TONX · TickerCove

TONXTON Strategy Co.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.94 · now $2.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TONX has typically landed between $1.47 and $4.56 — a range of −50.0% to +54.9% from the issuance price $2.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,940 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-11-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$2.94 · 21% of range

$1.8 low$7.35 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−14.4%

typical move · IQR 33.5%

−50.0%worst (p90)+54.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TONX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $2.94 (+0.0%)
typical $2.52 (-14.4%)
middle 50% $2.03–$3.01
90% range $1.47–$4.56

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,940 windows spanning 2014-11-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2015-10-16	−96.5%	−96.5%	+0.0%
2015-10-15	−96.5%	−96.5%	+0.0%
2015-09-28	−96.3%	−96.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2018-01-24	+629.4%	+0.0%	+688.2%
2018-01-23	+566.7%	−5.6%	+644.4%
2018-01-18	+563.4%	−15.8%	+563.4%

2,940 overlapping windows · 2014-11-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+19.1%

n=12

Feb

42%

+17.9%

n=12

Mar

33%

+19.0%

n=12

Apr

33%

−7.9%

n=12

May

50%

+11.0%

n=12

Jun

17%

−7.4%

n=12

Jul

50%

+3.3%

n=12

Aug

50%

+2.0%

n=12

Sep

−14.7%

n=12

Oct

27%

−22.5%

n=11

Nov

36%

−9.4%

n=11

Dec

33%

−3.2%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-04	Rivard Bill John	officer	Sale	12,500 @ $3.30	$41K	−21.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	45,331	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Olsen Sarah Josephine	officer	Sale	217,450 @ $2.75	$599K	−14.2% of holding	+15.8%	not yet — horizon still open	1,310,490	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Wilson Kevin Mark	officer	Purchase	1,900 @ $2.67	$5K	+0.2% of holding	+15.8%	not yet — horizon still open	1,152,820	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-14	Wilson Kevin Mark	officer	Purchase	1,700 @ $2.68	$5K	+0.1% of holding	+15.8%	not yet — horizon still open	1,150,920	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13	Wilson Kevin Mark	officer	Purchase	3,700 @ $2.75	$10K	+0.3% of holding	+11.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,149,220	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	Marbach Mary	officer	Purchase	1,600 @ $3.52	$6K	ownership Δ n/a	−8.9%	not yet — horizon still open	1,600	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-14	Wilson Kevin Mark	officer	Purchase	8,020 @ $3.66	$29K	−50.0% of holding	−3.7%	not yet — horizon still open	8,020	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-14	Olsen Sarah Josephine	officer	Purchase	7,440 @ $3.62	$27K	ownership Δ n/a	−3.7%	not yet — horizon still open	7,440	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-14	Sohn Evan	director	Purchase	2,770 @ $3.58	$10K	−33.9% of holding	−3.7%	not yet — horizon still open	5,399	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	54,494 @ $2.53	$138K	−81.3% of holding	+9.9%	+20.0%	12,506	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-15	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	34,132 @ $2.63	$90K	−33.7% of holding	+12.8%	+15.4%	67,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	38,579 @ $2.79	$108K	−27.6% of holding	+8.6%	+16.7%	101,132	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-10	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	112,870 @ $3.14	$354K	−44.7% of holding	−8.1%	−8.2%	139,711	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	15,100 @ $309.90	$4.7M	−5.6% of holding	−2.8%	−2.5%	252,581	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-04	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	37,200 @ $3.63	$135K	−12.2% of holding	−26.2%	−16.7%	267,681	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	26,300 @ $3.44	$91K	−7.9% of holding	−27.6%	−19.1%	304,881	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-02	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	107,723 @ $3.08	$332K	−24.5% of holding	−20.7%	+12.1%	331,181	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	36,483 @ $3.13	$114K	−7.7% of holding	−35.3%	+11.8%	438,904	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-28	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	33,543 @ $3.44	$116K	−6.6% of holding	−41.6%	+4.4%	475,387	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-26	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	241,171 @ $3.10	$747K	−32.2% of holding	−32.4%	+22.5%	508,930	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	42,800 @ $3.05	$131K	−5.4% of holding	−26.3%	+26.0%	750,101	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Sale	106,969 @ $3.05	$326K	−11.9% of holding	−31.1%	+9.8%	792,901	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	Suarez Oscar	director	Award / grant	97,500	97,500	Form 4
2026-08-27	Sohn Evan	director	Award / grant	80,000	155,399	Form 4
2026-08-27	Cary Nicolas Claude	director	Award / grant	80,000	152,500	Form 4
2026-08-27	Highfield Tucker Montana	director	Award / grant	80,000	150,000	Form 4
2026-07-21	Sohn Evan	director	Award / grant	70,000	75,399	Form 4
2026-07-21	Olsen Sarah Josephine	officer	Award / grant	218,000	1,527,940	Form 4
2026-07-21	Cary Nicolas Claude	director	Award / grant	72,500	72,500	Form 4
2026-07-21	Olsen Sarah Josephine	officer	Award / grant	1,302,500	1,309,940	Form 4
2026-07-21	Marbach Mary	officer	Award / grant	312,500	314,100	Form 4
2026-07-21	Highfield Tucker Montana	director	Award / grant	70,000	70,000	Form 4
2026-07-21	Wilson Kevin Mark	officer	Award / grant	1,137,500	1,145,520	Form 4
2026-04-29	Sohn Evan	director	Other acquisition	12,146	2,629	Form 4
2026-04-29	Olsen Sarah Josephine	officer	Other acquisition	37,956	631,864	Form 4
2026-04-29	Olsen Sarah Josephine	officer	Other acquisition	631,864	0	Form 4
2026-04-29	Cary Nicolas Claude	director	Other acquisition	14,803	0	Form 4
2026-04-29	Highfield Tucker Montana	director	Other acquisition	12,146	0	Form 4
2026-04-29	Marbach Mary	officer	Other acquisition	311,908	0	Form 4
2026-04-29	Sohn Evan	director	Other acquisition	12,146	2,629	Form 4
2026-04-29	Cary Nicolas Claude	director	Other acquisition	14,803	0	Form 4
2026-04-29	Highfield Tucker Montana	director	Other acquisition	12,146	0	Form 4
2026-04-29	Marbach Mary	officer	Other acquisition	311,908	0	Form 4
2026-04-29	Olsen Sarah Josephine	officer	Other acquisition	37,956	631,864	Form 4
2026-04-29	Olsen Sarah Josephine	officer	Other acquisition	631,864	0	Form 4
2025-10-07	Olsen Sarah Josephine	officer	Award / grant	631,864	669,820	Form 4
2025-10-07	Kapustina Veronika	officer	Award / grant	631,864	631,864	Form 4
2025-08-07	CUTAIA RORY J.	director	Award / grant	12,146	899,870	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i