Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.76 · now $11.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TNXP has typically landed between $5.83 and $17.43 — a range of −50.4% to +48.2% from the issuance price $11.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,646 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-02-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TNXP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.14 (-13.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8–$12.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.83–$17.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-28 | −87.3% | −87.3% | +1.0% |
| 2024-05-29 | −87.3% | −87.4% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-30 | −86.5% | −87.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-18 | +328.6% | +0.0% | +328.6% |
| 2022-12-19 | +322.7% | +0.0% | +346.7% |
| 2022-12-20 | +283.9% | +0.0% | +319.4% |
3,646 overlapping windows · 2012-02-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $13.79 | $28K | +22.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,005 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | BAGGER RICHARD H | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $12.60 | $13K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Taylor Carolyn E. | director | Purchase | 1,415 @ $10.55 | $15K | +338.5% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,833 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $11.79 | $59K | +124.8% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,005 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-08 | Stillwell Richard Newcomb | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $11.65 | $58K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $12.62 | $63K | +33.3% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $14.89 | $223K | +1500000.0% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,001 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-21 | Taylor Carolyn E. | director | Purchase | 418 @ $36.03 | $15K | ownership Δ n/a | −30.5% | −68.4% | 418 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Treco James | director | Purchase | 250 @ $36.00 | $9K | ownership Δ n/a | −32.2% | −69.7% | 250 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $21.55 | $86K | +80000.0% of holding | +58.0% | −44.6% | 4,005 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | SAENGER BRADLEY | officer | Other acquisition | 1,453 | 2,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bell Margaret Smith | director | Award / grant | 22,700 | 22,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Stillwell Richard Newcomb | director | Award / grant | 22,700 | 22,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | OLUKOTUN ADEOYE Y | director | Award / grant | 22,700 | 22,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Taylor Carolyn E. | director | Award / grant | 22,700 | 22,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | BAGGER RICHARD H | director | Award / grant | 22,700 | 22,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | GRANGE DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 22,700 | 22,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Treco James | director | Award / grant | 22,700 | 22,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Hunter James Randolph Jr | director | Award / grant | 22,700 | 22,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SULLIVAN GREGORY M | officer | Award / grant | 39,011 | 39,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Award / grant | 134,504 | 134,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Award / grant | 134,503 | 134,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SULLIVAN GREGORY M | officer | Award / grant | 39,012 | 39,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SAENGER BRADLEY | officer | Award / grant | 39,012 | 39,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SAENGER BRADLEY | officer | Award / grant | 39,011 | 39,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | MORRIS JESSICA EDGAR | officer | Award / grant | 39,012 | 39,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | MORRIS JESSICA EDGAR | officer | Award / grant | 39,011 | 39,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Fogarty Siobhan | officer | Award / grant | 39,012 | 39,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Fogarty Siobhan | officer | Award / grant | 39,011 | 39,011 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Hunter James Randolph Jr | director | Award / grant | 7,740 | 7,740 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | OLUKOTUN ADEOYE Y | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Stillwell Richard Newcomb | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Taylor Carolyn E. | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Treco James | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | Bell Margaret Smith | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | BAGGER RICHARD H | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-13 | GRANGE DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | SAENGER BRADLEY | officer | Award / grant | 25,792 | 25,792 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Fogarty Siobhan | officer | Award / grant | 13,500 | 13,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Award / grant | 123,958 | 123,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | MORRIS JESSICA EDGAR | officer | Award / grant | 29,291 | 29,291 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | SULLIVAN GREGORY M | officer | Award / grant | 29,017 | 29,017 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Other acquisition | 5 | 5 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | SULLIVAN GREGORY M | officer | Other acquisition | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Bell Margaret Smith | director | Other acquisition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | LEDERMAN SETH | director | Other acquisition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Treco James | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | BAGGER RICHARD H | director | Other acquisition | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | MORRIS JESSICA EDGAR | officer | Other acquisition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.