TOL · TickerCove

TOLToll Brothers, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $132.64 · now $132.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TOL has typically landed between $114.59 and $154.49 — a range of −13.6% to +16.5% from the issuance price $132.64.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($132.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$132.64 · 21% of range

$123.92 low$165.53 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.4%

typical move · IQR 13.6%

−13.6%worst (p90)+16.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where TOL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $132.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $132.64 (+0.0%)
typical $135.81 (+2.4%)
middle 50% $126.77–$144.86
90% range $114.59–$154.49

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−71.2%	−71.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−68.1%	−68.1%	+2.3%
2020-02-14	−67.2%	−67.2%	+1.2%
3 best
2020-03-23	+47.9%	+0.0%	+73.1%
2020-03-18	+46.3%	−8.0%	+59.2%
2009-07-14	+45.7%	+0.0%	+45.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+3.3%

n=20

Feb

50%

−1.0%

n=20

Mar

60%

−1.5%

n=20

Apr

55%

+2.7%

n=20

May

60%

+2.3%

n=20

Jun

45%

−1.7%

n=20

Jul

60%

+2.4%

n=20

Aug

65%

+3.7%

n=20

Sep

40%

−2.2%

n=20

Oct

50%

+0.6%

n=20

Nov

80%

+5.6%

n=20

Dec

50%

+0.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-18	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Sale	77,957 @ $156.58	$12.2M	−19.5% of holding	−5.5%	not yet — horizon still open	321,256	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-18	Parahus Robert	officer	Sale	7,500 @ $149.66	$1.1M	−24.2% of holding	−5.5%	not yet — horizon still open	23,457	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-15	East Stephen F.	director	Sale	1,000 @ $139.70	$140K	−6.9% of holding	−12.7%	not yet — horizon still open	13,442	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04	McLean John A	director	Sale	2,313 @ $153.43	$355K	−11.8% of holding	−7.5%	−20.3%	17,369	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Sale	27,014 @ $159.15	$4.3M	−7.8% of holding	−9.4%	−19.4%	321,256	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-24	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Sale	43,013 @ $160.39	$6.9M	−11.7% of holding	−10.1%	−17.2%	323,359	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Sale	2,103 @ $161.04	$339K	−0.7% of holding	−10.1%	−17.2%	321,256	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-15	SHAPIRO PAUL E	director	Sale	3,965 @ $146.68	$582K	−3.2% of holding	+11.3%	−8.8%	118,680	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Sale	20,145 @ $148.08	$3.0M	−7.0% of holding	−13.6%	−6.2%	265,972	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-05	SHAPIRO PAUL E	director	Sale	3,812 @ $147.65	$563K	−3.1% of holding	−8.6%	−5.2%	118,753	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-02	Pritchett Wendell E.	director	Sale	2,500 @ $138.71	$347K	−15.6% of holding	−3.5%	+3.8%	13,511	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-29	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Sale	25,000 @ $138.26	$3.5M	−8.0% of holding	−4.2%	+4.9%	286,117	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-22	Grubb Michael J.	officer	Sale	500 @ $140.63	$70K	−20.5% of holding	−4.9%	+8.0%	1,939	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-21	Parahus Robert	officer	Sale	9,831 @ $130.84	$1.3M	−33.3% of holding	−1.7%	+12.9%	19,692	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06	Sandstrom Katherine M	director	Purchase	68 @ $126.87	$9K	ownership Δ n/a	+14.8%	+12.4%	68	Form 4 · filed 72 days after the trade
2025-07-16	East Stephen F.	director	Sale	2,500 @ $115.33	$288K	−16.4% of holding	+8.9%	+13.4%	12,787	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-14	GARVEY CHRISTINE	director	Sale	770 @ $119.82	$92K	−6.2% of holding	+4.6%	+11.7%	11,590	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-14	Grubb Michael J.	officer	Sale	500 @ $120.00	$60K	−17.0% of holding	+4.6%	+11.7%	2,439	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11	SHAPIRO PAUL E	director	Sale	7,000 @ $106.97	$749K	−5.6% of holding	−9.6%	+16.7%	118,753	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	GARVEY CHRISTINE	director	Sale	420 @ $110.58	$46K	−3.1% of holding	+3.7%	+17.8%	13,186	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-30	Connor Martin P.	director	Sale	11,140 @ $126.07	$1.4M	−35.1% of holding	+5.6%	−13.1%	20,618	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-30	GARVEY CHRISTINE	director	Sale	204 @ $125.78	$26K	−2.6% of holding	+5.6%	−13.1%	7,728	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-24	GARVEY CHRISTINE	director	Sale	21 @ $126.77	$3K	−0.3% of holding	+7.3%	−13.7%	7,972	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-16	SHAPIRO PAUL E	director	Sale	3,837 @ $134.14	$515K	−3.1% of holding	+1.8%	−18.0%	119,937	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

147 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-18	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Option exercise	77,957	399,213	Form 4
2026-06-18	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Option exercise	77,957	0	Form 4
2026-03-04	McLean John A	director	Option exercise	2,313	19,682	Form 4
2026-03-04	McLean John A	director	Option exercise	2,313	0	Form 4
2026-02-27	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Option exercise	27,014	348,270	Form 4
2026-02-27	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Option exercise	27,014	77,957	Form 4
2026-02-24	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Option exercise	45,116	366,372	Form 4
2026-02-24	Yearley Douglas C. Jr.	director	Option exercise	45,116	104,971	Form 4
2026-01-31	Ziegler Gregg L.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,015	20,088	Form 4
2026-01-31	Ziegler Gregg L.	officer	Option exercise	4,897	0	Form 4
2026-01-31	Ziegler Gregg L.	officer	Option exercise	4,897	22,103	Form 4
2026-01-19	East Stephen F.	director	Option exercise	1,655	14,442	Form 4
2026-01-19	GARVEY CHRISTINE	director	Option exercise	1,655	11,955	Form 4
2026-01-19	East Stephen F.	director	Option exercise	1,655	0	Form 4
2026-01-19	McLean John A	director	Option exercise	1,628	17,369	Form 4
2026-01-19	McLean John A	director	Option exercise	1,628	0	Form 4
2026-01-19	Reinsdorf Judith A	director	Option exercise	1,295	1,295	Form 4
2026-01-19	Reinsdorf Judith A	director	Option exercise	1,295	0	Form 4
2026-01-19	GARVEY CHRISTINE	director	Option exercise	1,655	0	Form 4
2026-01-19	Grimes Karen H.	director	Option exercise	1,655	16,810	Form 4
2026-01-19	Grimes Karen H.	director	Option exercise	1,655	0	Form 4
2026-01-19	Kan Derek T.	director	Option exercise	1,548	6,388	Form 4
2026-01-19	Kan Derek T.	director	Option exercise	1,548	0	Form 4
2026-01-19	Pritchett Wendell E.	director	Option exercise	1,628	15,139	Form 4
2026-01-19	Pritchett Wendell E.	director	Option exercise	1,628	0	Form 4
2026-01-19	Sandstrom Katherine M	director	Option exercise	1,295	1,363	Form 4
2026-01-19	Sandstrom Katherine M	director	Option exercise	1,295	0	Form 4
2026-01-19	SHAPIRO PAUL E	director	Option exercise	1,655	120,335	Form 4
2026-01-19	SHAPIRO PAUL E	director	Option exercise	1,655	0	Form 4
2026-01-19	STOWELL SCOTT D	director	Option exercise	1,521	6,613	Form 4
2026-01-19	STOWELL SCOTT D	director	Option exercise	1,521	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	SHAPIRO PAUL E	director	Option exercise	3,965	122,645	Form 4
2026-01-15	SHAPIRO PAUL E	director	Option exercise	3,965	0	Form 4
2026-01-09	SHAPIRO PAUL E	director	Gift	73	118,680	Form 4
2025-12-24	GARVEY CHRISTINE	director	Gift	72	10,300	Form 4
2025-12-23	GARVEY CHRISTINE	director	Gift	1,218	10,372	Form 4
2025-12-22	Pritchett Wendell E.	director	Award / grant	1,550	1,550	Form 4
2025-12-22	Sandstrom Katherine M	director	Award / grant	1,440	1,440	Form 4
2025-12-22	East Stephen F.	director	Award / grant	1,623	1,623	Form 4
2025-12-22	Kan Derek T.	director	Award / grant	1,480	1,480	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i