Issued 2026-08-20 at $6.16 · now $6.16 (2026-08-10, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-20 close, TOI has typically landed between $3.83 and $9.44 — a range of −37.8% to +53.3% from the issuance price $6.16.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,532 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-04 – 2026-07-10 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,375 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-20 issuance close ($6.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-18, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TOI has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-20 close of $6.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.16 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.17 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.12–$7.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.83–$9.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,532 windows spanning 2020-06-04 to 2026-08-10. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-10-27 | −72.1% | −72.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-26 | −70.9% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-25 | −70.0% | −70.0% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-12-23 | +283.8% | +0.0% | +283.8% |
| 2024-12-18 | +278.0% | +0.0% | +278.0% |
| 2024-12-20 | +262.0% | −2.9% | +262.0% |
1,532 overlapping windows · 2020-06-04 – 2026-08-10 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+26.0%
n=6
Feb
33%
−6.2%
n=6
Mar
50%
−0.6%
n=6
Apr
67%
+16.3%
n=6
May
50%
−1.2%
n=6
Jun
50%
−6.9%
n=6
Jul
71%
+27.6%
n=7
Aug
43%
+0.4%
n=7
Sep
50%
−1.8%
n=6
Oct
50%
+9.2%
n=6
Nov
0%
−32.0%
n=6
Dec
100%
+32.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 18,000 @ $5.27 | $95K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,648,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Podnos Yale | officer | Sale | 17,974 @ $6.43 | $116K | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 259,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Podnos Yale | officer | Sale | 5,478 @ $6.35 | $35K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 259,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,000 @ $5.85 | $88K | +0.1% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,630,858 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 18,000 @ $5.02 | $90K | +0.2% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,615,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Podnos Yale | officer | Sale | 23,451 @ $5.38 | $126K | −8.3% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 259,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 12,000 @ $4.75 | $57K | +0.1% of holding | +23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,579,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 33,500 @ $4.07 | $136K | +0.3% of holding | +18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,567,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $4.09 | $123K | +0.3% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,529,358 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.05 | $20K | +0.0% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,534,358 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Kaushal Mohit | director | Sale | 38,433 @ $3.50 | $135K | −18.2% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,583 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-14 | Kaushal Mohit | director | Sale | 57,286 @ $3.50 | $201K | −21.4% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $3.10 | $62K | +0.2% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,499,358 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 27,429 @ $2.96 | $81K | +0.3% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,479,358 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $3.15 | $158K | +0.5% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,451,929 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 125,000 @ $3.11 | $389K | +1.2% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,401,929 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $3.35 | $84K | +0.2% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,276,929 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 75,000 @ $3.42 | $257K | +0.7% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,251,929 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 60,985 @ $3.29 | $201K | +0.6% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,176,929 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 263,000 @ $2.92 | $768K | +2.7% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,115,944 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Carter Robert Ross | officer | Sale | 247 @ $3.56 | $879 | −0.1% of holding | −26.5% | +48.0% | 235,122 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Hively Brad | director | Sale | 13,333 @ $3.77 | $50K | −1.9% of holding | −12.9% | +29.8% | 683,721 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Pacala Mark L | director | Sale | 46,630 @ $4.00 | $187K | −21.0% of holding | −9.9% | +5.4% | 174,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Pacala Mark L | director | Sale | 2,160 @ $4.00 | $9K | −1.0% of holding | −9.9% | +5.4% | 222,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Pacala Mark L | director | Sale | 1,210 @ $4.00 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | −9.9% | +5.4% | 221,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | M33 Growth I L.P. | director | Sale | 6,018,168 @ $3.09 | $18.6M | −43.1% of holding | +8.3% | −18.9% | 7,932,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | M33 Growth I L.P. | director | Sale | 681,832 @ $3.09 | $2.1M | −53.6% of holding | +8.3% | −18.9% | 590,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Hively Brad | director | Sale | 20,221 @ $4.06 | $82K | −3.1% of holding | −18.7% | −39.5% | 622,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | M33 Growth I L.P. | director | Sale | 673,676 @ $3.05 | $2.1M | −4.6% of holding | −15.3% | −0.3% | 13,950,557 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | M33 Growth I L.P. | director | Sale | 76,324 @ $3.05 | $233K | −5.7% of holding | −15.3% | −0.3% | 1,272,724 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Hively Brad | director | Sale | 1,867,605 @ $2.87 | $5.4M | −72.4% of holding | −26.5% | −22.5% | 712,033 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Hively Brad | director | Sale | 108,532 @ $2.87 | $312K | −15.2% of holding | −26.5% | −22.5% | 603,501 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | M33 Growth I L.P. | director | Sale | 1,796,468 @ $2.71 | $4.9M | −10.9% of holding | −14.6% | +23.6% | 14,624,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | M33 Growth I L.P. | director | Sale | 203,532 @ $2.71 | $552K | −13.1% of holding | −14.6% | +23.6% | 1,349,048 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | BARASCH RICHARD A | director | Purchase | 1,358,448 @ $1.04 | $1.4M | +325.6% of holding | +176.7% | +174.5% | 1,775,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Pacala Mark L | director | Purchase | 90,562 @ $1.04 | $94K | +67.4% of holding | +176.7% | +174.5% | 224,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | BARASCH RICHARD A | director | Purchase | 679,224 @ $0.13 | $85K | ownership Δ n/a | +176.7% | +174.5% | 679,224 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Johnson Karen Marie | director | Purchase | 36,224 @ $1.04 | $38K | +21.7% of holding | +176.7% | +174.5% | 203,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Virnich Daniel | officer | Purchase | 22,640 @ $1.04 | $24K | +3.2% of holding | +176.7% | +174.5% | 724,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Podnos Yale | officer | Purchase | 9,056 @ $1.04 | $9K | +12.9% of holding | +176.7% | +174.5% | 79,049 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Hively Brad | director | Purchase | 9,056 @ $1.04 | $9K | +1.4% of holding | +176.7% | +174.5% | 675,809 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Carter Robert Ross | officer | Purchase | 9,056 @ $1.04 | $9K | +29.8% of holding | +176.7% | +174.5% | 39,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Castle Jeremy | officer | Purchase | 9,056 @ $1.04 | $9K | +11.1% of holding | +176.7% | +174.5% | 90,386 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Pacala Mark L | director | Purchase | 42,281 @ $0.13 | $5K | ownership Δ n/a | +176.7% | +174.5% | 42,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Johnson Karen Marie | director | Purchase | 18,112 @ $0.13 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +176.7% | +174.5% | 18,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Virnich Daniel | officer | Purchase | 11,320 @ $0.13 | $1K | ownership Δ n/a | +176.7% | +174.5% | 11,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Hively Brad | director | Purchase | 4,528 @ $0.13 | $566 | ownership Δ n/a | +176.7% | +174.5% | 4,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Castle Jeremy | officer | Purchase | 4,528 @ $0.13 | $566 | ownership Δ n/a | +176.7% | +174.5% | 4,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Carter Robert Ross | officer | Purchase | 4,528 @ $0.13 | $566 | ownership Δ n/a | +176.7% | +174.5% | 4,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Podnos Yale | officer | Purchase | 4,528 @ $0.13 | $566 | ownership Δ n/a | +176.7% | +174.5% | 4,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Hively Brad | director | Award / grant | 27,108 | 710,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | STOLPER MARK | director | Award / grant | 31,124 | 56,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | TZOUMAKAS KIMBERLY JO | director | Award / grant | 29,116 | 46,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | McGeorge Anne | director | Award / grant | 41,165 | 332,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Kaushal Mohit | director | Award / grant | 33,133 | 205,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Johnson Karen Marie | director | Award / grant | 31,124 | 319,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Pacala Mark L | director | Award / grant | 30,120 | 286,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Podnos Yale | officer | Option exercise | 17,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Podnos Yale | officer | Option exercise | 17,974 | 277,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Podnos Yale | officer | Option exercise | 5,478 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Podnos Yale | officer | Option exercise | 5,478 | 265,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | STOLPER MARK | director | Award / grant | 25,833 | 25,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | TZOUMAKAS KIMBERLY JO | director | Award / grant | 17,185 | 17,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Virnich Daniel | officer | Other acquisition | 23,058 | 2,337,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Podnos Yale | officer | Other acquisition | 1,805 | 282,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Carter Robert Ross | officer | Other acquisition | 1,604 | 414,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Virnich Daniel | officer | Other acquisition | 98,534 | 2,360,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Carter Robert Ross | officer | Other acquisition | 20,320 | 416,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Podnos Yale | officer | Other acquisition | 16,173 | 284,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Langsam Jeffrey | officer | Award / grant | 70,270 | 127,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Podnos Yale | officer | Award / grant | 66,446 | 300,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Virnich Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 670,608 | 2,458,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Carter Robert Ross | officer | Award / grant | 202,914 | 436,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | England Kristin | officer | Award / grant | 55,743 | 153,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Virnich Daniel | officer | Other acquisition | 11,834 | 1,788,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Podnos Yale | officer | Other acquisition | 3,420 | 234,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Carter Robert Ross | officer | Other acquisition | 1,314 | 233,811 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Ling Gabriel | director | Award / grant | 37,037 | 333,539 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Johnson Karen Marie | director | Award / grant | 37,037 | 288,286 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Ling Gabriel | director | Award / grant | 46,296 | 296,502 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Johnson Karen Marie | director | Award / grant | 47,840 | 251,249 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Pacala Mark L | director | Award / grant | 35,494 | 256,761 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Pacala Mark L | director | Award / grant | 46,296 | 221,267 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | McGeorge Anne | director | Award / grant | 40,123 | 291,370 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Hively Brad | director | Award / grant | 41,667 | 664,647 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | McGeorge Anne | director | Award / grant | 67,901 | 251,247 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Kaushal Mohit | director | Award / grant | 40,123 | 268,302 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Kaushal Mohit | director | Award / grant | 50,926 | 228,179 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Hively Brad | director | Award / grant | 32,407 | 697,054 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | M33 Growth I L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 11,818 | 7,944,207 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.