34 | $3.1M | −54.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 13,931 @ $36.01 | $502K | −16.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 13,797 @ $36.01 | $497K | −16.5% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 119,843 @ $35.38 | $4.2M | −100.0% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 5,761 @ $35.37 | $204K | −3.5% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 42,105 @ $35.13 | $1.5M | −26.0% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,843 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 2,163 @ $35.10 | $76K | −1.3% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 165,911 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 13,510 @ $35.02 | $473K | −7.7% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,948 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 900 @ $35.02 | $32K | −0.5% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 124,458 @ $35.29 | $4.4M | −41.5% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,542 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 15,976 @ $35.28 | $564K | −8.6% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,174 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,700 @ $36.02 | $169K | −6.3% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 200 @ $36.11 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 84 @ $36.11 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,458 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Niola Rossana | officer | Sale | 2,298 @ $33.45 | $77K | −34.8% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 14,280 @ $32.89 | $470K | −17.0% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $30.02 | $60K | −2.8% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 9,170 @ $30.19 | $277K | −11.6% of holding | +13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,150 @ $30.03 | $95K | −4.3% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 14,365 @ $28.85 | $414K | −16.9% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,451 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 11,605 @ $28.85 | $335K | −5.9% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 185,150 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Fredette Stephen | director | Sale | 9,146 @ $28.85 | $264K | −1.0% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 931,449 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 6,647 @ $28.85 | $192K | −8.7% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,966 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Elworthy Brian R | officer | Sale | 6,352 @ $28.85 | $183K | −3.1% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 196,909 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Elworthy Brian R | officer | Sale | 92,864 @ $25.85 | $2.4M | −31.2% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,778 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Elworthy Brian R | officer | Sale | 15,136 @ $26.15 | $396K | −7.4% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 13,463 @ $26.19 | $353K | −20.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 8,929 @ $26.19 | $234K | −4.9% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Fredette Stephen | director | Sale | 7,289 @ $26.19 | $191K | −0.8% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 920,985 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 6,438 @ $26.19 | $169K | −4.2% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,618 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Elworthy Brian R | officer | Sale | 3,664 @ $26.19 | $96K | −1.5% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 243,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Chapman-Hughes Susan | director | Sale | 8,500 @ $28.97 | $246K | −36.9% of holding | −5.0% | +1.0% | 14,530 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 1,648 @ $30.34 | $50K | −0.5% of holding | +9.2% | +11.0% | 340,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,454 @ $30.34 | $44K | −1.0% of holding | +9.2% | +11.0% | 139,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 1,437 @ $30.34 | $44K | −0.9% of holding | +9.2% | +11.0% | 164,629 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Fredette Stephen | director | Sale | 1,060 @ $30.34 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | +9.2% | +11.0% | 913,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Elworthy Brian R | officer | Sale | 648 @ $30.34 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | +9.2% | +11.0% | 237,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 8,591 @ $34.38 | $295K | −2.5% of holding | −17.7% | −26.1% | 338,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 6,672 @ $34.38 | $229K | −4.0% of holding | −17.7% | −26.1% | 162,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Fredette Stephen | director | Sale | 4,866 @ $34.38 | $167K | −0.5% of holding | −17.7% | −26.1% | 910,606 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,787 @ $34.38 | $165K | −5.7% of holding | −17.7% | −26.1% | 79,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Elworthy Brian R | officer | Sale | 3,303 @ $34.38 | $114K | −1.4% of holding | −17.7% | −26.1% | 235,757 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 66,390 @ $35.86 | $2.4M | −44.0% of holding | −17.9% | −23.0% | 84,589 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Gomez Elena | director | Sale | 2,021 @ $35.54 | $72K | −1.3% of holding | −2.6% | −26.5% | 151,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Fredette Stephen | director | Sale | 1,732 @ $35.54 | $62K | −0.2% of holding | −2.6% | −26.5% | 900,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Narang Aman | director | Sale | 1,732 @ $35.54 | $62K | −0.5% of holding | −2.6% | −26.5% | 319,939 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,442 @ $35.54 | $51K | −2.0% of holding | −2.6% | −26.5% | 71,424 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Elworthy Brian R | officer | Sale | 1,059 @ $35.54 | $38K | −0.5% of holding | −2.6% | −26.5% | 229,017 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
250 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 14,280 | 84,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 14,280 | 285,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 47,673 | 117,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 37,607 | 155,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 37,607 | 175,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 47,673 | 190,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 7,399 | 77,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,532 | 83,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 7,399 | 238,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,532 | 212,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 7,651 | 77,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,146 | 83,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,146 | 219,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 7,651 | 245,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 2,700 | 74,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 71,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 253,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 2,700 | 225,541 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 14,280 | 84,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 14,280 | 300,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Niola Rossana | officer | Option exercise | 6,604 | 46,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Niola Rossana | officer | Option exercise | 6,604 | 6,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Niola Rossana | officer | Option exercise | 6,604 | 6,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 71,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 314,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 9,170 | 79,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 9,170 | 316,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 3,150 | 73,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 3,150 | 325,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fredette Stephen | director | Option exercise | 3,859 | 42,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fredette Stephen | director | Option exercise | 5,651 | 39,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Narang Aman | director | Option exercise | 8,574 | 94,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fredette Stephen | director | Option exercise | 5,697 | 17,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Narang Aman | director | Option exercise | 12,597 | 88,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 1,100 | 16,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Vassil Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 4,986 | 34,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Narang Aman | director | Option exercise | 3,302 | 49,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Elworthy Brian R | officer | Option exercise | 2,572 | 28,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Narang Aman | director | Option exercise | 6,330 | 18,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Elworthy Brian R | officer | Option exercise | 3,481 | 10,446 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.