Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.12 · now $3.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TMQ has typically landed between $2.22 and $4.33 — a range of −29.0% to +38.7% from the issuance price $3.12.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,595 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-04-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TMQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.12 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.17 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.71–$3.62
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.22–$4.33
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-15 | −54.6% | −54.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-16 | −50.4% | −50.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-06 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-09-12 | +302.9% | −3.8% | +302.9% |
| 2025-09-09 | +242.9% | +0.0% | +242.9% |
| 2025-09-15 | +233.3% | −5.2% | +297.2% |
3,595 overlapping windows · 2012-04-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | South32 Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,215,570 @ $2.17 | $17.8M | −44.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,379,741 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Hensley William L. Iggiagruk | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.44 | $222K | −73.0% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,531 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Hensley William L. Iggiagruk | director | Sale | 25,107 @ $4.40 | $110K | −57.5% of holding | −17.1% | −27.9% | 18,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.77 | $238K | −38.5% of holding | +8.8% | −27.8% | 80,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $4.73 | $95K | −13.3% of holding | +8.8% | −27.8% | 130,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Gowans James | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $7.50 | $750K | −29.9% of holding | −52.1% | −43.9% | 234,046 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Hayden William Beckwith | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $6.61 | $1.3M | −34.3% of holding | −41.4% | −40.9% | 382,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $6.77 | $677K | −28.4% of holding | −41.4% | −40.9% | 252,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Stairs Janice | director | Sale | 50,613 @ $6.56 | $332K | −9.1% of holding | −41.4% | −40.9% | 508,608 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $6.53 | $327K | −33.3% of holding | −41.4% | −40.9% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Sale | 19,181 @ $6.57 | $126K | −5.2% of holding | −41.4% | −40.9% | 352,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Sanders Elaine | officer | Sale | 399,000 @ $6.84 | $2.7M | −11.2% of holding | −35.3% | −37.8% | 3,149,561 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | WALTERS DIANA J | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $7.03 | $703K | −66.1% of holding | −35.3% | −37.8% | 51,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Hensley William L. Iggiagruk | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $6.39 | $639K | −69.6% of holding | −35.3% | −37.8% | 43,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Hayden William Beckwith | director | Sale | 64,294 @ $7.06 | $454K | −9.9% of holding | −35.3% | −37.8% | 582,865 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Sanders Elaine | officer | Sale | 50,599 @ $6.91 | $350K | −1.4% of holding | −35.3% | −37.8% | 3,548,561 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Hensley William L. Iggiagruk | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $1.74 | $87K | −25.8% of holding | −1.7% | +183.8% | 143,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
113 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | WALTERS DIANA J | director | Award / grant | 951 | 557,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | WALTERS DIANA J | director | Award / grant | 792 | 556,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Hensley William L. Iggiagruk | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 68,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Hensley William L. Iggiagruk | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | WALTERS DIANA J | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 101,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | WALTERS DIANA J | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | WALTERS DIANA J | director | Award / grant | 814 | 555,894 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-26 | KAPLAN THOMAS SCOTT | director | Gift | 540,406 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-26 | KAPLAN THOMAS SCOTT | director | Gift | 416,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Hayden William Beckwith | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Hensley William L. Iggiagruk | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Gowans James | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Stairs Janice | director | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | WALTERS DIANA J | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Giardini Tony | director | Award / grant | 360,000 | 360,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Giardini Tony | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Giardini Tony | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Sanders Elaine | officer | Award / grant | 260,000 | 260,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Sanders Elaine | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Sanders Elaine | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Sanders Elaine | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 3,347,895 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Giardini Tony | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 8,758,728 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Sanders Elaine | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 3,347,895 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Giardini Tony | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 8,758,728 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-07 | Sanders Elaine | officer | Option exercise | 183,334 | 3,332,895 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-07 | Giardini Tony | director | Option exercise | 366,668 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-07 | Sanders Elaine | officer | Option exercise | 183,334 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-07 | Giardini Tony | director | Option exercise | 366,668 | 8,698,728 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-07 | Giardini Tony | director | Option exercise | 366,668 | 8,698,728 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Gift | 45,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Stairs Janice | director | Award / grant | 3,551 | 644,091 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Hensley William L. Iggiagruk | director | Award / grant | 3,123 | 517,469 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | WALTERS DIANA J | director | Award / grant | 3,429 | 555,080 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Hayden William Beckwith | director | Award / grant | 2,816 | 483,209 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Lang Gregory A. | director | Award / grant | 3,123 | 614,032 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Gowans James | director | Award / grant | 3,701 | 563,843 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Giardini Tony | director | Option exercise | 1,123,400 | 8,332,060 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.