TNLTravel + Leisure Co.Consumer Cyclical · Travel Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $64.42 · now $64.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TNL has typically landed between $54.37 and $74.41 — a range of −15.6% to +15.5% from the issuance price $64.42.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($64.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TNL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $64.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$54.37worst · -15.6%$74.41best · +15.5%
  • now $64.42 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.2 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $61.08–$69.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $54.37–$74.41
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−67.2%−67.2%+0.0%
2020-02-21−64.7%−64.7%+0.0%
2020-02-19−64.7%−64.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-30+185.0%+0.0%+185.0%
2009-03-31+178.1%+0.0%+182.5%
2009-04-01+155.0%+0.0%+155.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.6%
n=20
Feb
70%
+3.6%
n=20
Mar
55%
−1.2%
n=20
Apr
50%
+9.8%
n=20
May
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Jun
45%
−1.5%
n=20
Jul
65%
+3.6%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
55%
−1.2%
n=20
Oct
65%
+0.0%
n=20
Nov
75%
+3.4%
n=20
Dec
75%
+3.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$78$572026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Duncan Thomas Michael2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $16K — Brown Michael Dean2026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $329K — Brown Michael Dean2026-08-04: 2 insider sales, $6.7M — ESFAHANI SY, MYERS JEFFREY2026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — RICHARDS GEOFFREY2026-07-23: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — MARSHALL KIMBERLY2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $38K — HERRERA GEORGE2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — MARSHALL KIMBERLY2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $160K — Post Denny Marie2026-04-23: 1 insider purchase, $66K — Hoag Erik D2026-04-17: 1 insider sale, $747K — Brown Michael Dean2026-04-16: 1 insider sale, $88K — Brown Michael Dean2026-04-15: 1 insider sale, $206K — Brown Michael Dean2026-04-14: 1 insider sale, $704K — Brown Michael Dean2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $123K — HERRERA GEORGE2026-03-17: 2 insider sales, $2.3M — Savina James J, HERRERA GEORGE2026-02-24: 2 insider sales, $1.9M — Brown Michael Dean …2026-02-23: 3 insider sales, $4.9M — Brown Michael Dean …2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $291K — ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINE2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $38K — HERRERA GEORGE2025-11-24: 2 insider sales, $4.1M — RICHARDS GEOFFREY …2025-11-13: 1 insider sale, $324K — RICHARDS GEOFFREY2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $296K — RICHARDS GEOFFREY2025-10-29: 1 insider sale, $72K — RICHARDS GEOFFREY2025-10-27: 2 insider sales, $5.1M — MYERS JEFFREY, RICHARDS GEOFFREY2025-10-24: 1 insider sale, $100K — ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINE2025-10-23: 3 insider sales, $1.9M — MYERS JEFFREY …2025-10-22: 2 insider sales, $1.2M — MARSHALL KIMBERLY, RICHARDS GEOFFREY2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $133K — HERRERA GEORGE2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $88K2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $133K2025-10: 9 open-market sales, $8.3M2025-11: 5 open-market sales, $4.7M2026-02: 6 open-market sales, $7.2M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $66K2026-04: 4 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $160K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $5.0M2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $8.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Duncan Thomas Michael — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer ESFAHANI SY — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MYERS JEFFREY — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RICHARDS GEOFFREY — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MARSHALL KIMBERLY — Sale on 2026-07-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HERRERA GEORGE — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MARSHALL KIMBERLY — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Post Denny Marie — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoag Erik D — Purchase on 2026-04-23, filed same daydirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-04-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HERRERA GEORGE — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed same dayofficer Savina James J — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HERRERA GEORGE — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Brown Michael Dean — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINE — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector HERRERA GEORGE — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer RICHARDS GEOFFREY — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RICHARDS GEOFFREY — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RICHARDS GEOFFREY — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer RICHARDS GEOFFREY — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer RICHARDS GEOFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MYERS JEFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed same dayofficer RICHARDS GEOFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINE — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer MYERS JEFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer MYERS JEFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer MYERS JEFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer MARSHALL KIMBERLY — Sale on 2025-10-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer RICHARDS GEOFFREY — Sale on 2025-10-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HERRERA GEORGE — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26Duncan Thomas MichaelofficerSale20,000 @ $74.16$1.5M−79.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,307Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06Brown Michael DeandirectorSale200 @ $79.00$16K−0.0% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open487,303Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-05Brown Michael DeandirectorSale4,150 @ $79.24$329K−0.8% of holding−15.2%not yet — horizon still open487,303Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04ESFAHANI SYofficerSale52,617 @ $78.00$4.1M−100.0% of holding−13.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04MYERS JEFFREYofficerSale34,000 @ $77.76$2.6M−33.4% of holding−13.1%not yet — horizon still open67,787Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale33,744 @ $75.65$2.6M−95.5% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open1,600Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-23MARSHALL KIMBERLYofficerSale32,691 @ $75.00$2.5M−100.0% of holding−6.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-16HERRERA GEORGEdirectorSale500 @ $75.16$38K−27.0% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open1,353Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-04MARSHALL KIMBERLYofficerSale28,000 @ $70.17$2.0M−45.8% of holding+8.9%not yet — horizon still open33,191Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Post Denny MariedirectorSale2,500 @ $63.83$160K−55.8% of holding+17.0%not yet — horizon still open1,977Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-23Hoag Erik DofficerPurchase1,000 @ $65.67$66Kownership Δ n/a−5.3%not yet — horizon still open1,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-17Brown Michael DeandirectorSale9,443 @ $79.11$747K−1.9% of holding−24.2%not yet — horizon still open487,303Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-16Brown Michael DeandirectorSale1,109 @ $79.13$88K−0.2% of holding−23.3%not yet — horizon still open487,303Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-15Brown Michael DeandirectorSale2,612 @ $79.00$206K−0.5% of holding−25.8%not yet — horizon still open487,303Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14Brown Michael DeandirectorSale8,910 @ $79.02$704K−1.8% of holding−26.7%not yet — horizon still open487,303Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-18HERRERA GEORGEdirectorSale1,748 @ $70.31$123K−48.5% of holding+5.0%not yet — horizon still open1,853Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17Savina James JofficerSale31,596 @ $70.38$2.2M−100.0% of holding+4.2%−20.0%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17HERRERA GEORGEdirectorSale1,214 @ $70.48$86K−25.2% of holding+4.2%−20.0%3,601Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Brown Michael DeandirectorSale25,738 @ $74.85$1.9M−5.7% of holding+0.9%−12.1%428,021Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Brown Michael DeandirectorSale200 @ $74.63$15K−0.0% of holding+0.9%−12.1%427,821Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Brown Michael DeandirectorSale48,329 @ $74.32$3.6M−10.1% of holding−0.2%−12.6%429,149Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Brown Michael DeandirectorSale17,203 @ $73.15$1.3M−3.5% of holding−0.2%−12.6%477,478Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Brown Michael DeandirectorSale1,328 @ $75.08$100K−0.3% of holding−0.2%−12.6%427,821Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINEofficerSale3,904 @ $74.61$291K−100.0% of holding−1.4%−16.0%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25HERRERA GEORGEdirectorSale559 @ $68.18$38K−100.0% of holding+4.6%−11.4%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale31,263 @ $65.29$2.0M−30.6% of holding+8.0%−7.7%70,866Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-24RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale31,262 @ $65.06$2.0M−44.1% of holding+8.0%−7.7%39,604Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-13RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale4,992 @ $65.00$324K−4.7% of holding+10.6%−10.8%102,129Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale4,556 @ $65.00$296K−4.1% of holding+10.7%−10.5%107,121Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-29RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale1,100 @ $65.00$72K−1.0% of holding+8.1%−2.8%111,677Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27MYERS JEFFREYofficerSale50,000 @ $66.38$3.3M−43.9% of holding+5.2%−6.9%63,789Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-27RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale26,838 @ $66.06$1.8M−19.2% of holding+5.2%−6.9%112,777Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-24ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINEofficerSale1,538 @ $65.08$100K−28.3% of holding+1.9%−4.9%3,904Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-23MYERS JEFFREYofficerSale21,362 @ $66.16$1.4M−15.0% of holding+1.2%−5.1%121,191Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-23MYERS JEFFREYofficerSale7,102 @ $68.48$486K−5.9% of holding+1.2%−5.1%114,089Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-23MYERS JEFFREYofficerSale300 @ $69.43$21K−0.3% of holding+1.2%−5.1%113,789Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-22MARSHALL KIMBERLYofficerSale16,500 @ $65.00$1.1M−29.1% of holding−9.9%−9.6%40,236Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-22RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale1,404 @ $64.50$91K−1.0% of holding−9.9%−9.6%139,615Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12HERRERA GEORGEdirectorSale2,200 @ $60.48$133K−79.7% of holding+2.2%+13.3%559Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-01Brown Michael DeandirectorPurchase1,500 @ $58.39$88K+0.4% of holding+3.8%+11.8%427,821Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-25RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale124,454 @ $62.56$7.8M−51.2% of holding−2.7%+3.5%118,718Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-24MYERS JEFFREYofficerSale110,885 @ $62.33$6.9M−43.8% of holding−0.4%+5.8%142,553Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24Savina James JofficerSale65,665 @ $62.18$4.1M−90.5% of holding−0.4%+5.8%6,882Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24Duncan Thomas MichaelofficerSale8,201 @ $62.24$510K−29.1% of holding−0.4%+5.8%20,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale4,703 @ $62.50$294K−17.4% of holding−0.4%+5.8%22,301Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-23MYERS JEFFREYofficerSale23,337 @ $60.00$1.4M−14.1% of holding−4.4%+9.0%142,553Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23MARSHALL KIMBERLYofficerSale16,500 @ $60.00$990K−22.5% of holding−4.4%+9.0%56,736Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale4,669 @ $60.50$282K−14.7% of holding−4.4%+9.0%27,004Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerSale4,440 @ $58.50$260K−12.3% of holding−4.4%+9.0%31,673Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-10MYERS JEFFREYofficerSale13,922 @ $58.00$807K−7.7% of holding−0.1%+20.9%165,890Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-08MYERS JEFFREYofficerSale6,863 @ $57.00$391K−3.7% of holding+3.2%+23.1%179,812Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-01Savina James JofficerSale15,396 @ $53.60$825K−69.1% of holding+8.0%+23.3%6,882Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12Post Denny MariedirectorSale5,500 @ $50.20$276K−55.1% of holding−3.9%+13.0%4,477Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-18HERRERA GEORGEdirectorSale6,336 @ $46.80$297K−69.7% of holding−6.0%+15.4%2,759Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-13Brown Michael DeandirectorPurchase2,000 @ $46.66$93K+0.5% of holding−6.9%+16.9%408,706Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-24Savina James JofficerSale26,442 @ $55.91$1.5M−100.0% of holding−9.0%+5.3%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

215 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINEofficerWithheld for tax1,6896,645Form 4
2026-08-25ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINEofficerAward / grant4,2918,334Form 4
2026-08-06Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise200487,503Form 4
2026-08-06Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise20019,976Form 4
2026-08-05Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise4,150491,453Form 4
2026-08-05Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise4,15020,176Form 4
2026-05-25Hoag Erik DofficerWithheld for tax9,65815,883Form 4
2026-05-25Hoag Erik DofficerAward / grant24,54125,541Form 4
2026-04-17Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise9,443496,746Form 4
2026-04-17Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise9,44324,326Form 4
2026-04-16Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise1,109488,412Form 4
2026-04-16Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise1,10933,769Form 4
2026-04-15Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise2,612489,915Form 4
2026-04-15Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise2,61234,878Form 4
2026-04-14Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise8,910496,213Form 4
2026-04-14Brown Michael DeandirectorOption exercise8,91037,490Form 4
2026-03-31HOLMES STEPHEN PdirectorAward / grant49454,211Form 4
2026-03-31MARTINEZ LUCINDAdirectorAward / grant403,047Form 4
2026-03-31RICKLES RONALD LdirectorAward / grant48853,558Form 4
2026-03-31Post Denny MariedirectorAward / grant39943,157Form 4
2026-03-31BUCKMAN JAMES EdirectorAward / grant1,188134,870Form 4
2026-03-31Brady Louise F.directorAward / grant80290,222Form 4
2026-03-31Wargotz Michael HdirectorAward / grant1,193135,521Form 4
2026-03-31HERRERA GEORGEdirectorAward / grant40246,735Form 4
2026-03-15Brown Michael DeandirectorWithheld for tax11,429487,303Form 4
2026-03-15MYERS JEFFREYofficerWithheld for tax5,225101,787Form 4
2026-03-15RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerWithheld for tax5,22537,998Form 4
2026-03-15Savina James JofficerWithheld for tax2,93931,596Form 4
2026-03-15MARSHALL KIMBERLYofficerWithheld for tax2,26661,191Form 4
2026-03-15ESFAHANI SYofficerWithheld for tax1,96052,617Form 4
2026-03-15ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINEofficerWithheld for tax1,1434,043Form 4
2026-03-15Duncan Thomas MichaelofficerWithheld for tax25326,091Form 4
2026-03-15ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINEofficerAward / grant2,9045,186Form 4
2026-03-15Duncan Thomas MichaelofficerAward / grant1,03726,344Form 4
2026-03-15Savina James JofficerAward / grant7,46834,535Form 4
2026-03-15MARSHALL KIMBERLYofficerAward / grant5,75763,457Form 4
2026-03-15Brown Michael DeandirectorAward / grant29,044498,732Form 4
2026-03-15MYERS JEFFREYofficerAward / grant13,277107,012Form 4
2026-03-15RICHARDS GEOFFREYofficerAward / grant13,27743,223Form 4
2026-03-15ESFAHANI SYofficerAward / grant4,97954,577Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.