Issued 2026-09-16 at $176.26 · now $176.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TMUS has typically landed between $159.71 and $195.07 — a range of −9.4% to +10.7% from the issuance price $176.26.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($176.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TMUS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $176.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $176.26 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $177.09 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $169.32–$184.86
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $159.71–$195.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-07-08 | −48.7% | −48.7% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-06 | −46.6% | −46.6% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-11 | −46.1% | −48.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-07-23 | +62.6% | +0.0% | +62.6% |
| 2012-06-27 | +59.5% | +0.0% | +59.5% |
| 2012-06-28 | +55.8% | +0.0% | +58.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$193.2B
market cap
$9.55
EPS (TTM)
18.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$88.3B
'20'25
Net income$11.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$18.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr18.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.07
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$339.14
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$153.05
- Analyst target · range $169.00–$260.00$237.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$176.26
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
−0.3%
n=18
Feb
63%
+4.0%
n=19
Mar
63%
+3.0%
n=19
Apr
63%
+0.9%
n=19
May
74%
+4.7%
n=19
Jun
47%
−2.5%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
47%
−1.6%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Oct
39%
−2.5%
n=18
Nov
50%
+2.9%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.9%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Drobac Daniel James | officer | Sale | 772 @ $178.33 | $138K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,118 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Freier Jon | officer | Sale | 4,799 @ $190.00 | $912K | −2.2% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,168 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Almeida Andre | director | Purchase | 5,097 @ $196.18 | $1.0M | +12.8% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,850 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Katz Michael J. | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $195.81 | $979K | −2.7% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,930 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Datar Srikant M. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $218.25 | $218K | −8.4% of holding | −10.4% | −31.7% | 10,843 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Datar Srikant M. | director | Sale | 3,291 @ $221.10 | $728K | −76.0% of holding | −4.3% | −26.6% | 1,038 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Nelson Mark Wolfe | officer | Sale | 2,329 @ $222.38 | $518K | −3.4% of holding | −0.1% | −29.8% | 65,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | SIEVERT G MICHAEL | director | Sale | 1,089 @ $221.85 | $242K | −0.9% of holding | −0.1% | −29.8% | 125,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | SIEVERT G MICHAEL | director | Sale | 13,911 @ $220.07 | $3.1M | −9.9% of holding | +0.5% | −29.1% | 126,785 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | SIEVERT G MICHAEL | director | Sale | 80,000 @ $214.94 | $17.2M | −36.2% of holding | +2.3% | −27.0% | 140,696 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Osvaldik Peter | officer | Sale | 27,000 @ $214.86 | $5.8M | −34.4% of holding | +1.2% | −26.3% | 51,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Nelson Mark Wolfe | officer | Sale | 6,274 @ $219.69 | $1.4M | −8.4% of holding | +1.2% | −26.3% | 68,006 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Nelson Mark Wolfe | officer | Sale | 10,240 @ $220.80 | $2.3M | −12.1% of holding | −2.3% | −28.9% | 74,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | CLAURE RAUL MARCELO | director | Sale | 550,000 @ $217.57 | $119.7M | −38.2% of holding | +2.3% | −28.6% | 891,204 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Long Letitia A | director | Sale | 1,457 @ $210.32 | $306K | −21.1% of holding | −6.8% | −21.6% | 5,438 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | SIEVERT G MICHAEL | director | Sale | 22,500 @ $214.25 | $4.8M | −7.3% of holding | −8.0% | −22.7% | 286,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | SIEVERT G MICHAEL | director | Sale | 22,500 @ $216.97 | $4.9M | −6.8% of holding | −8.0% | −23.0% | 308,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Katz Michael J. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $215.91 | $540K | −1.6% of holding | −8.0% | −23.0% | 156,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Gopalan Srini | director | Purchase | 9,800 @ $201.82 | $2.0M | +12.2% of holding | +0.2% | −15.0% | 90,258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 1,334 @ $220.44 | $294K | −0.0% of holding | −1.7% | −12.9% | 582,065,915 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 40 @ $221.26 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | −1.7% | −12.9% | 582,065,875 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 37,630 @ $220.48 | $8.3M | −0.0% of holding | −4.5% | −15.0% | 582,083,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 15,069 @ $221.42 | $3.3M | −0.0% of holding | −4.5% | −15.0% | 582,068,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 808 @ $222.04 | $179K | −0.0% of holding | −4.5% | −15.0% | 582,067,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 50,247 @ $220.53 | $11.1M | −0.0% of holding | −4.8% | −13.8% | 582,134,935 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 14,179 @ $221.23 | $3.1M | −0.0% of holding | −4.8% | −13.8% | 582,120,756 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 856 @ $220.03 | $188K | −0.0% of holding | −3.5% | −19.1% | 582,185,182 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 18,624 @ $220.14 | $4.1M | −0.0% of holding | −2.9% | −23.2% | 582,202,135 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 7,347 @ $221.61 | $1.6M | −0.0% of holding | −2.9% | −23.2% | 582,194,788 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 6,662 @ $222.48 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | −2.9% | −23.2% | 582,188,126 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 1,324 @ $223.37 | $296K | −0.0% of holding | −2.9% | −23.2% | 582,186,802 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 683 @ $225.75 | $154K | −0.0% of holding | −2.9% | −23.2% | 582,186,038 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 81 @ $224.02 | $18K | −0.0% of holding | −2.9% | −23.2% | 582,186,721 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 37,624 @ $227.06 | $8.5M | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | −23.2% | 582,220,938 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 13,108 @ $226.24 | $3.0M | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | −23.2% | 582,258,562 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 4,230 @ $223.94 | $947K | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | −23.2% | 582,275,313 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 3,643 @ $225.14 | $820K | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | −23.2% | 582,271,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 3,508 @ $223.24 | $783K | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | −23.2% | 582,279,543 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 1,266 @ $221.57 | $281K | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | −23.2% | 582,283,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 868 @ $220.23 | $191K | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | −23.2% | 582,284,317 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 179 @ $227.71 | $41K | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | −23.2% | 582,220,759 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 48,143 @ $229.16 | $11.0M | −0.0% of holding | −6.5% | −20.6% | 582,297,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 12,454 @ $229.96 | $2.9M | −0.0% of holding | −6.5% | −20.6% | 582,285,185 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 3,829 @ $228.27 | $874K | −0.0% of holding | −6.5% | −20.6% | 582,345,782 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 28,641 @ $230.05 | $6.6M | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | −23.6% | 627,524,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 14,739 @ $227.87 | $3.4M | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | −23.6% | 627,560,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 14,021 @ $227.25 | $3.2M | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | −23.6% | 627,574,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 7,025 @ $229.20 | $1.6M | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | −23.6% | 627,552,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 35,180 @ $229.31 | $8.1M | −0.0% of holding | −6.1% | −20.5% | 627,589,236 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 18,470 @ $227.32 | $4.2M | −0.0% of holding | −6.1% | −20.5% | 627,634,725 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 10,309 @ $228.25 | $2.4M | −0.0% of holding | −6.1% | −20.5% | 627,624,416 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 467 @ $229.78 | $107K | −0.0% of holding | −6.1% | −20.5% | 627,588,769 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 23,196 @ $226.48 | $5.3M | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −19.4% | 627,678,076 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 16,349 @ $225.71 | $3.7M | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −19.4% | 627,701,272 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 11,877 @ $227.76 | $2.7M | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −19.4% | 627,666,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 11,049 @ $228.84 | $2.5M | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −19.4% | 627,655,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 1,955 @ $229.70 | $449K | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −19.4% | 627,653,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 22,917 @ $226.67 | $5.2M | −0.0% of holding | −6.4% | −19.3% | 627,759,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 21,622 @ $228.80 | $4.9M | −0.0% of holding | −6.4% | −19.3% | 627,718,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | director | Sale | 19,277 @ $227.79 | $4.4M | −0.0% of holding | −6.4% | −19.3% | 627,739,853 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Nelson Mark Wolfe | officer | Award / grant | 103 | 66,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Drobac Daniel James | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 35,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Almeida Andre | director | Withheld for tax | 530 | 44,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Drobac Daniel James | officer | Withheld for tax | 171 | 35,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Drobac Daniel James | officer | Withheld for tax | 88 | 36,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Sambar Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 40,966 | 40,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | CLAURE RAUL MARCELO | director | Award / grant | 1,384 | 1,849,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Taylor Teresa | director | Award / grant | 1,384 | 8,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Long Letitia A | director | Award / grant | 272 | 7,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | KAVANAUGH JAMES J | director | Award / grant | 1,384 | 5,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Long Letitia A | director | Award / grant | 1,384 | 6,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Datar Srikant M. | director | Award / grant | 1,384 | 2,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Dannenfeldt Thomas | director | Award / grant | 1,384 | 2,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Nelson Mark Wolfe | officer | Award / grant | 98 | 65,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Dannenfeldt Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 311 | 727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Drobac Daniel James | officer | Withheld for tax | 37 | 36,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Nelson Mark Wolfe | officer | Award / grant | 86 | 65,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gopalan Srini | director | Withheld for tax | 2,835 | 144,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Almeida Andre | director | Withheld for tax | 367 | 39,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Drobac Daniel James | officer | Withheld for tax | 389 | 36,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Osvaldik Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,075 | 71,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Katz Michael J. | director | Withheld for tax | 7,142 | 181,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Nelson Mark Wolfe | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,949 | 76,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Freier Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,167 | 216,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Osvaldik Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,835 | 78,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Nelson Mark Wolfe | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,257 | 84,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Katz Michael J. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,571 | 186,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Freier Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,174 | 221,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | King Deeanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,108 | 62,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | SAW JOHN | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,840 | 45,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gopalan Srini | director | Withheld for tax | 2,705 | 147,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | King Deeanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,744 | 64,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | SAW JOHN | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,736 | 47,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Katz Michael J. | director | Award / grant | 9,076 | 190,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Almeida Andre | director | Award / grant | 13,654 | 40,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Freier Jon | officer | Award / grant | 23,491 | 223,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Freier Jon | officer | Award / grant | 8,067 | 225,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | King Deeanne | officer | Award / grant | 4,432 | 66,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Osvaldik Peter | officer | Award / grant | 19,086 | 79,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gopalan Srini | director | Award / grant | 60,031 | 150,289 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $15–50K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-02-23 | 2026-01-13 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.